Examining How Longshot Cloud Computing Affected Preakness Payoffs

May 24th, 2017 by Bob Ehalt

Fans at the Preakness. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

After five straight editions of the Kentucky Derby that were won by the betting favorites, the 2017 Preakness Stakes featured a second straight loss by the chalk – or more specifically, the Kentucky Derby winner.

While the Kentucky Derby, with an $11.40 winner in Always Dreaming, needed horses priced at 33-1 for second and 40-1 for third to trigger a $336.20 exacta and a gargantuan $16,594.50 trifecta, the Preakness followed a more a traditional path to some lucrative payoffs that can serve as a guide for down the road when a similar situation develops.

With Always Dreaming finishing eighth as the 6-5 favorite, it opened the door for handicappers to chase some large payoffs through Cloud Computing, the 13-1 winner of the race, as opposed to the horses at the bottom of the exotics.

At the betting windows, the Preakness was seen as a two-horse race with Always Dreaming and Classic Empire attracting the bulk of the money. At one point late on Saturday, Always Dreaming was 8-5 and Classic Empire was 2-1, but by post time Always Dreaming had dropped to 6-5 while Classic Empire remained at 2-1.

If you decided to bet the race as if it was indeed a two-horse contest, the exacta payoffs were minimal considering it was a 10-horse field. Contrary to what the win odds said, the favored combination was Classic Empire over Always Dreaming, which would have paid about $5 for $1. The reverse combination with Always Dreaming on top would have paid $6.

Now when you add a 13-1 winner in Cloud Computing to the mix, the payoffs jumped. The winning exacta with Cloud Computing over Classic Empire paid $98.40 and the exacta with him on top of Always Dreaming would have paid $76.

While the trifecta could not match the value found in a 20-horse field in the Derby, with 31-1 shot Senior Investment grabbing third the payoff was a slick $2,194.60.

As an example of what the payoffs would have been with the two favorites out of the picture, the exactas with Cloud Computing and third-choice Lookin At Lee would have paid $234 with Cloud Computing on top and $246 with Lookin At Lee first.

While the exacta payoffs were attractive, using a longshot made the sequence or horizontals wagers another nice source of income. The payoffs with Cloud Computing in those bets were: double $88, Pick 3 $1,001.20 and Pick 4 $5,850, all for $2 wagers.

One interesting note about those payoffs was that in each of those wagering pools, Cloud Computing was the third choice in them, even though he was the sixth choice in the win pool. Clearly, the sequence players had the race scoped out rather well.

To understand how a longshot can impact those pools, here’s the probable payoffs with Always Dreaming: double $17, Pick 3 $182.60, Pick 4 $1,133.20, which were about one-fifth of the return with Cloud Computing in the win spot.

While Always Dreaming and Classic Empire were relatively close in the win odds, the sequence wagers offered a better spread with the second choice, especially when more races were tacked on to the wager. Classic Empire’s will-pays were: double $28.20, Pick 3 $332.60 and Pick 4 $1,985.20.

Considering those payoffs – two of them for more than $1,000 – were for horses priced at 6-5 and 2-1, it shows why races with large fields and gigantic wagering pools offer great wagering value.

And if you missed out on cashing a ticket on your first two tries, fear not. The third time might be the charm for you on June 10 in the Belmont Stakes.