Stay Lucky Weekly Guide: Preakness Weekend Primer

Gambling
Fans enjoy Preakness Stakes weekend in 2016. (Eclipse Sportswire)

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Stay Lucky offers participants the opportunity to win great prizes by stringing together winners in Thoroughbred races. Unbroken streaks of five, seven, nine, 14, 17 and 20 reward the players with a prize or choice of prizes. Terms and conditions apply.

The object is simple: pick winners from North American graded stakes races that draw at least six entrants. Races will be scored in real time but streaks will be updated only once daily to make sure they are scored in the correct order.

Pick as many races each weekend as you like, but be sure to play at least one race every weekend or your streak will be reset.

Let’s take a look at this week's contest races and how to approach them (numbers listed correspond to game play, not program number). In the coming weeks, expect a selection of 3-5 best bets of the weekend rather than race-by-race analysis. 

FRIDAY

Allaire DuPont Distaff S. (1:34 p.m. ET): If you are looking for a safe spot on Friday’s card, Terra Promessa (#4) appears formidable as the 6-5 morning-line favorite and I couldn’t fault you for jumping on board. She comes off a runner-up finish to champion Stellar Wind in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap and it doesn’t look like she’ll face a ton of opposition for the early lead. However, I think Carrumba (#6) has a fairly strong chance to pull an upset here for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey and she’s at her best at this distance.

Pimlico Special H. (2:39 p.m. ET): Shaman Ghost (#6) won the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes last summer at Saratoga and enters this race off a win in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. He also finished second to the best horse in the U.S., Arrogate, in the $12-million Pegasus World Cup in January. He’s the class of this field as evidenced by his 4-5 odds on the morning line in a 10-horse field. The major threat looks like Noble Bird (#5), who won this race by 11 ¼ lengths last year in a career-best performance on a track he clearly likes very much.

Adena Springs Miss Preakness S. (3:44 p.m. ET): With a bunch of lightly-raced 3-year-old fillies in a three-quarter-mile sprint, I’ll look elsewhere for an easier spot. Our Majesty (#5) is the 7-2 favorite on the morning line and has crossed the finish line first in all three of her races — she lost one via disqualification — but this is a deep, evenly matched field.

Black-Eyed Susan S. (4:50 p.m. ET): The tepid 4-1 morning-line favorite, Moana (#7), has only raced twice; and the 9-2 second choice, Shimmering Aspen (#1), has raced four times, all in Maryland. Neither has ever competed in a stakes race. I prefer Summer Luck (#9) in what looks like a great betting race, but perhaps not an ideal option for Stay Lucky.

SATURDAY

Maryland Sprint Handicap (3:27 p.m. ET): This feels like a two-horse race to me between multiple Grade 1 winner A. P. Indian (#4) and Whitmore (#5), who has won four straight sprints since cutting back in distance after last year’s Kentucky Derby. There are a few other fast ones here, but I’d be surprised if the winner isn’t one of these two.

Gallorette Handicap (4:07 p.m. ET): There appears to be a clear top tier of four in this race: Zipessa (#2), Danilovna (#3), On Leave (#6) and Elysea’s World (#7) and I’ve always been a fan of Gone Away (#5), who is 1-for-1 on the Pimlico turf. It feels like a fun race to bet but not exactly ideal for Stay Lucky.

Eclipse S. (4:24 p.m. ET): There is a trio of synthetic specialists in here capable of running a big one — Are You Kidding Me (#2), Eirigh (#4) and Riker (#7) — as well as a talented turf horse from the barn of Hall of Famer Bill Mott trying a synthetic surface for the first time in Go Around (#6). I give the slight edge to Are You Kidding Me but I don’t feel especially confident about it.

Matron S. (5:21 p.m. ET): Curlin’s Approval (#7) enters off a rare poor performance, but I expect her to bounce back here. She looks like the clear class of the field and without much speed she should be very close to an easy pace and get a nice jump on the closers.

Longines Dixie S. (5:39 p.m. ET): When Ring Weekend (#10) is at his best, he’s the class of this field. While his recent races don’t inspire on paper, he’s had some legitimate excuses. I like his chances to win here, but this is a balanced field with some depth of talent.

Louisville Handicap (5:51 p.m. ET): I spent about 20 minutes looking over the past performances just trying to pick who would be the morning-line favorite. Couldn’t. Pass.

Preakness S. (6:45 p.m. ET): It’s impossible to look past Always Dreaming (#4) here. Kentucky Derby winners with tactical speed almost always fare well in the Preakness, especially on a fast track like what is expected for Saturday. Think American Pharoah, California Chrome, I’ll Have Another and Big Brown just in the last 10 years. Champion Classic Empire (#5) is the main danger here, but I think Always Dreaming heads to New York with a shot at the Triple Crown.

Kona Gold S. (7 p.m. ET): This race drew a solid field with 2016 multiple Grade 2 winner Kobe’s Back (#3) looking to regain his best form and graded stakes winner Calculator (#2) back on his best surface after three races on the grass. Ransom the Moon (#6) freaked in his last start when getting back on dirt, a surface on which he has two wins and three seconds in six starts. But most of the money probably will go on Lord Simba (#7), who recorded a 115 Equibase Speed Figure in winning his stakes debut for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert on April 15. I think there are easier spots this week, but if I was playing this race, I’d lean toward Lord Simba.

SUNDAY

Selene Stakes (4:55 p.m. ET): I was really impressed with Grizzel’s (#2) first attempt on a synthetic surface in her most recent start. She raced in several group (equivalent to graded) stakes in Europe on the grass and finished fourth in a pair of stakes on the grass in the U.S. before a clear win on the (Polytrack) main track at Woodbine on April 28. There are a few very nice 3-year-old fillies in this race, including three with a stakes win on the main track at Woodbine, so this would not be a race I’d target.

Top 5 Stay Lucky Plays

1. Shaman Ghost (Pimlico Special H.)

2. Always Dreaming (Preakness S.)

3. Curlin’s Approval (Matron S.)

4. Ring Weekend (Longines Dixie S.)

5. Terra Promessa (Allaire DuPont Distaff S.)

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