Betting a 10-1 Longshot in the FanDuel Turf Sprint

Gambling
Horses race at Kentucky Downs. (Coady Photography)

With a purse of $1 million, Saturday’s Grade 3 FanDuel Turf Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs is one of the richest and most competitive races taking place this weekend. The 3/4-mile dash awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, a prize 13 horses (including one also-eligible) have turned out to seek.

weekend TV schedule

Thursday, Sept. 9: post time varies on TVG

Friday, Sept. 10: post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Sept. 11: 8:30 a.m.-10 a.m. on FS2; 5 p.m.-6 p.m. on NBC; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Sept. 12: post time varies on TVG

Befitting of its rich purse, the FanDuel Turf Sprint has drawn an elite field. The 7-2 morning line favorite is #7 Casa Creed, a veteran of 21 starts. The 5-year-old turf star has spent most of his career as a miler and enters off a game third-place finish in the Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap racing one mile at Saratoga.

But Casa Creed is arguably better – maybe a lot better – as a sprinter. He’s actually 2-for-2 in sprints this season, producing powerful stretch rallies to win the 7/8-mile Elusive Quality Stakes and the 3/4-mile Grade 1 Jackpocket Jaipur Stakes at Belmont Park. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, Casa Creed is a logical stretch-running threat to claim the FanDuel Turf Sprint.

The only question mark for Casa Creed is the fact he’s never run over the unique European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs. The undulating conditions can be tricky for some horses to handle, which could potentially lend an advantage to #9 Got Stormy.

Got Stormy and Casa Creed have squared off twice this season, with each claiming victory once. Got Stormy finished fifth behind Casa Creed in the Jaipur, but bounced back to score a 1 1/2-length victory in the Fourstardave.

The big positive in Got Stormy’s corner is the fact she’s proven at Kentucky Downs. Last year, the daughter of Get Stormy rallied from a couple lengths off the pace to dominate the Grade 3 Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths. She’ll face tougher company in the FanDuel Turf Sprint, but her affinity for Kentucky Downs is a big positive.

The same goes for #12 Imprimis, defending winner of the FanDuel Turf Sprint. Despite enduring a tricky trip in last year’s renewal, Imprimis unleashed a determined rally to get up and win by a neck over #3 Bombard and #6 Front Run the Fed. Long a high-class performer at the stakes level, Imprimis rarely finishes out of the top four and has to be viewed a contender under three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

A bettor could place their faith in Casa Creed, Got Stormy, or Imprimis and feel fine about their chances of winning. But we’ll take a more creative approach and oppose all three with #2 Fast Boat, a 10-1 shot who may offer terrific betting value in the FanDuel Turf Sprint.

There’s a lot to like about Fast Boat’s résumé. For starters, he’s already proven over the local course – back in 2019, he dominated a starter allowance race at Kentucky Downs by two lengths, in the process defeating multiple stakes winner Tiger Blood.

For another, Fast Boat is in career-best form this year. During the spring, he produced a powerful rally to win the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes Presented by Sysco at Churchill Downs by half a length, earning a strong 102 Brisnet Speed rating. At Saratoga last month, Fast Boat unleashed a similarly eye-catching late charge to nab the Grade 3 Troy Stakes Presented by Horse Racing Ireland with a 100 Brisnet Speed rating, counting Imprimis among his beaten rivals.

If you draw a line through Fast Boat’s subpar sixth-place effort in the Jaipur, his form looks rock-solid. In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, he’s been running just as fast (and faster) than Casa Creed and Got Stormy. Just as importantly, Fast Boat will be ridden in the FanDuel Turf Sprint by Joel Rosario, the runaway leading rider at Kentucky Downs this meet with 11 win from 27 mounts through Wednesday.

In short, Fast Boat is an appealing choice to upset the FanDuel Turf Sprint at double-digit odds. We’ll bet the race accordingly, favoring Fast Boat on top of all our wagers.

Depending on how much money you’ve allocated for betting the FanDuel Turf Sprint, we have a couple of wagering strategies for you to consider. The smaller option – costing $20 – involves a win bet on Fast Boat and an exacta using Casa Creed and Got Stormy for second place. But if you’re willing to spend $40, we’ll take aim at the trifecta, which has the potential for a much bigger payoff.

Wagering Strategy on a $20 Budget

$14 to win on #2 Fast Boat

What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, 8th race, $14 to win on 2

$3 exacta: 2 with 7,9 ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, 8th race, $3 exacta 2 with 7,9

Wagering Strategy on a $40 Budget

$16 to win on #2 Fast Boat

What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, 8th race, $16 to win on 2

$1 trifecta: 2 with 7,9 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,11,12 ($16)

What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, 8th race, $1 trifecta 2 with 7,9 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,11,12

$0.50 trifecta: 2 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,11,12 with 7,9 ($8)

What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, 8th race, $0.50 trifecta 2 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,11,12 with 7,9

Good luck, and enjoy the race!

2021 FanDuel Turf Sprint S.
September 11th, 2021

Results
Win
Place
Show
1st
4 Gear Jockey
$13.40
$7.20
$5.40
3rd
3 Bombard
$5.40
4th
2 Fast Boat
5th
7 Casa Creed
6th
9 Got Stormy
7th
6 Front Run the Fed
8th
10 Chewing Gum
9th
11 Stubbins
10th
12 Imprimis
11th
8 Siem Riep
  • Breeder / R. A. Hill Stable
12th
5 Born Great
  • Breeder / Glenvale Stud

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