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2024 Kentucky Downs Preview: Betting Tips for the Elite All-Turf Meet
GamblingThe Kentucky Thoroughbred racing circuit will take a brief two-week detour to Kentucky Downs at the end of August and beginning of September, so don’t blink, because if you do you might miss some of the richest racing in all of North America.
High-stakes turf racing is returning to Kentucky Downs for a meet lasting seven days at the racecourse located within shouting distance of the Kentucky-Tennessee border not far from Nashville. The 2024 Kentucky Downs meet will consist of seven dates – Aug. 29 and 31, and Sept. 1, 5, 7, 8, and 11. Expect big fields for all of the seven days. Kentucky Downs leads the nation in average field size based on its 2023 meet with 10.2 starters per route and 10.7 starters in sprints.
Kentucky Downs is home to a 1 5/16-mile turf course featuring a non-oval shape and undulations up and down hills with subtle elevation changes throughout the course and a sweeping turn leading into a quarter-mile stretch run, making Kentucky Downs a unique course in North America.
If you’re traveling in the region, admission to Kentucky Downs is free for the tailgating area and another section near the top of the stretch. Ticketed areas are located in midstretch and all the way to the finish line and the adjacent paddock. Click here for more information.
Kentucky Downs Jockeys and Trainers
Top national jockeys and trainers will be regulars at the Kentucky Downs meet. Based on recent history including the 2023 meet, the top jockeys should include Tyler Gaffalione (12 wins in 2023), Joel Rosario (seven wins), Florent Geroux (six wins), Jose Ortiz (five wins), and Irad Ortiz Jr. (four wins). Some of the aforementioned riders will become bigger factors during Kentucky Downs’ second week of action after Saratoga closes. Other jockeys to watch for who did well in 2023 were Declan Cannon (four wins), Cristian Torres (five wins), and Luis Saez.
The top jockeys will be vying for mounts from the top trainers at the meet, which are expected to be led by Mike Maker, who has won more Kentucky Downs training titles than anyone else and whose barn is coming off a standout performance at the Saratoga meet. The leading Kentucky Downs trainer in 2023, however, was Brendan Walsh, who won eight races from 28 starters for a 29% rate. Maker was tied for second in 2023 with five wins along with Saffie Joseph Jr., while Jonathan Thomas also had a good meet with four winners.
Turf trainers like Graham Motion, Mark Casse, Shug McGaughey, Bill Mott, and Wesley Ward also will be on hand with several live contenders. Others showing up frequently in the entries will include Brian Lynch, Joe Sharp, Rusty Arnold, Vicki Oliver, Eddie Kenneally, Christophe Clement, and Phil D’Amato. Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher will win some races but tend to focus more on Saratoga. Brad Cox, ever a factor on the Kentucky circuit, mostly gears up for Churchill Downs at this time of year. Steve Asmussen will have some starters but generally doesn’t train a lot of turf winners at this level.
Gigantic Purses and Plentiful Stakes Races
Why do all these horses and horsemen show up to Kentucky Downs? Well, it’s the purses of course. Boosted by revenue from its attached casino, Kentucky Downs leads the nation with average daily purses over $5 million, based on total purses of the meet of $37 million (including $15 million in Kentucky-bred funds).
A big portion of the daily purses at Kentucky Downs is distributed via the extensive program of 18 stakes races including nine graded stakes. Six races at the short meet will offer purses of $2 million or more, including the new Grade 3 DK Horse Nashville Derby Invitational (formerly the Dueling Grounds Derby), which will offer a base purse of $1.9 million that could reach as high as $3.1 million including Kentucky-bred money.
The meet will host a pair of Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races that offer their winners automatic expense-paid berths into various Breeders’ Cup races. The Kentucky Downs “Win and You’re In” races at the 2024 meet will be the Grade 2 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Stakes (Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf) on Sept. 7, and the Grade 2 Ainsworth Turf Sprint Stakes (Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint), both held on Sept. 7. That day at Kentucky Downs has been dubbed the FanDuel TV U.S. Open Turf Championship day, and it will be comprised of a 12-race card with purses reaching as much as $13 million, which would make it North America’s second richest race day of the year behind only Breeders’ Cup Saturday.
The overnight purse structure is also very high at all levels. Kentucky-bred maiden special weight races will run for $170,000 purses, and Kentucky-bred allowance races will be worth $220,000.
Large Fields Equal Large Payoffs
With huge purse money being offered at such a short meet, it is no wonder Kentucky Downs attracts the highest average field sizes, which is also a benefit for horseplayers. With large field sizes, you can usually also expect large mutuel payoffs because the two almost always go hand-in-hand at Kentucky Downs.
The national average of winning favorites always hovers around 30-33%, but at Kentucky Downs it is only 26% based on last year. This is not to say the Kentucky Downs races are impossible to handicap, however, because roughly 65-70% of Kentucky Downs races are won by one of the first four favorites. This means that astute horseplayers can enjoy a solid winning edge handicapping Kentucky Downs.
Horses from Everywhere Fill the Races at KD
The top turf horses come to race at Kentucky Downs from all points, including Europe. Where do most of the Kentucky Downs winners invade from? It should be no surprise to handicappers that the most Kentucky Downs winners last raced at Saratoga. The next best place to look for next-out Kentucky Downs winners is with horses that last raced Ellis Park, followed by Kentucky horses with longer layoffs that were last seen at Churchill Downs or even Keeneland. Other tracks that have been known to produce next-out Kentucky Downs winners include Horseshoe Indianapolis, Delaware Park, and Del Mar. The horses arriving from Europe/England are targeting KD more and more each year and are difficult to ignore. The one thing that Kentucky Downs has never really been a haven for is winning first-time starters, which are relatively rare at the meet.
The Kentucky Downs season is here. Don’t miss it!