This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not as strong as they previously were. In the sixth edition of this blog for the 2026 run for the roses, the focus is on what has changed since the previous edition on March 17.

HEATING UP

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1. Emerging Market

This week was an easy call for the top slot as Emerging Market showed plenty of grit in deep stretch of the $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby to outduel game runner-up Pavlovian by a head March 21 at Fair Grounds. I wrote in more detail in this week’s Derby Prospect Profile on Emerging Market, a Candy Ride colt who was making his stakes debut in only his second start while stretching out from one mile and 40 yards to 1 3/16 miles. He aced both the class and distance tests for trainer Chad Brown. Should he go on to Louisville for the May 2 Kentucky Derby, Emerging Market would be bidding to do something that has never been accomplished in the 151 previous editions of the race, winning the classic with two or fewer starts. While I’m skeptical he can rewrite history with an unprecedented win at Churchill Downs in his third race, Emerging Market might just be scratching the surface of his ability and his final quarter-mile in :24.82 in the Louisiana Derby indicates he should handle an additional sixteenth of a mile. I think a top-three Derby finish is possible with an incremental step forward.

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2. Fulleffort

The gray or roan colt by Liam’s Map lived up to his favoritism in the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks March 21 at Turfway Park, closing from ninth to earn his first stakes win after back-to-back runner-up finishes in Turfway stakes. Fulleffort won two of four races as a 2-year-old, all on the grass, but has raced exclusively on the all-weather Tapeta Footings surface at Turfway for trainer Brad Cox at age 3. A year ago, Cox ran Final Gambit three times at Turfway, also culminating with a Jeff Ruby win, before he went on to run fourth in the Kentucky Derby at 17.55-1 odds. The gameplan this year was similar with Fulleffort, and he finished the Jeff Ruby Steaks with a final eighth of a mile in :12.99 to win by 2 ½ lengths. Fulleffort earned a new career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure, a six-point improvement, and boosted his best Beyer Speed Figure 11 points to a 94. Produced by the multiple stakes-winning Awesome Again mare Callmethesqueeze, Fulleffort is a half-brother to Power Squeeze, winner of the 1 ¼-mile, Grade 1 Alabama Stakes on the dirt in 2024. Having never competed in a race on the dirt, Fulleffort is a wild card for the 2026 Kentucky Derby … but he’ll be in the starting gate and should be doing his best running late.

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3. Pavlovian

The Louisiana Derby runner-up ran a truly gutsy race March 21, fighting back after being passed in the stretch before ultimately coming up a head short of winner Emerging Market. He earned a new career-best 90 Beyer Speed Figure and 89 Equibase Speed Figure and finished with a final quarter-mile in :24.96 after setting a solid pace through an opening half-mile in :46.23. I think it was probably a better race than the speed figures indicate, but with 10 starts I also don’t see quite as much room for improvement with Pavlovian as I do for the two 3-year-olds above him. The gray or roan colt by Pavel, who won the Sunland Park Derby in his previous race, essentially paired his speed figures, so he could take a small step forward on six weeks of rest. He also has a ton of foundation under him for two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill and his spot in the Kentucky Derby field is secured.

Also Eligible: Stark Contrast made the switch from turf to all-weather for the Jeff Ruby Steaks, took the lead in early stretch March 21 at Turfway Park, and finished second to Fulleffort. Stark Contrast was unplaced in his lone previous start on dirt in his career debut last August at Del Mar and trainer Michael McCarthy has a decision to make with 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. That total most likely would be sufficient to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, but the Caravaggio colt’s Equibase Speed Figure dipped from a 107 to a 95, indicating that turf probably is his preferred surface.

COOLING DOWN

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1. Chip Honcho

Chip Honcho faded to finish fifth after stalking the pace in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby March 21 at Fair Grounds, where he competed in all four of the track’s Kentucky Derby qualifying races. The Gun Runner Stakes winner entered off a determined runner-up finish in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes that was his fastest race to date, but he took a step back in the Louisiana Derby. While Chip Honcho probably has enough qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby with 49, regressing from a 98 Equibase Speed Figure to a 73 when stretching out in distance an additional sixteenth of a mile was not ideal. The Steve Asmussen-trained Connect colt would need a sharp reversal in form while extending to 1 ¼ miles for the Derby.

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2. Blacksmith

Last year’s Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up, Blacksmith entered the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby March 21 off a dominant 3 ¾-length win in a one-mile maiden race in February at Santa Anita Park. The bay colt was fourth betting choice in the nine-horse field for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and just never really impacted the race. He was seventh early and finished 13 lengths behind winner Emerging Market in a sixth-place finish. I expect to see him next in an easier spot – a $1 million race on the Kentucky Derby trail is a tall order for a maiden winner – and perhaps in a shorter race like his recent victory at a mile.

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3. Medici

Medici ran well in defeat in the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks. His placing here is not a knock on the horse by any stretch after a third-place finish, beaten by six lengths, March 21 at Turfway Park. He was transitioning from turf to the all-weather surface at Turfway for a worthwhile shot on the Kentucky Derby trail and a big purse. He was not nominated to the Triple Crown before becoming Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella’s first starter at Turfway in 24 years, and I would be somewhat surprised if Medici was among the late nominees. He finished second in the Pasadena Stakes Feb. 26 on the turf at Santa Anita Park, where he had posted consecutive triple-digit Equibase Speed Figures racing on the grass. Medici would be a longshot to qualify for the Derby and I think there is a good shot he’ll be back on turf after a 12-point dip from a 102 Equibase Speed Figure in the Pasadena to a 90 for the Jeff Ruby.