Making Money Betting a Longshot in the Robert B. Lewis

Gambling
Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

Whenever the Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert enters a horse in a graded stakes race, I pay attention. When that horse has yet to win a race and, on paper, seems like an overmatched longshot, you can bet that I’ll be watching with extra interest.

Such is the case in Saturday’s $150,000, Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park, an official prep race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. Nine horses have been entered, but the race hasn’t come up particularly tough—none of the entrants have won more than a single race, and in terms of speed figures, they have yet to run very fast.

That’s why I’m intrigued by Baffert’s runner, #8 Regulate. The son of Quality Road has been beaten in all three of his starts thus far, but I believe his last two efforts were much better than they appear at first glance. Two starts back, Regulate was beaten less than a length by fellow Robert B. Lewis starter #7 Peace in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Santa Anita; notably, Regulate raced significantly wider than Peace throughout the race and conceded a lot of ground.

Then, in a one-mile maiden race on Jan. 19, Regulate endured another tough trip while racing wide on both turns and chasing fractions (:46.38 and 1:11.89) that are very fast for Santa Anita. Under the circumstances, it wasn’t shocking to see him fade in the homestretch after making a determined bid for the lead around the far turn.

Since none of Regulate’s Robert B. Lewis rivals have ever been on the lead after the opening quarter-mile in any race, he should be able to work out a better trip on Saturday racing close to a slower pace. Baffert is showing confidence by running Regulate right back in a graded stakes race two weeks after his most recent defeat, and the colt signaled his readiness by working a half-mile in a respectable :48 4/5 on Jan. 30. Since Regulate figures to start at high odds, I’ll take a chance with him on top and play him in the exacta with Peace and #5 Shivermetimbers, who defeated Peace in a maiden race two starts back and most recently finished fourth against a quality field in the Sham Stakes.

Wagering Strategy

$12 to win on #8 Regulate

$2 exacta: 5,7,8 with 5,7,8 ($12)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!

2018 Robert B. Lewis S.
February 3rd, 2018

Winning Time: 1:45.41
  • Purse: $150,000
  • Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
  • Age: 3 yo
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Winning Time: 1:45.41
Results
Win
Place
Show
1st
4 Lombo
$19.40
$10.40
$7.20
2nd
1 Ayacara (GB)
$6.00
$4.40
3rd
3 Dark Vader
$13.60
4th
8 Regulate
  • Owner / Juddmonte
  • Breeder / Juddmonte Farms Inc.
5th
7 Peace
6th
2 Pepe Tono
7th
5 Shivermetimbers
8th
9 Blame the Rider
9th
6 Inscom
Payoff
Pick 3
1-3-4
1-3-4
$54
Pick 4
1-1/2-3-4
1-1/2-3-4
$111
Pick 5
12-1-1/2-3-4
12-1-1/2-3-4
$541
Daily Double
3-4
3-4
$86
Exacta
4-1
4-1
$46
Superfecta
4-1-3-8
4-1-3-8
$4,950
Trifecta
4-1-3
4-1-3
$267
X-5 Super High Five
4-1-3-8-7
4-1-3-8-7
$0
Payoff
Pick 3
1-3-4
1-3-4
$54
Pick 4
1-1/2-3-4
1-1/2-3-4
$111
Pick 5
12-1-1/2-3-4
12-1-1/2-3-4
$541
Daily Double
3-4
3-4
$86
Exacta
4-1
4-1
$46
Superfecta
4-1-3-8
4-1-3-8
$4,950
Trifecta
4-1-3
4-1-3
$267
X-5 Super High Five
4-1-3-8-7
4-1-3-8-7
$0

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