This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they were a few weeks ago.

In this third edition of this blog for the 2024 run for the roses, the focus is on the key Derby prep races on Feb. 3 as well as a few other promising 3-year-olds from recent weeks.

This blog will become more consistent in the coming weeks leading into the May 4 Kentucky Derby with a steady slate of qualifying points races on the horizon.

Note: The most impressive winner from Feb. 3, Nysos, is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby because his trainer, Bob Baffert, is banned by Churchill Downs in the wake of Media Spirit’s disqualification for a medication violation in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. See more below in the “Of Note” section under the Three Cooling Down.

THREE HEATING UP

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1. Mystik Dan

I tried to make a case for each of the winners of the Kentucky Derby points races for the top spot, but despite a few lingering questions I kept coming back to runaway Southwest Stakes victor Mystik Dan. The first reason is simple: he ran fast. Fast is important – essential, actually – for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, and Mystik Dan’s winning Equibase Speed Figure (110), Beyer Speed Figure (101), and Brisnet speed rating (101) for the Southwest towered over Holy Bull Stakes winner Hades and Withers Stakes winner Uncle Heavy. He also beat the deepest group, on paper, by eight lengths and finished well with a final sixteenth of a mile in 5.93 seconds according to Equibase. Sure, the breakout stakes win came on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park after an ideal rail-skimming trip, but Mystik Dan has another fast race on his résumé, his maiden win on Nov. 12, 2023, and he’s in the capable hands of Kenny McPeek, who won the 2022 Belmont Stakes with Sarava and the 2020 Preakness Stakes with Swiss Skydiver. His next start will most likely be the Arkansas Derby on March 30 at Oaklawn and I expect the Goldencents colt to run well.

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2. Hades

While the speed figures do not paint an especially rosy picture, Hades looked champion Fierceness in the eyeball entering the stretch of the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park and put him away after setting the pace in the 1 1/16-mile race. The Awesome Slew gelding then had enough stamina in reserve to fend off a late rally from Domestic Product to prevail by two lengths in his stakes debut. A $130,000 purchase as a 2-year-old at the 2023 OBS Spring sale by trainer Joe Orseno on behalf of owners D. J. Stable and Robert Cotran, Hades improved to three wins in as many starts. “I bought him with some high expectations, and he lived up to them,” Orseno said after Hades aced the class test in the Holy Bull. Hades earned a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, a 90 Beyer Speed Figure, and a 93 Brisnet rating, which are solid but unspectacular figures, and his final five-sixteenths of a mile in :31.82 likewise does not inspire. That said, he has only three starts under his belt and looked pretty green in the stretch Saturday at Gulfstream Park, so there is room for both mental and physical improvement in the coming weeks. He could make his next start in either the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 2 or Florida Derby on March 30, and how much Hades improves very likely will determine if he is a bona-fide Kentucky Derby contender or not.

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3. Uncle Heavy

It was a pretty even between Hades and Uncle Heavy when evaluating these two for the second and third slots this week, but defeating Fierceness gave the former the slight edge. One advantage Uncle Heavy might have is stamina as he’s now 2-for-2 in two-turn races and posted a career-high 95 Equibase Speed Figure, 84 Beyer Speed Figure, and 94 Brisnet rating is his first try at 1 1/8 miles in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. The Social Inclusion colt closed resolutely to nip front-running El Grande O by a nose at 9.30-1 odds on a muddy (sealed) main track. Said trainer Butch Reid: “I have always felt all along with this horse, the farther the better. He certainly proved that today.” Along those lines, Uncle Heavy was pretty wide throughout the race, so one could argue the win was better than it looks on paper. My main concerns with Uncle Heavy are the level of competition in the Withers – the New York Derby preps tend to attract higher quality competition as winter turns to spring – and his final furlong in :13.04 and three-eighths of a mile in :38.85, which were just OK … although the “off” track could have played a role in that. Uncle Heavy is at least really interesting as a Derby prospect and one to keep tabs on. My hunch is I might be underselling him a bit at this point.

