BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a review of leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 3.

King’s latest list reflects the results of two major prep races held on March 29 at Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park and looks ahead the next several days highlighted by three Derby preps at Keeneland, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita Park.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Coglianese Photos/Gulfstream Park

1. Sovereignty

Though he closed for a respectable second in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa behind Tappan Street, he seemed to regress at least a couple of lengths off his Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes-winning performance. The Florida Derby earned him a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, down from a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, and his race was not as visually striking, as he needed motivation from substitute jockey Manny Franco to begin to pick up the leaders on the second turn. Pending the results of this weekend’s preps, he will have at least one more week in the top spot in the rankings in light of his potential to shine over 1 ¼ miles at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Let’s not forget that he rolled by five lengths last fall in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill over eventual Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner Tiztastic and Arkansas Derby winner Sandman.

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2. Journalism

The favorite at 5-1 in Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager that closed in mid-March, DK Horse San Felipe Stakes winner Journalism can validate that support when he races in the April 5 Santa Anita Derby against Citizen Bull, Barnes, Baeza, and longshot Westwood. He will likely have to overcome the tactical disadvantage of limited pace to prevail. Bob Baffert-trained stablemates Citizen Bull and Barnes appear to be the principal speed horses, and the thinking in this corner is that Barnes will be rated to play the role of a pace presser, given his past success with that style. So Umberto Rispoli may need to put his mount into the race early – just as he did in the San Felipe with success – to keep those leaders honest and keep Journalism within striking distance.

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3. Citizen Bull

Those wondering how this speedster will fare if outsprinted or hooked early may have to wait for the May 3 Kentucky Derby for that test. Drawn in post 2, a couple spots inside of barnmate Barnes, he looks positioned again to dictate the pace in the Santa Anita Derby. To date, no one has been able to catch him in three routes. Victories in the 2024 American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse and 2024 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA propelled him to an Eclipse Award, and he was just as sharp in romping in the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis Stakes to kick off his 3-year-old season.

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4. Tappan Street

The Florida Derby winner is the biggest mover in the rankings, climbing from 10^th. He ran to a series of promising workouts in the Florida Derby, reeling in the leaders and finishing so well that late-closing Sovereignty could only make up limited ground on him late. He heads to Louisville, Ky., short on experience with three starts, all at Gulfstream. He is still pretty fresh, having been given eight weeks off between his runner-up finish in the Holy Bull Stakes and his win in the Florida Derby. Now he’ll have five weeks of rest heading into the Derby itself.

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5. Sandman

Though his winning time of 1:50.08 in the Arkansas Derby was slower than the 2024 and 2023 clockings, he still earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, indicating that the Oaklawn Park surface was not playing quickly. Sandman received a dream setup in the race when Speed King and Cornucopian set furious splits, but he still comfortably defeated late-running runner-up Publisher by 2 ½ lengths, and that one similarly benefited from the race flow. The challenge for Sandman in the Kentucky Derby is not the 1 ¼-mile distance, which he should relish, but securing a favorable trip. As a closer, he will have to negotiate considerable traffic in a 20-horse field.

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6. Barnes

The one-time favorite in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager among individual betting interests, Barnes had his stock dip following his no-excuse loss to Journalism in the San Felipe. He has a rebound opportunity in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby, which has only five starters but three Derby Dozen-ranked entrants. After being outworked by stablemates Rodriguez and Cornucopian at Santa Anita Park when breezing without blinkers, Barnes finished with more energy with the equipment March 31, a half-mile timed in :48. With only 18.75 existing Kentucky Derby points, he likely needs a top-two finish in the Santa Anita Derby to be squarely in the race based on historical trends.

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7. Burnham Square 

With Tappan Street winning the Florida Derby, Burnham Square’s performance in defeating that inexperienced rival in the Holy Bull Stakes stands out. Burnham Square’s follow-up race in the Fountain of Youth Stakes had things to like and dislike. He did not appear to be all that engaged, requiring jockey Edgard Zayas to encourage him, but Burnham Square was steady even on a day when he was not putting it all together. The 1 1/8-mile Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, rescheduled for Tuesday, April 8, at Keeneland, gives him a bit more ground. With heavy rain expected in Kentucky this week, the Blue Grass has the potential to be run over an off track, a surface over which he and numerous other Blue Grass entrants have not yet raced.

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8. Coal Battle

His first dirt defeat in the Arkansas Derby came with an excuse. He was keen when passing the stands for the first time, fighting jockey Juan Vargas. Though he would relax to settle through the first turn to sit a good trip behind a hot pace, being unsettled early may have sapped him of some of his customary finish. His final eighth of the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby was :13.70. Trainer Lonnie Briley believes he may have left him “too fresh” by how he trained him. Still, Coal Battle dips a few spots with confidence waning that he will stay 1 ¼. miles as well as some others.

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9. Chancer McPatrick  

A slow pace in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby did not play to his late-running style, and he could not catch a loose-on-the-lead Owen Almighty in his season debut. The fractions of the Saturday’s Blue Grass should unfold with a lively clip. East Avenue, having disappointed in his races from off the pace, would seem a candidate to be sent to the lead, and Owen Almighty and River Thames are naturally speedy types who will also be forwardly placed. Chancer McPatrick, last year’s Hopeful Stakes and Champagne Stakes winner, gets his opportunity to prove his legitimacy as a two-turn performer Saturday.

Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo

10. River Thames

Tappan Street’s ownership has another opportunity for Grade 1 glory Saturday at Keeneland when River Thames runs in the Blue Grass, a race Hall of Famer trainer Todd Pletcher has won four times. The runner-up in the Fountain of Youth, River Thames did the dirty work in that race by chasing pacesetting Neoequos. After putting that one away, he seemed to get a little tired and/or lose focus, which made him vulnerable to Sovereignty’s rally. The Blue Grass should provide a key measuring stick as to whether this colt is a Triple Crown contender or more apt to succeed over middle distances.

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11. Tiztastic

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, the winningest trainer in North American racing history, would appear to have two Derby chances in his pursuit to train his first winner in the first leg of the Triple Crown: Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher and this colt. Both are late-running types that will need trips to go their way in the Derby to upset, though both appear to have adequate stamina. Tiztastic won what appeared to be a softer-than-usual running of the Louisiana Derby held at the Preakness Stakes distance of 1 3/16 miles.

Angelo Lieto/Coglianese Photo

12. Grande

While awaiting word whether Japan’s Luxor Café will accept an invitation to run on the Derby – he will join the Derby Dozen if he’s coming – Grande fills the final spot in the rankings ahead of his matchup against Rodriguez, Captain Cook, and others in Saturday’s Resorts World Casino Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct. Perfect in two starts at Gulfstream Park, he is naturally quick, and like so many progeny of Curlin, able to route. He overcame a slow start to win his debut at a mile and then handled allowance optional claiming foes at 1 1/8 miles without difficulty. Without any Derby points, he needs a 1-2 finish in the Wood to punch a ticket to Kentucky.