The first two legs of the 2025 Triple Crown delivered a surplus of drama and excitement thanks to Sovereignty’s powerful rally in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on a sloppy track May 3 at Churchill Downs followed by Journalism’s gutsy win in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later at Pimlico.

Focus now shifts to the Belmont Stakes June 7 at Saratoga Race Course, which for the second straight year will host the final leg of the U.S. Triple Crown while Belmont Park undergoes a complete renovation. Because of the racetrack layout at Saratoga, the race will again be shortened to 1 ¼ miles from the usual 1 ½ miles at Belmont Park.

For an early overview of this year’s Belmont Stakes, let’s group the probable runners into tiers.

1) The Classic Winners

Journalism, Sovereignty

When Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott outlined his plan to skip the Preakness Stakes with Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty shortly after his 1 ½-length win over Journalism in the May 3 run for the roses, it felt a little bit like the air being let out of the 2025 Triple Crown balloon. There really is nothing to fill the void of a Derby winner bypassing the Preakness.

Journalism wins the Preakness. (Jim McCue/Maryland Jockey Club)

But a little more than two weeks later, horse racing is staring down the prospects of one of the most highly anticipated rematches in recent history. Derby runner-up Journalism charged through an almost nonexistent opening in the stretch of the Preakness and made up five lengths on leader Gosger in the final eighth of a mile for a breathtaking victory. Journalism showed incredible guts and resiliency to overcome the jostling between horses early in the Preakness stretch before taking aim on Gosger and reeling him in.

Now the Kentucky Derby favorite and Preakness winner gets his shot to turn the tables on Sovereignty, who beat him fair and square – with no obvious excuses – by a length and a half in the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby. Sovereignty completed his final three-eighths of a mile in :37.75 and his final furlong in :12.71 to surge past Journalism on a sealed sloppy track for his third win in six career starts. He also closed like a freight train to win the 2024 Street Sense Stakes (final three-eighths in :36.74) and the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, completing a last-to-first rally in that March 1 race with a final three furlongs in :37.68.

Journalism’s trainer, Michael McCarthy, felt the first 100 yards in the Kentucky Derby cost the Curlin colt a win. But Sovereignty will be well-rested for this rematch and let’s not let recency bias cause us to forget that the Into Mischief colt was clearly best on the first Saturday in May.

Will this rematch be 21^st century U.S. horse racing’s “Thrilla in Manila”? Perhaps, but don’t forget … there is another.

2) Three’s a Crowd

Baeza

For those that love the rematch narrative – and it is, no doubt, a juicy one – be aware that there is one obvious spoiler for that storyline. It’s a horse race, so of course any of the entrants could win on any given day, but Baeza in particular looks like a 3-year-old on the rise with an alluring combination of talent and pedigree entering the Belmont Stakes for veteran trainer John Shirreffs.

He finished three-quarters of a length behind Journalism when second in the Santa Anita Derby April 5 and then broke from the far outside post in a 19-horse Kentucky Derby field and rallied from 15^th to finish third. Baeza was beaten by 1 ¾ lengths by Sovereignty in his fifth career race and finished just a neck behind Journalism.

By McKinzie out of the stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca, Baeza is a half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and last year’s Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. He also will enter the race with five weeks of rest and needs only to take an incremental step of improvement in the Belmont Stakes to give Puca her third straight year with a U.S. classic winner. Baeza is legit.

3) In With a Chance

Gosger, Heart of Honor, Hill Road, Rodriguez

While the big three above appears to be a formidable triumvirate, there is no shortage of talent among the rest of the cast of possible Belmont Stakes contenders. Gosger just ran his heart out to finish second in the Preakness after winning the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes by two lengths April 12 in his third career start. Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino winner Rodriguez looked to be Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's best shot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby before he was forced to miss the race with a foot bruise. The Authentic colt should be the controlling speed in the Belmont Stakes. Hill Road finished third in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA as a 2-year-old and earned his first stakes win by three-quarters of a length May 10 in the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes. United Arab Emirates Derby Sponsored by Jumeirah runner-up Heart of Honor ran fifth in the Preakness after a poor start in his U.S. debut and is eligible to improve off that first stateside experience.

The Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be a terrific horse race and a fitting finale for the 2025 Triple Crown.