Saturday’s Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park has drawn a strong field befitting its massive $1.5 million purse. The 1 1/8-mile qualifier on the road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve has drawn a pair of Grade 1 winners, a couple of Grade 3 winners, two others who have placed in Kentucky Derby prep races, and a bevy of promising up-and-comers.

The proven Grade 1 winners are #2 Timberlake (9-5) and #7 Muth (8-5), the two morning-line favorites. Both bring formidable credentials to the table, and there’s a strong chance they’ll finish first and second.

Timberlake showed plenty of class at age 2. In a maiden special weight race at Ellis Park, he led all the way to win by 9 1/4 lengths over West Saratoga, who has since finished first in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes, third in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes, and second in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Following this flashy maiden victory, Timberlake finished second in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, a race in which he arguably stayed too close to a hot early pace. He got a better setup in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and pounced from just off the pace to win by 4 1/4 lengths, after which he wrapped up the season with a fourth-place finish in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA.

Timberlake kicked off 2024 in the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn last month. Despite racing wide, he comfortably closed from a couple lengths back to win by two lengths. His proven affinity for Oaklawn is a positive, and if Timberlake improves at all in his second start of the season, it will be a surprise if he finishes out of the top two.

Timberlake wion Okalawn's Rebel Stakes. (Renee Torbit.)

We can’t dismiss Muth as a serious win threat. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby four times, including with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Muth’s resume is just as strong as Timberlake’s, maybe even stronger.

Purchased for $2 million as a 2-year-old in training, Muth dominated his debut sprinting at Santa Anita, powering away to win by 8 3/4 lengths. He then finished second in the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes behind future Grade 1 Runhappy Del Mar Futurity winner Prince of Monaco.

Muth made his road to the Kentucky Derby debut in the 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes, in which he settled just off the pace before taking command to win by 3 3/4 lengths over Wine Me Up, who has since placed in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and Grade 2 DK Horse San Felipe Stakes. This set up a start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where Muth employed identical tactics to finish second, 1 3/4 lengths ahead of Timberlake.

Having emerged as arguably the second-best 2-year-old male of 2023 behind champion Fierceness, Muth started as a heavy favorite when making his 2024 debut in the Jan. 6 Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes sprinting seven furlongs at Santa Anita. Putting his typical pace-tracking tactics to good use, Muth took over in the homestretch to win by 2 3/4 lengths. He’s been training up a storm since then and should be fit for a strong showing while stretching out over 1 1/8 miles in the Arkansas Derby.

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Splitting Timberlake and Muth is difficult, but we might not have to do so. Many bettors will mix #9 Mystik Dan (5-2) into their top two picks, given that he obliterated the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn last month by eight lengths. Mystik Dan benefited from racing along the inside on a muddy track that may have given an advantage to rail runners. He’d previously finished fifth on a dry track in the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, so the Southwest is something of an outlier in Mystik Dan’s past performances, and there’s a chance he’ll regress in the Arkansas Derby.

If we exclude Mystik Dan from our top two picks, we should be able to secure a betting profit by boxing Timberlake and Muth to finish first and second (in either order) on exacta and trifecta tickets. For third place, we’ll include Mystik Dan but also #5 Liberal Arts (15-1), winner of the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes on the road to the Kentucky Derby last year.

Liberal Arts started 2024 in the Southwest, where he saved ground before rallying outside in the homestretch to finish third, 8 1/4 lengths behind Mystik Dan. Shifting off the rail wasn’t ideal given the track bias, so if Liberal Arts catches a fair track in the Arkansas Derby and improves in his second run of the season, there’s a chance he’ll turn the tables of Mystik Dan.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 exacta: box 2,7 ($10)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 12th race, $5 exacta box 2,7

Wagering Strategy on a $20 Budget

$10 exacta: box 2,7 ($20)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 12th race, $10 exacta box 2,7

Wagering Strategy on a $50 Budget

$12 exacta: box 2,7 ($24)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 12th race, $12 exacta box 2,7

$9 trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 9 ($18)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 12th race, $9 trifecta 2,7 with 2,7 with 9

$4 trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 5 ($8)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 12th race, $4 trifecta 2,7 with 2,7 with 5

Good luck, and enjoy the race!