The $1 million Stephen Foster Stakes Saturday at Ellis Park returns to Grade 1 status in 2023 after three years as a Grade 2 event, having been run from 2002 through 2018 at this top level. The 1 1/8-mile race, which is a “Win and You’re In” prep for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic this fall and has been held every prior year at Churchill Downs, has been won by some of the best racehorses over the past couple of decades, examples being Saint Liam, Curlin, Fort Larned, Blame, and Gun Runner.
This year’s edition brings together a field of eight with nearly $10 million in career earnings between them. Among the eight, Proxy is one of two which have won at this lofty Grade 1 level, having captured the Clark Stakes Presented by Norton Healthcare last fall. Most recently, Proxy won the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, defeating Last Samurai by a head, with Stilleto Boy another nose behind in third. Prior to the Oaklawn Handicap, Stilleto Boy won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Presented by Yaamava’ Resort & Casino by a neck over Proxy. It also must be noted that Last Samurai proved he fit against this level when he won the 2022 Oaklawn Handicap. West Will Power brings a very consistent record of having finished first or second in 13 of 17 career races, including a second-place finish behind Proxy in the Clark last fall. Since then, West Will Power won the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard at the distance of the Stephen Foster. Rattle N Roll has won three Grade 3 stakes in a row, most recently the Blame Stakes at the mile-and-an-eighth distance of the Foster. He is trained by Ken McPeek, who also saddles Smile Happy, winner of the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes Presented by Sentient Jet in his most recent race. Speed Bias stepped into stakes company for the first time last month and was beaten just a nose at the finish in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special Stakes Presented by Bulleit Bourbon by Rattle N Roll. Happy American rounds out the field, with his biggest win coming in the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard last January, and it’s worth noting that he has been beaten soundly by Rattle N Roll in his two most recent races.
Top contenders:
Proxy is a Grade 1 winner being tested in a Grade 1 race, which can be a strong factor even in a field in which there are some up-and-coming stars. That win came last November in the Clark Stakes, the fall equivalent of the Stephen Foster, at the same level and distance. His Clark score followed a four-month layoff and a third-place finish in the 2022 Foster. Not only does Proxy return from a similar layoff, as he last ran in April, that specific race was a career-best effort at this distance. He earned a 113 Equibase Speed Figure when gamely prevailing in the Oaklawn Handicap by a head over Last Samurai, with Stilleto Boy another nose back in third. Joel Rosario has ridden Proxy to his last two wins and is aboard again in the Foster. Proxy draws the ground-saving rail post position and has the ability to win from just off the pace as he did in the Clark, or to come from mid-pack, as he was when fifth of seven in the early stages of the Oaklawn Handicap. All in all this appears to make Proxy the horse to beat in this year’s Stephen Foster Stakes.
Before losing to Proxy by a head and a nose in the Oaklawn Handicap in April, Stilleto Boy won the Santa Anita Handicap by a neck over Proxy a little over one month earlier. He became a graded stakes winner at 1 1/8-miles when he captured the Californian Stakes in April of last year with a 112 figure, and in his race after the Santa Anita Handicap Stilleto Boy was very game in the Oaklawn Handicap and earned the same 113 figure as Proxy. Jockey Kent Desormeaux was aboard for both of the horse’s recent “A” efforts and he rides back Saturday, so there is every reason to believe Stilleto Boy will be in the thick of the action right down to the wire once more.
Comments about the rest:
Last November in the Clark, West Will Power led from the start but was no match for Proxy in the late stages and ended up losing by three-quarters of a length. After nearly three months off, West Will Power once again set the pace from the start in the Razorback Handicap but again settled for second, this time behind Last Samurai. Taking a stalking position in second for the first half-mile of the New Orleans Classic Stakes in March, West Will Power drew away convincingly late and earned a 115 figure, which would be very competitive if repeated in the Foster. However, when he returned to the style of wanting to lead early, West Will Power could only manage third when beaten by Smile Happy in the Alysheba Stakes back in May. In this year’s Foster it appears Speed Bias (who has an inside draw in the gate) will have the advantage in the early stages, and since both Proxy and Stilleto Boy appear to have stronger late kicks, West Will Power may end up settling for a minor position once more.
Last Samurai won the 2022 Oaklawn Handicap at the distance of the Foster, a career-best effort at the time with a 108 figure. Since then, he has won two of 11 races and lost two others by a head and a neck. One of those narrow defeats was to Proxy in the Oaklawn Handicap in April. That effort earned a 113 figure, competitive in the Foster if repeated, but I have concerns as to whether it is repeatable. This is because Last Samurai’s only effort since the Oaklawn Handicap resulted in a fourth-place finish behind Smile Happy and West Will Power in the Alysheba Stakes.
I don’t think that the two 4-year-olds trained by Ken McPeek, Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll, are ready for this level of competition, although it must be noted the last two winners of the Stephen Foster both won the Alysheba Stakes one month earlier just as Smile Happy did this year. Although Smile Happy earned a 117 figure in the Alysheba, I have concerns about whether kind of effort is repeatable against this field. Rattle N Roll may have won three straight stakes races, but all were at the Grade 3 level and his figures ranging from 105 to 107, although consistent, don’t show a pattern of improvement to get to the 113 to 117 level it will take to win this year’s Foster. Speed Bias earned a 107 figure when beaten a nose by Rattle N Roll in the Pimlico Special Stakes last month, but even with some improvement he may not be able to step up from Grade 3 to Grade 1 stakes competition and run as well. Happy American earned 100 and 102 figures when finishing fourth, then third, in his last two races behind Rattle N Roll and appears overmatched.
Win Contenders:
Proxy
Stilleto Boy
Honorable mention and possible for a minor award:
West Will Power
Last Samurai
Daily Double
9-6
9-6
$331
Superfecta
6-4-8-7
6-4-8-7
$264
Super High Five
6-4-8-7-5
6-4-8-7-5
$14,927
Trifecta
6-4-8
6-4-8
$188
Daily Double
9-6
9-6
$331
Superfecta
6-4-8-7
6-4-8-7
$264
Super High Five
6-4-8-7-5
6-4-8-7-5
$14,927
Trifecta
6-4-8
6-4-8
$188