Also-eligible: A couple of maiden winners from January dazzled on the track: Speak Easy and Hall of Fame. Speak Easy won his career debut for trainer Todd Pletcher and owners Siena Farm and WinStar Farm Jan. 27 at Gulfstream Park. The bay Constitution colt pressed the pace and powered to a 1 ¾-length win in a victory that earned a 92 Equibase Speed Figure and an eye-catching 100 Beyer Speed Figure. He looks like a fast racehorse out of Grade 1-placed Fun, by Harlan’s Holiday. … Likewise, Hall of Fame turned heads with a 10 ¼-length romp Feb. 20 at Fair Grounds in his second career start for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. The Gun Runner colt earned a 97 Equibase Speed Figure and a 94 Beyer Speed Figure for the win at 1 1/16 miles after running second in a sprint in his November debut at Churchill Downs.

THREE COOLING DOWN

BENOIT photo

1. Fierceness

Look, it’s fair to say Fierceness looked like he needed a race when he came up empty entering the stretch of the Holy Bull Stakes in his return from a three-month layoff. I agree, that was not a fully cranked Fierceness. But entering the race, Fierceness looked like the fastest 3-year-old dirt horse on the planet on paper and he towered over the other six starters in this field as the 1-5 favorite. He’s now disappointed as an odds-on favorite in two of his four career races. The talent is unquestionably there, but thus far he’s shown both flashes of brilliance and inconsistency. I expected the 6 ¼-length winner of the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance to leave the opposition reeling in his wake at the top of the Gulfstream stretch tracking a half-mile in a leisurely :50.53. Instead, he finished 3 ½ lengths behind pacesetter Hades, who chugged home his final sixteenth of a mile in 6.79 seconds. The good news is Fierceness reportedly came out of the race in good order and we know there are better days ahead for the City of Light colt, but his status as the early Kentucky Derby favorite took a hit in the Holy Bull.

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2. Otto the Conqueror

I had my doubts about Otto the Conqueror after he ran his winning streak to three with a three-quarter-length score in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes because that first stakes win came on a muddy track, he finished slowly, and his speed figures took a step back when stretching out in distance. It seemed that the muddy track at Oaklawn Park for the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes should suit the Street Sense colt given he had won on a similar surface in his previous race, but the pacesetter faded badly when headed and finished 18 ¼ lengths behind winner Mystik Dan. I still think Otto the Conqueror is a really nice 3-year-old, but my guess is he might be better suited to sprinting. He’s worth giving another shot on the Derby trail, for sure, especially to see what he can do in a two-turn race on a fast track. But the Southwest was a step in the wrong direction.

Lauren King/Coglianese Photo

3. Otello

I considered Carbone for the final spot here but his dull effort in the Southwest Stakes was his first try on an “off” track, so I thought he deserved a mulligan. As for Otello, I was pretty high on him entering the Holy Bull Stakes despite uninspiring speed figures because I liked what I saw visually in both his November debut win and half-length score in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 1 for trainer Christophe Clement. The well-bred Curlin colt just never really showed much in the Holy Bull as he was never a threat from start to finish while running sixth, beaten by 6 ¾ lengths. With only three starts, there is obviously room for improvement in the coming weeks for Otello but I was hoping he might rise to the level of the competition in the Holy Bull and it just didn’t happen.

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Of Note: Horses trained by Bob Baffert ineligible to accrue Kentucky Derby qualifying points or to compete in the first jewel of the Triple Crown while under his care as part of a ban instituted by Churchill Downs in the wake of Medina Spirit’s disqualification for a medication violation in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. In order for horses trained by Baffert to become eligible for the Kentucky Derby, they needed to be transferred to a trainer eligible to compete in the race by Feb. 1. None of Baffert’s runners were moved to other barns – thus the 3-year-olds in his care will not compete in the 2024 Kentucky Derby (or Longines Kentucky Oaks, for that matter, regarding the fillies). Last weekend’s runaway Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner Nysos was the most impressive winner, by an eighth pole, of a Kentucky Derby prep race last weekend, but he will have to target the Preakness Stakes or the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets if he is going to take home a trophy in this year’s Triple Crown. Based on the 105 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for the Lewis, the highest Beyer for 3-year-old in 2024, Nysos would be very tough in the Preakness. … Grade 1 winner Locked, third in the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, will miss a planned start in the Sam F. Davis Stakes Feb. 10 at Tampa Bay Downs after Daily Racing Form reported the Todd Pletcher trainee missed a workout with a fever.