This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they were a few weeks ago.

In the second edition of this blog for the 2024 run for the roses, the focus is on the last three weeks of action as the final Derby prep races of 2023 and the first 3-year-old races of 2024 are now in the books.

THREE HEATING UP

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1. Catching Freedom

If you read my recent blog profiling Catching Freedom it probably comes as no surprise that he occupies the top slot here, but there really was very little in my opinion separating him and Gun Runner Stakes winner Track Phantom. In situations such as this, I tend to err on the side of the Derby hopeful I feel has the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby rather than who made the biggest leap and thus I landed on Smarty Jones Stakes winner Catching Freedom. He’s not fast enough right now on paper to be considered a top-tier Kentucky Derby hopeful – 95 Equibase Speed Figure for winning the Smarty Jones Jan. 1 at Oaklawn Park and an 87 Beyer Speed Figure, both career tops – but there is so much to like. He closed from off the pace to win the Smarty Jones by 2 ½ lengths and showed some immaturity that can be cleaned up in the next four months by two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, who won the Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun in 2021. Catching Freedom, by Constitution, is bred to run all day, so he should capably handle the 1 ¼-mile distance and I think his final sixteenth of a mile in 6.25 seconds in the Smarty Jones supports that. Catching Freedom is a 3-year-old colt that I believe should improve steadily and expect to emerge as a serious runner in this division.

Eclipse Sportswire

2. Track Phantom

His 1 ¼-length victory in the Gun Runner Stakes Dec. 23 at Fair Grounds was a very good race and he defeated some well-regarded runners in that win. While the speed figures, as with Catching Freedom above, don’t jump off the page, he’s improved steadily with an Equibase Speed Figure line of 85-90-97-103 and 74-81-88-89 Beyer Speed Figures. He’s 2-for-2 in races around two turns, he has terrific tactical speed, and he’s in the capable hands of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, the winningest trainer in the history of the sport. By an elite sire in Quality Road out of Grade 2 winner Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief, his on-track talent is supported by a strong pedigree, although it slants a bit toward speed and it would not surprise me if there were some distance limitations. He finished his final sixteenth of a mile in 6.84 seconds and his final five-sixteenths of a mile in :32.38 in the Gun Runner, so he came home very slowly, although it should be pointed out that he pressed an opening half-mile in a swift :46.93. There is plenty of room to dream with Track Phantom and with continued development it would be no surprise to see him continue to thrive on the 2024 Derby trail.

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3. Otello

It would be fairly easy to dismiss Otello as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender based on speed figures alone. His 79 Equibase Speed Figure and 76 Beyer Speed Figure for winning the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 1 at Gulfstream Park don’t serve as inspiration to place a significant Kentucky Derby future bet on this chestnut Curlin colt. While speed figures offer a solid baseline in terms of talent, with 2-year-olds and early 3-year-olds they don’t paint a complete picture. These are racehorses learning on the fly with very little experience and foundation. The fact that Otello has overcome trouble twice to win his two starts, both at one mile, from off the pace indicates he’s capable of identifying a target and winning in the face of adversity. He went through a tight opening along the rail entering the stretch and then lost momentum when trapped behind horses in early stretch in the Mucho Macho Man. When jockey Luis Saez angled him to the outside, however, he accelerated willingly and surged to the front with what looked to be fuel in reserve. Otello, from a family that produced long-winded sires Singspiel and Rahy, should relish longer distances: he’s by one of the most influential stamina stallions in the U.S. in Curlin out of a four-time graded stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles in Isabella Sings, by Eskendereya. Otello has lots of room to grow and improve with only two career starts for top trainer Christophe Clement, and I think the best is yet to come even if the speed figures aren’t as encouraging.

Wynstock (Eclipse Sportswire)

Also-Eligible: While I’m skeptical of Remington Springboard Mile winner Otto the Conqueror, it was a tough call to leave Los Alamitos Futurity winner Wynstock outside the top three. The Solomini colt has improved since stretching out from sprints for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. He won a one-mile maiden special weight race by 7 ½ lengths while leading from start to finish Oct. 15 at Santa Anita Park before his half-length score in the Dec. 16 Los Alamitos Futurity. In that race, pacesetter Wynstock showed some resilience in battling back at 13.70-1 odds after he was headed in the stretch to deny Stronghold. The 91 Equibase Speed Figure and 86 Beyer Speed Figure Wynstock earned for the Los Alamitos Futurity are not dazzling, but I’m encouraged by the improvement he showed when trying longer races.

THREE COOLING DOWN

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1. Wine Me Up

The competition at the Breeders’ Cup World Championships is a major hurdle for just about all of the participants, but it can be especially steep for 2-year-olds who were facing maidens and maiden winners in their previous starts and suddenly get dropped into the deep end of the pool. For that reason, I’m inclined to forgive a poor effort in the Breeders’ Cup and reserve judgment for the subsequent start. That’s exactly what I did with Wine Me Up, who followed a second-place finish in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes with a distant eighth-place finish in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, a race dominated by runaway winner Fierceness. I expected a bounce-back race from Wine Me Up in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity Dec. 16 against just four opponents, but he showed little in the stretch for a second straight start and finished fourth, 3 ¼ lengths behind winner Wynstock. Wine Me Up clearly has some ability, but in terms of Kentucky Derby potential his last two starts have not indicated that type of ceiling.

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2. Nash

Nash was a hot prospect after a front-running 10 ¼-length romp Nov. 12, 2023, in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race at Churchill Downs. That victory earned the Medaglia d’Oro colt a sparkling 97 Beyer Speed Figure and a 103 Equibase Speed Figure that led to him being favored at 1-2 odds in the Gun Runner Stakes Dec. 23 at Fair Grounds. Nash did not run a bad race in the Gun Runner, but he flattened out after a rally on the final turn and was no match for Track Phantom and runner-up Snead despite slow late fractions. The Gun Runner was a significant class test for Nash; while he looks like a bona-fide talent, he came up short in his first try against stakes-quality opposition. I’d expect an improved effort in his next stakes start, but those expecting the unveiling of a potential rising star in the Gun Runner were surely a bit disappointed with the odds-on favorite.

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3. Coach Prime

Coach Prime, named after Hall of Fame football player and University of Colorado coach Deion Sanders, broke out in his second start when switching from turf to dirt for a Nov. 10, 2023, maiden special weight race going a two-turn mile at Del Mar. The Quality Road colt overcame a troubled start with an eye-catching rally from off the pace en route to a 7 ¼-length runaway win. Coach Prime was the 4-5 betting favorite off that impressive maiden win for the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, but he did not show the same late kick in running third behind 13.70-1 winner Wynstock and third-betting choice Stronghold in the five-horse field. Development is rarely linear for 2- and 3-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby trail, so there’s no reason to overreact to a third in Coach Prime’s graded stakes debut, but it’s safe to say there were many bettors and fans expecting a bigger effort in his first try in prime time.