Byron King’s Derby Dozen for March 12
BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his weekly Derby Dozen for 2026, with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 2.

The Derby prep schedule takes a relative breather this upcoming weekend, with only one qualifying points race scheduled: the 105-point Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County March 14 at Colonial Downs.
Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

1. Paladin
Paladin rates as the top prospect for the Kentucky Derby, a race that eluded his sire, Gun Runner, third behind Nyquist and Exaggerator in the 2016 running. Gun Runner held a narrow lead entering the stretch of the Derby but was outfinished over the final quarter-mile. Gun Runner would become an even better 4-year-old, running his way to Horse of the Year honors in 2017 and later being inducted into the Hall of Fame. Since then, he’s become a brilliant sire. Paladin seems on course for the April 4 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes after two workouts following his win in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes.

2. Commandment
As nicely as he finished in winning the Feb. 28 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes to improve to 3-for-4, he seemed to lose a little focus nearing the finish, drifting out late and flicking his ears forward. Trainer Brad Cox speculates the horse shifted away from the lights on the track near the finish line. The colt didn’t appear tired, galloping out smartly when prompted by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Sons of seven-time leading sire Into Mischief have won three runnings of the Kentucky Derby over the past six years: Authentic (2020), Mandaloun (by the disqualification of Medina Spirit in 2021), and Sovereignty (2025).
3. Nearly
After Nearly reeled off easy half-mile breezes in February following his victory in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher asked him for more March 6 in preparation for the March 28 Curlin Florida Derby with a five-furlong in-company work at Palm Beach Downs in 1:00.60. As nice as his Holy Bull triumph was – winning by 5 ¾ lengths in a time of 1:44.52 – his final sixteenth was sluggish, timed in :07.10, which seems in part a product of him pushing a quick pace. The 1 1/8-mile distance of the Florida Derby should provide a barometer for his prospects at 1 ¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who won the Derby last year with Sovereignty and with Country House in 2019 (who was elevated to first upon the disqualification of Maximum Security), has a less-seasoned runner on the Derby trail this year. Chief Wallabee is clearly of high quality, having won on debut before a wide runner-up finish to Commandment in the Fountain of Youth. Of Mott’s 14 Derby starters, seven have come since 2018 as he has amped up his participation in the American classic. With 25 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, this colt is well positioned to have sufficient points to make the Derby providing he runs third or better in one of the final preps.

This 2-for-3 colt has Kentucky Derby-winning connections. Todd Pletcher trained Super Saver to win the Derby in 2010 for WinStar Farm and added another Derby in 2017 with Always Dreaming, who raced for a different ownership. Two of this colt’s co-owners, WinStar and CHC (China Horse Club), also teamed with other partners to win the 2018 Derby and Triple Crown with the Bob Baffert-trained Justify. As for Class President’s current jockey, John Velazquez, who piloted the colt to a narrow victory in the Rebel Stakes, he is a three-time winner. The Baffert-trained Medina Spirit would have given him a fourth in 2021, but he was disqualified for a medication violation.
The Southwest Stakes winner was outgamed by Class President in the Rebel Stakes, but take note that he was the co-highweight, carrying 124 pounds. That was five pounds more than Class President, who had only a debut maiden win and stakes placing coming into the race. In a race decided by inches, perhaps it made a difference. Regardless, Silent Tactic ran well in defeat, being more forwardly-placed than in prior starts. He was within range of the leaders from a stalking position, not needing to pass nine horses through the lane, as he did in the Southwest.
7. Renegade
No surprise that he is in the Derby Dozen rankings in light of the company he kept last year at age 2. He finished in front of Paladin when they met in the maiden ranks Oct. 17 at Aqueduct, only to be disqualified for interference, and then was second to him in the Dec. 6 Remsen Stakes there. An early move and a wide trip likely compromised him to a degree, and Paladin surged ahead by two lengths in the 1 1/8-mile race. Renegade’s lone start at 3 was sharp in the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, and the form of the race was validated when third-place The Puma returned to win the March 7 ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby.

8. Canaletto
Despite his loss in the Tampa Bay Derby, there was much to like about his wide third-place finish. “He was looking around. He never really traveled,” jockey Flavien Prat said of the second-time starter. “They went fast and I was in deep water from the gate. ... He was brave enough to make a run, but I never really felt that I was traveling well.” Given these circumstances, the view here is that he has the most Derby upside going forward as he gains experience, hence his placement ahead of The Puma and Further Ado, those who beat him.

9. Further Ado
He was gritty to turn back Canaletto for second in the Tampa Bay Derby, but he had the smoothest journey of the top three finishers. Irad Ortiz Jr. had him well positioned with a three-wide stalking trip, while The Puma and Canaletto raced at path or two wider around each turn. Away since taking the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in late November at Churchill Downs, he simply didn’t kick away when asked to quicken when others bid on the second turn. The Blue Grass at Keeneland is likely next, and he has an affinity for the surface there. By far his fastest race came over that surface last fall when he won a maiden race by 20 lengths.
10. The Puma
Like Canaletto, he appeared to be in trouble early in the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby when hung wide into the first turn, falling all the way back to last. He then lost ground on the second turn with a further wide advance, but he ran down the leaders anyway, finishing strongest. His time of 1:43.23 for 1 1/16 miles was on the slow side relative to 4-year-old Disruptor’s clocking in winning the Michelob Ultra Challenger Stakes 3 ½ hours earlier on the card, though perhaps a rainstorm before the Tampa Bay Derby slowed the speed of the track surface even though it was still rated fast.

11. Potente
Encouraged by a determined rally to win Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse and improve to 2-for-2, but he debuts at No. 11, near the bottom of these rankings, in light of how the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe unfolded. His favored stablemate, Brant, threw in the towel on the second turn, and with third-place So Happy regressing in his first start around two turns, the San Felipe was ripe for the taking. Potente ran down stretch leader Robusta, but that rival was 67.30-1 odds and hardly on anyone’s short list of Derby contenders. Still, this 3-year-old is an up-and-comer, well-suited to added distance, and trained by a six-time Derby winner in Bob Baffert.

12. Reagan’s Honor
This talented colt – named after co-owner David Ingordo’s daughter, Reagan – fits into the same category as horses such as Cherokee Nation and Emerging Market in that he has run lofty speed figures against lesser competition. He is ranked in the Derby Dozen while they’re not, owing to him having at least posted his near-record time in rolling in an allowance Feb. 19 at Fair Grounds. Their wins came in the maiden ranks at Santa Anita Park and Tampa Bay Downs, respectively. Reagan’s Honor, pointed to the Blue Grass next month, resumed breezing March 6 with a five-furlong move in 1:00.40 at Fair Grounds.