The $500,000 Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap at Oaklawn Park brings together a field of 10 sprinters and the biggest question among the group is whether Tejano Twist can repeat his visually impressive effort four weeks ago when victorious in the Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes as the 9-5 betting choice. Three races prior to that he won the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes and with a win his career earnings would exceed the $1 million threshold. Candy Man Rocket is another recent stakes winner, having captured the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes in his most recent race on February 25. Edge to Edge hopes to improve off a third-place effort in the Whitmore, as does Whitmore eighth place finisher Cogburn. Another horse proven in similar stakes is Surveillance, who won three stakes in a row from November through January including the Douglas F. Kenner Stakes in his most recent race. Radical Right finished second in both the City of Laurel Stakes and Grade 3 Palos Verdes Stakes before a troubled fourth in the Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap last month and appears to fit with this group. Pirate Rick is winless in four stakes tries while Strobe and Skelly enters a stakes for the first time off wins at lower levels. Payne finished second in the Speightstown Sprint Stakes last May and has finished first or second in his last three races.
Analysis and Main win contenders:
The early pace of this race should be contested and much faster than average and appears to be highly likely to determine the winner. We start with Edge to Edge, who has led from the start in three straight races, winning two of the three. He draws the rail, and that position makes it imperative he has to try to lead from the start, particularly with four other horses having the same style. However, Edge to Edge is unlikely to have the lead to himself because Skelly has also earned his last two wins leading from start to finish and has drawn the post right next to Edge to Edge in the gate. Then there’s Pirate Rick, who has tried to lead early in his last eight races, winning the first four in a row in wire-to-wire fashion. More fuel for the fire is in the form of Cogburn, who has led after a quarter mile in all seven career starts. On the far outside is Strobe, who has won four of five career starts, each of them when leading from start to finish. It might only take two of the five to battle early, setting a much faster early pace than average even for this level of competition, in which case it should be pretty difficult for any of the early leaders and stalkers to have enough energy left to hold off horses who can come from behind.
With that in mind we should start with Surveillance as one horse who can win the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. After winning three of his first 19 races, something changed last fall when Surveillance first won the Thanksgiving Classic Stakes with a strong 103 Equibase Speed Figure, before improving to a career best 106 figure in the Richard R. Scherer Memorial Stakes in December. Four weeks later Surveillance won the Douglas F. Kenner Stakes. With his only start since that win on turf and irrelevant when assessing his chances for success back on dirt, that 106 figure effort from the Scherer Memorial is the one we should use to compare to the logical favorite, Tejano Twist, who earned a 113 figure in the Whitmore Stakes last month. Setting aside that effort, Tejano Twist earned 107, 106 and 108 figures in his three starts prior to that. With that in mind and knowing Surveillance will also benefit from the fast early pace, there is a chance he can post the upset win in this year’s Count Fleet Sprint Handicap.
Tejano Twist has now finished first or second in 12 of 19 dirt sprint races but his best have all come since this past fall, when earning his first win after an 11-month dry spell. He’s won three of four since, including the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes in November with a 108 figure before tying his career-best 113 figure last month in the Whitmore Stakes. In that race Cogburn and Edge to Edge battled head-and-head for the first half-mile before fading to third and eighth, respectively. Considering in this year’s Count Fleet there could be as many as five horses battling for the lead from the start, it is very likely Tejano Twist will be coming on strongly once more and another very strong effort should be expected.
Payne has a very similar record to that of Tejano Twist, identical in fact with six wins and seven second place finishes in his career. What’s interesting is as an 8-year-old, Payne has run some of the best races of his career. Claimed by Steve Asmussen for himself in November, Payne finished second to Edge to Edge when that one was able to control the pace all alone from start to finish. Just the same, Payne earned a strong 107 figure, before earning a similar 105 figure winning a classified allowance race in late January. In his most recent race on March 9, Payne rallied from sixth to make the lead with an eighth of a mile to go but was passed mid-stretch, ending up second. Being a beneficiary of the likely hot pace and having shown a fondness for Oaklawn, where he has never finished worse than second in three races, Payne is another with a strong chance to be mowing down the tiring leaders in the stretch.
Two more stalkers and closers should be considered but may be a cut below the three above. Candy Man Rocket has won three in a row including the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, but his best two figures are 102 and 100 which are fairly inferior to the 106 to 113 figures earned recently by Surveillance, Payne and Tejano Twist. Then there’s Radical Right, who was favored in the Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap last month but who broke in the air as the gates opened. He finished second in the Palos Verdes Stakes prior to that in February with a 107 figure and finishing fast from fifth to second in the last eighth. As such he could grab a piece of the purse in this race as well.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Cogburn (106), Edge to Edge (117), Pirate Rick (110), Skelly (111) and Strobe (114).
Win Contenders:
Surveillance
Tejano Twist
Payne
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Pick 4
9-1-6-2
9-1-6-2
$19,620
Pick 5
1-9-1-6-2
1-9-1-6-2
$2,395
Daily Double
6-2
6-2
$110
Superfecta
2-10-5-7
2-10-5-7
$56
Trifecta
2-10-5
2-10-5
$37
Pick 4
9-1-6-2
9-1-6-2
$19,620
Pick 5
1-9-1-6-2
1-9-1-6-2
$2,395
Daily Double
6-2
6-2
$110
Superfecta
2-10-5-7
2-10-5-7
$56
Trifecta
2-10-5
2-10-5
$37
