The $400,000, Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Saturday at Churchill Downs showcases some talented 2-year-olds who may be on the Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve in short order as they mature and turn 3 in just over a month.
This group of eight features a pair of recent stakes-placed horses in Risk It and Dancing Groom. Risk It has local experience as he enters the race off a runner-up effort in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes when last seen in September, while Dancing Groom finished third last month in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. A couple of others have run in stakes but not as well, such as Awesome Road, who finished seventh in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity in October off a strong maiden win in his debut. Nomos tries dirt for the first time and like Awesome Road won at first asking (in August) then finished fourth and 12th, respectively, in two stakes races on the grass, the most recent being the Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes. Stretch Ride hasn’t run in a stakes yet but is undefeated in two starts including one at 1 1/16 miles, last month, the same distance as the Kentucky Jockey Club. Real Men Violin has never finished farther back than third in five races, including his most recent in October when he earned his first win. Honor Marie stretches out to two turns off a foundation of two sprints, finishing second in the most recent one, and also tries stakes competition for the first time. One Red Cent rounds out the field as he tries two turns on dirt and steps up in class into a stakes race for the first time with a 1-for-7 career record.
Top contenders:
Risk It showed a lot of ability and promise in his debut this past summer at Saratoga when easily winning in a field of seven. The 91 Equibase Speed Figure earned in his debut was very strong as only two other horses in the field have run that fast – Awesome Road (93) in his debut, and Real Men Violin (91) in his most recent race. He was moved way up in class off the maiden win, and Risk It wasn’t disgraced when second of eight in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. The winner of the race, West Saratoga, had already run five times and the difference in experience paid off as West Saratoga outfinished Risk It in the last quarter of a mile after being about two lengths farther back in the early stages. Nevertheless, Risk It was very tenacious in holding onto second over a fast-closing Liberal Arts. That could be significant, as Liberal Arts returned to win the Street Sense Stakes on Oct. 29, improving his figure from 80 to 92. Risk It has been rested since the Iroquois and likely pointed to this race by top trainer Steve Asmussen, who won the 2019 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes with Silver Prospector and has also won this race two other times this century. As will be Risk It’s first attempt around two turns, it must be noted (per a Race Lens query) that his sire Gun Runner has a pretty good record with 2-year-olds in dirt route stakes races, examples being this year’s Breeders’ Futurity winner Locked and 2021 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Echo Zulu. Based on his second-place finish in a similar stakes and his breeding, Risk It may be the one to beat in this year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
Stretch Ride is the only horse in the field to have won at the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Kentucky Jockey Club. He did so in his most recent start on Oct. 14 at Keeneland, and he improved to an 88 figure from an 83 figure in his debut at six furlongs one month earlier. In his victory last month, Stretch Ride showed a bit of maturity as he settled in third after a quarter-mile, moved up to second after a half-mile had been run, and then took over and accelerated away from the other six horses. Trainer Dale Romans saddled Smiley Sobotka for a runner-up effort in the 2020 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes off a maiden win, but Stretch Ride is further along as he beat winners in that allowance race last month. Stretch Ride is a son of Street Sense, who was a champion 2-year-old on the track and the sire of 2019 Breeders’ Futurity winner and multiple stakes winner Maxfield. Those credentials make Stretch Ride a strong contender in this field.
Dancing Groom didn’t do much at all in his debut in July when he was sixth at 40.50-1 odds but he received much more support from bettors second time out at the end of August when he was sent to post at 4.70-1. He rewarded his backers with a strong five-length win in a field of nine going one mile on dirt at Saratoga. He was then moved up in class for the Champagne Stakes at Belmont at the Big A on Oct. 7, held around a one-turn mile, and in that race Dancing Groom was no match for winner Timberlake, finishing third by 10 ½ lengths and 6 ¼ lengths behind runner-up General Partner. Just the same, Dancing Groom was put into a long drive with three-eighths of a mile to go in the Champagne, and although the top two had drawn off, this colt passed five horses to easily secure third. Perhaps as importantly, the Champagne turned out to be a productive race, as the sixth-place finisher has subsequently won a stakes race and the seventh-place finisher, Fierceness, posted the upset in this year’s FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. Considering the progression Dancing Groom has made – from a 59 figure in his debut, to 73, and then to 85 – it could be this colt is just getting into the best form of his 2-year-old season and as such may be capable of posting the upset in this race.
Honorable mention goes to Real Men Violin, who has run very well in both races at Churchill Downs in his career. He finished second at this distance in September with an 81 figure. Then, after an irrelevant try on turf where he finished third, he won nicely on Oct. 29 when back on dirt, improving to a 91 figure. Trainer Ken McPeek won this race in 2021 with Smile Happy, and Real Men Violin could also be this good, particularly as he posted an exceptional morning drill coming into the race on Nov. 18 which was the best of 54 at the distance on the day.
The rest of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in a similar race, is Awesome Road (93), Honor Marie (90), Nomos (76) and One Red Cent (82).
Win Contenders:
Risk It
Stretch Ride
Dancing Groom
Superfecta
2-3-6-7
2-3-6-7
$71
Super High Five
2-3-6-7-1
2-3-6-7-1
$1,301
Trifecta
2-3-6
2-3-6
$103
Superfecta
2-3-6-7
2-3-6-7
$71
Super High Five
2-3-6-7-1
2-3-6-7-1
$1,301
Trifecta
2-3-6
2-3-6
$103
