A Value Play to Consider Over Instagrand in the Gotham

March 7th, 2019 by J. Keeler Johnson

Winter racing at Aqueduct. (Eclipse Sportswire)

It’s easy to understand why racing fans are excited about seeing #6 Instagrand return to action in Saturday’s $300,000, Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct.

Instagrand looked like a star in the making last summer. Sold for $1.2 million as a 2-year-old-in-training, he arrived for his debut at Los Alamitos with a reputation as a very promising youngster, and he lived up to expectations with a tremendous victory. Despite setting a quick pace, Instagrand was able to power away through a final furlong in :11.19 seconds (a blazing fraction) to win by 10 lengths.

Instagrand was just as impressive in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar, again pulling clear with authority to triumph by 10 ¼ lengths over the future graded stakes winner Sparky Ville. At the time, Instagrand appeared to be clearly the most promising young colt in training.

But then Instagrand’s team decided to rest him for the remainder of the year, so the Gotham will mark his first start since August, his first run beyond six furlongs, and his first start outside of California. That’s a challenging set of circumstances, and Instagrand’s task becomes even more difficult when you consider how the Gotham Stakes figures to unfold.

Simply put, there are eight horses in the field, and fully six of them (Instagrand included) are front-running/pace-pressing types with plenty of early speed. The half-mile run out of the chute and down the backstretch could very well turn into a hard sprint as horses like #2 Knicks Go (winner of the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity), #3 Mind Control (winner of the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes), and #7 Not That Brady (close runner-up in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes) challenge Instagrand for early command.

In my opinion, this could make #5 Haikal a viable candidate for an upset. A Shadwell Stable homebred trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, Haikal has repeatedly shown the ability to produce a big finish from off the pace, a running style that could prove handy in this speed-packed edition of the Gotham. After finishing second in his debut at Aqueduct (a race in which he gained 6 ¼ lengths in the final furlong to fall a neck short of victory), Haikal unleashed a nearly identical rally to prevail in another Aqueduct maiden race, defeating the next-out winner American Mandate by a neck.

Most recently, Haikal stepped up in class for the Feb. 9 Jimmy Winkfield Stakes sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Aqueduct. After racing a bit closer to the early pace than usual, Haikal rallied gallantly up the inside to win by a neck with a career-best 99 BRIS speed figure and a respectable (if not overly eye-catching) 84 Beyer Speed Figure.

Call it a hunch, but Haikal strikes me as a classy colt with a bright future, and the expected pace scenario of the Gotham should play to his strengths. At 6-1 on the morning line, I think he might offer the best value in the race.

Also, I wouldn’t count #4 Much Better out of the mix here. Racing for the high-profile team of trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith, Much Better might be 2-for-2 sprinting and 0-for-3 going long, but I thought his third-place finish in the one-mile Grade 3 Sham Stakes two starts back was better than it looked, given that he raced close to a quick pace over a closer-favoring track and was leading clearly until he switched leads, drifted around, and shortened stride in the final furlong. He carried his speed a bit better when finishing second in the one-mile Zuma Beach Stakes on turf last fall, and in this race full of front-runners, it’s encouraging to note that some of Much Better’s best races have come when he’s settled into a pace-tracking position.

Here are two wagering strategies to consider for the Gotham Stakes:

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 to win on #5 Haikal

$3 exacta: 6 with 5

$2 exacta: 5 with 6

Wagering Strategy on a $25 Budget

$11 to win on #5 Haikal

$5 exacta: 5,6 with 5,6 ($10)

$1 trifecta: 5,6 with 4,5,6 with 4,5,6 ($4)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!