We the People a Threat to Lead All the Way in Belmont Stakes

Gambling
We the People trains at Belmont Park on June 4 in preparation for a start in the Belmont Stakes on June 11. (Janet Garaguso/NYRA)

The 154th running of the $1.5 million, Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets June 11 at Belmont Park features the return to the track of Rich Strike, who caused millions of people to say “What just happened?” following the running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve five weeks ago. The colt, which had just one win in seven races on his résumé prior to the Derby, emerged as the second highest longshot winner in Derby history at 80.80-1 odds.

weekend Television schedule

Wednesday, June 8: 12:30-5 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Thursday, June 9: 3-8:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Friday, June 10: 12:30-7 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, June 11: 11 a.m.-2:30 p.m. and 7:15-8:30 p.m. ET on FS2; 3-5 p.m. on CNBC; 5-7 p.m. on NBC; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, June 12: 12:30-2:30 p.m. and 4:30-6 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Rich Strike’s biggest competition in the Belmont Stakes appears to be Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes winner We the People and Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks runner-up Nest. Both of those races have previously produced Belmont Stakes winners. Creative Minister enters the race off a third-of-nine finish in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, is bred to love the Belmont’s 1 ½-mile trip, and could improve, as could Kentucky Derby fifth-place finisher Mo Donegal, who won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last fall and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino this spring. Golden Glider was beaten by 10 ¼  lengths when second behind We the People in the Peter Pan and hopes to improve as well. The field also includes Barber Road, who finished sixth in the Derby and one length behind Mo Donegal, as well as Preakness fifth-place finisher Skippylongstocking

Analysis:

The connections of We the People couldn’t have been more pleased when he drew the ground-saving rail for this year’s Belmont Stakes, because it should enable the talented colt to take the lead from the start and control the pace in a race in which no other horse appears to like to run on the lead in the early stages. We the People was bred to do one thing, and that is to run in longer races. He debuted in February at a mile race at Oaklawn Park, and dominated by nearly six lengths. Then one month later, he started in a 1 1/16-mile race and won as easily by a similar margin. He then moved way up in class to run in the Arkansas Derby as the last chance to gain points for a start in the Kentucky Derby. We the People was very well regarded at 2.40-1 odds but started fifth and finished seventh. Whatever transpired in that race appears to have been an aberration, because in the Peter Pan Stakes four weeks ago over the Belmont main track, We the People returned to his previous form. This time he grabbed the lead from the start and continually improved, eventually winning by 10 ¼ lengths. The 101 Equibase Speed Figure not only was a career-best but is likely to be improved upon as Saturday’s Belmont Stakes will be only his fifth career start. Since the Peter Pan, the colt put in a very strong :47.59 half-mile workout over the Belmont track which was ninth best of 66 on the day and demonstrates he’s holding top physical condition. Jockey Flavien Prat was aboard for the Peter Pan and rides back Saturday, which is another strong factor. He’s a grandson of Tapit, whose progeny have had superb success in this race, and his sire Constitution has had two of six sons or daughters already win at the slightly shorter distance of 1 3/16 miles. We the People is the one to catch, and to beat, in the Belmont Stakes.

Creative Minister improved nicely in his first three races, culminating with a superb 108 figure effort when winning an allowance race at Churchill Downs early on Kentucky Derby day. To put that in perspective, Rich Strike earned a 106 figure when winning the Derby, so on paper, Creative Minister ran faster. Coming back on two weeks rest for the Preakness, Creative Minister managed only a mild rally and third-place finish. Looking at the composition of the Belmont field, trying to determine who may be running second or third behind We the People appears to be the key to figuring out who may have a shot at upsetting the favorite. Given that Creative Minister has been between third and fifth in the early stages of his last three races it is relatively safe to assume he will be one of those horses stalking the leader. As a son of Creative Cause, there is no doubt he will relish the distance as that sire has produced six winners from 11 horses which have won at 1 ½ miles and even longer. Creative Minister’s maternal grandfather is Tapit, and as mentioned that bloodline is a key to having the stamina for this race. As such, Creative Minister has a big shot to finish second or third and is not without a chance to win.

