When was the last time the $2 million Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA drew a field as strong as the one slated to assemble at Santa Anita Park this Friday? The 1 1/16-mile race annually attracts a quality field, but this year’s renewal is above-average even by the Juvenile’s lofty standards.

By any metric, the field is stellar. Accomplishments? Six of the 11 entrants have won a stakes. Four of the 11 have won a Grade 1 stakes, and two of the horses that haven’t won a stakes at least have placed at the Grade 1 level.

Speed figures? Six of the 11 have posted triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings, and seven of the 11 have posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 92 or higher. In some years, the Juvenile features accomplished horses who are nevertheless on the slow side from a speed figure perspective, but that’s not the case this year. The Juvenile entrants have been running seriously fast.

A case can be made for many contenders to visit the winner’s circle, but morning line favorite #6 Locked (7-2) might be the best play. The son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner sold for $425,000 as a yearling, but was overlooked as a 12-1 longshot when he debuted in a maiden special weight sprinting three-quarters of a mile at Saratoga during the summer. Locked was beaten that day, but you can argue he was the best horse. A troubled start left Locked in last place, trailing the field by nearly a dozen lengths, but the chestnut colt never gave up and closed a lot of ground down the homestretch to finish third by 3 1/2 lengths.

Since then, Locked has developed into a monster. He pressed the pace in a one-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga, then took over and rocketed the final quarter-mile in a sensational :23.94 to defeat next-out winner Drum Roll Please by 7 1/4 lengths, earning a 105 Brisnet Speed rating that ranks as the highest number in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field.

Locked. (Candice Chavez/Eclipse Sportswire)

Locked wasn’t quite as flashy in the 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, but his performance was nevertheless strong. Locked gave up a lot of ground racing wide around both turns and could have thrown in the towel when ground-saving rival The Wine Steward slipped through to challenge along the inside, but instead Locked dug deep and battled home in front by half a length.

There’s a good chance Locked is a work in progress whose best efforts will come in 2024 (and perhaps beyond), but he might be special enough to win the Juvenile even before he reaches his peak. It’s rare to see a juvenile run the final quarter-mile of a dirt route in less than :24, as Locked did in his maiden victory, and if he can save more ground at Santa Anita than at Keeneland he’ll be a force to reckon with down the homestretch.

If Locked's 7-2 morning line odds hold up, he is well worth betting to win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but if you have more capital to spend and want to seek a bigger payoff, we suggest taking a stand and keying Locked on top of an exacta, which requires selecting the top two finishers in the correct order. It’s risky in a race this competitive, but that’s how we catch enticing payoffs.

We’re suggesting using three horses for second in the exactas including #4 Timberlake (4-1), #8 General Partner (8-1), and #9 Fierceness (6-1), who finished first, second, and seventh in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont at the Big A last month.

Timberlake has already beaten quality competition, counting Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes winner West Saratoga and Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes hero Can Group among the talented horses he’s conquered. Furthermore, Timberlake is the only Breeders’ Cup Juvenile entrant who has won twice at the Grade 1 level, parlaying a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes (in which he raced close to a hot pace) into a 4 1/4-length romp over a sloppy track in the Champagne.

Timberlake. (Sue Kawczynski/Eclipse Sportswire)

General Partner was no match for Timberlake in the Champagne, but held on well to finish second (6 1/4 lengths ahead of the third-place runner) after carving out a quick pace on the front end. General Partner had previously wired a maiden special weight sprint at Saratoga for trainer Chad Brown, who sent out Good Magic to win the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile off a runner-up finish in the Champagne.

As for Fierceness, he launched a mild rally after a poor start in the Champagne but ran out of gas in the homestretch and faded to finish a distant seventh. The son of 2018 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner City of Light had previously smashed a maiden special weight sprint at Saratoga by 11 3/4 lengths, beating next-out winners Air of Defiance, Billal, and Apollo Ten among others. If you’re willing to forgive Fierceness’s complete misfire in the Champagne, the form of his blowout maiden victory is good enough to factor in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Grade 1 Runhappy Del Mar Futurity winner #2 Prince of Monaco (4-1) and decisive Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes hero #10 Muth (4-1) are other formidable contenders in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Both are trained by Bob Baffert, who has won the Juvenile a record-equaling five times, but we can’t bet them all and make a good profit, so we’ll take the view that Prince of Monaco may have peaked during the summer while Muth needs to run a bit faster from a Brisnet Speed rating and Beyer Speed Figure perspective.

            Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

            $10 to win on #6 Locked

            What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 8th race, $10 to win on 6

            Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

            $18 to win on #6 Locked

            What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 8th race, $18 to win on 6

            $4 exacta: 6 with 4,8,9 ($12)

            What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 8th race, $4 exacta 6 with 4,8,9

            Good luck, and enjoy the race!