Pletcher’s Patience Could Pay Dividends in 2023 Clark Stakes

November 20th, 2023 by Mike Curry

Clark Stakes Churchill Downs horse racing handicapping betting Gasoline Pletcher Trademark Stage Raider First Mission Il Miracolo

Gasoline, shown winning an allowance race Nov. 4 at Churchill Downs, is set to make his first stakes start Nov. 24 in the Clark Stakes on the same track. (Coady Photography)

Gasoline has enjoyed a mini-breakout this year after an up and down 3-year-old season in 2022, and the Curlin gelding looks like he could be starting to really figure things out entering the $600,000 Clark Stakes Presented by Norton Healthcare Nov. 24 at Churchill Downs.

The 1 1/8-mile Clark some years is an opportunity for a key contender in the older dirt male division or even Horse of the Year chase to deliver a closing argument of sorts for the Eclipse Awards. Absent that type of headline contender for this year’s edition, the 2023 Clark could be a golden opportunity for #4 Gasoline (5-1) to fire in his stakes debut on a main track at Churchill Downs, where he has won his last two starts impressively.

Gelded before an unplaced finish in his final race of 2022, Gasoline has been very good in four races this season for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. He led from start to finish on a sloppy track at Aqueduct in a 1 3/16-mile race in January and then faded late and finished third, beaten by 1 ¾ lengths, at the same distance at Aqueduct about six weeks later.

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Gasoline returned from a seven-month layoff Sept. 21 at Churchill Downs and rallied from off the pace to win by a neck before a runaway win at the same track and 1 1/16-mile distance Nov. 4 that produced a career-best 112 Equibase Speed Figure.

With a win at 1 3/16 miles earlier this year and strong performances on this main track in his last two starts, the class test looks to be the last hurdle for Gasoline, who has been patiently handled by Pletcher through his 4-year-old season. It’s a significant jump from allowance competition to a Grade 2 race, but I’m hoping that might boost the price a bit for a gelding that appears ready for the challenge.

By top sire Curlin out of Grade 1 winner Yellow Agate, by Gemologist, Gasoline has finished in the top three in eight of his 11 starts, so he always flashed some ability but now seems to be learning how to win. If the price is right, that’s exactly how I plan to bet him: to win.

If other horseplayers see the same thing I do and Gasoline gets bet down, I’ll try to pair my top choice with a couple of other runners in an exacta to squeeze out a better profit.

I’ll try betting Gasoline with #5 Trademark (6-1) and #9 Stage Raider (12-1). The former has three wins in five starts at Churchill Downs and might be a bit overlooked coming off a well-beaten unplaced finish at Keeneland in the Grade 2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes in October. Stage Raider also enters off an unplaced finish – behind Cody’s Wish in the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – but the half-brother to 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify was very good in two starts before the Breeders’ Cup and ran one of the best races of his career at this 1 1/8-mile distance.

From a big-picture perspective, I like taking a stand against the two potentially short-priced 3-year-olds in this race: Stonestreet Lexington Stakes winner #2 First Mission (3-1) and graded stakes winner #3 Il Miracolo (3-1). The latter ran a big one against older horses when second in the Fayette Stakes but has been too inconsistent for me throughout his career.

Betting Strategy on a $20 Budget

$20 to win on #4 Gasoline ($20)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $20 to win on #4

Alternate Betting Strategy on a $20 Budget

$6 exacta: 4 over 5,9 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $6 exacta 4 over 5,9

$4 exacta: 5,9 over 4 ($8)

What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $4 exacta 5,9 over 4