Nest has a chance to be the fourth filly to win the Belmont, with Rags to Riches the most recent to have done so in 2007. This filly has done little wrong in her career, winning four of six starts and finishing second or third in the other two. Her best effort came one race before her last, when she won the Central Bank Ashland Stakes with authority by 8 ¼ lengths. The 106 figure Nest earned in the Ashland is as good as the Derby figure for Rich Strike and close to the field-high figure of 108 earned by Creative Minister. Most importantly, Nest absolutely has the tactical speed to be second or third in the early stages of the Belmont Stakes as demonstrated in her two races this year before her runner-up effort in the Longines Kentucky Oaks when she found herself seventh after a quarter mile and still sixth after a half-mile. With a strong will to succeed, Nest can’t be ruled out as a factor in this year’s Belmont Stakes.

By this point many will be asking, “What about Rich Strike?” My answer is this colt’s running style does not portend well for either the Belmont winner’s historical profile or for this year’s pace scenario. Rich Strike benefitted from a faster than average pace in the Derby, to put it mildly, as the first six furlongs was run in 1:10.34 after a :45.36 half mile. On average, Rich Strike has been last or within three positions of last after a half-mile in his previous six races. In spite of the perception the Belmont is won by closers because of its long distance – which would seemingly allow a horse to wind up and gain momentum as the race increases – this is actually not  the case. The Belmont Stakes has been won primarily by horses that run the same tempo from start to finish, and so I am taking a stand against Rich Strike as a contender in this year’s race.

Similarly, Mo Donegal is hard to endorse in spite of 103 and 101 figure efforts this year when winning the Wood Memorial Stakes and finishing fifth in the Derby.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Barber Road (100), Golden Glider (99) and Skippylongstocking (102).

Top Win Contender:

We the People

Secondary Win Contenders:

Creative Minister

Nest

2022 Belmont S. Presented by NYRA Bets
June 11th, 2022

Winning Time: 2:28.28
  • Purse: $1,500,000
  • Distance: 1 1/2 Miles
  • Age: 3 yo
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Winning Time: 2:28.28
Results
Win
Place
Show
1st
6 Mo Donegal
$7.20
$3.80
$3.00
2nd
3 Nest
$5.30
$4.10
3rd
2 Skippylongstocking
$5.60
4th
1 We the People
6th
4 Rich Strike
7th
8 Barber Road
8th
7 Golden Glider
Payoff
Pick 3
1-7-6
1-7-6
$68
Pick 4
4-1-7-6
4-1-7-6
$221
Pick 4
(2 DAY P4) 5-7-7-6
(2 DAY P4) 5-7-7-6
$2,828
Pick 5
4-4-1-7-6
4-4-1-7-6
$1,158
Pick 6
1-4-4-1-7-6
1-4-4-1-7-6
$41
Pick 6
(2 DAY P6)3-5-1-4-7-6
(2 DAY P6)3-5-1-4-7-6
$384
Pick 6
1-4-4-1-7-6
1-4-4-1-7-6
$4,227
Daily Double
7-6
7-6
$57
Daily Double
(MET-BELMONT) 1-6
(MET-BELMONT) 1-6
$5
Daily Double
(GOLD CUP-BELMONT)1-6
(GOLD CUP-BELMONT)1-6
$12
Exacta
6-3
6-3
$14
Superfecta
6-3-2-1
6-3-2-1
$69
Trifecta
6-3-2
6-3-2
$94
Payoff
Pick 3
1-7-6
1-7-6
$68
Pick 4
4-1-7-6
4-1-7-6
$221
Pick 4
(2 DAY P4) 5-7-7-6
(2 DAY P4) 5-7-7-6
$2,828
Pick 5
4-4-1-7-6
4-4-1-7-6
$1,158
Pick 6
1-4-4-1-7-6
1-4-4-1-7-6
$41
Pick 6
(2 DAY P6)3-5-1-4-7-6
(2 DAY P6)3-5-1-4-7-6
$384
Pick 6
1-4-4-1-7-6
1-4-4-1-7-6
$4,227
Daily Double
7-6
7-6
$57
Daily Double
(MET-BELMONT) 1-6
(MET-BELMONT) 1-6
$5
Daily Double
(GOLD CUP-BELMONT)1-6
(GOLD CUP-BELMONT)1-6
$12
Exacta
6-3
6-3
$14
Superfecta
6-3-2-1
6-3-2-1
$69
Trifecta
6-3-2
6-3-2
$94

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