Welcome to 2024 Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule that offers qualifying points for the first leg of the series. The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will be held May 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a closer look at Mystik Dan, winner of the $800,000 Southwest Stakes on Feb. 3 at Oaklawn Park. Mystik Dan earned 20 points toward qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby with that win and with 21 total points moved into third place on the latest Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

Racing Résumé: Some contenders on the road to the Kentucky Derby are pretty easy to peg into a contender or pretender category. Mystik Dan is not one of those 3-year-olds, for me at least.

Based solely on his eight-length romp in the Southwest Stakes Saturday, which was genuinely a “wow” performance at 11.40-1 odds, he looks like a rising star. Not only did Mystik Dan dominate what looked like by far the most talented, deepest field from among four Kentucky Derby prep races last weekend, he finished very fast with a final sixteenth of a mile in 5.93 seconds according to Equibase and a final five-sixteenths of a mile in about :30.11. The Goldencents colt was moving exceptionally well late in the 1 1/16-mile prep race.

He also showed a previous flash of elite ability with a maiden win by 7 ¾ lengths Nov. 12 sprinting at Churchill Downs, but he was inconsistent after that with back-to-back fifth-place finishes in an allowance race at Churchill and the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn.

Also, his breakout stakes win in the Southwest came on an “off” (muddy) track and he got a dream trip hugging a rail that had been pretty strong for runners all day.

“I was actually thinking about [getting to the rail] the whole way in the post parade there. I was just trying to figure out what horse I could get behind and get to the fence,” winning jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. said. “We were able to save ground on both turns. When we got to the second turn, I called on him and he picked it up. I was able to kind of just wait for a spot. When a seam opened up barely on the inside, he shot through there and did the rest for us.”

Mystik Dan improved to two wins and one second from five starts for trainer Kenny McPeek, and he figures to have his supporters and detractors between now and his next start. The Southwest was postponed for a week due to inclement weather, meaning the Rebel Stakes Feb. 24 at Oaklawn is only three weeks after the Southwest. McPeek said because of the timing, he’s inclined to wait for the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby March 30 for Mystik Dan’s next race.

Speed Figures: Mystik Dan earned a 110 Equibase Speed Figure for the Southwest Stakes and a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, both new career bests. He improved 10 points from the 100 Equibase Speed Figure he earned in his maiden win sprinting and boosted his Beyer five points from a 96, also earned in his 7 ¾-length win Nov. 11 at Churchill. Unlike many of the Derby contenders profiled to date, Mystik Dan has run a legitimately fast race. That alone makes him quite interesting as a prospect.

Running Style: Another factor that makes Mystik Dan interesting is that he settled much more comfortably early in the Southwest than he had in his previous starts, tracking from sixth in the early stages from about three to five lengths off the pace. He had been more prominent early in his previous races, including his pace-pressing maiden win at 5 ½ furlongs that was discussed previously. Speed is a valuable tool, and now we know that not only does Mystik Dan have it, he has matured to the point where he can ration his speed in races.

Connections: Mystik Dan is owned and was bred by the partnership of Arkansans Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby III, and 4 G Racing out of the Colonel John mare Ma’am. Trained by McPeek, Ma’am raced for Lance Gasaway, Greg Gasaway, David Gasaway, and Daniel Hamby and posted four wins, three seconds, and five thirds in 23 starts while earning $167,923.

“The cool thing about [Mystik Dan] is that I bought his mother for Lance and the group, and she had a good career and then we foaled him at the farm in Lexington,” said McPeek, referring to his Magdalena Farm. “I recommended the mating [to Goldencents]. He needed some speed and, boy, he's fast. It's exciting.”

Ken McPeek is approaching his milestone 2,000^th career win with 1,995 victories through Feb. 4. Two of those wins came in Triple Crown races, winning the 2020 Preakness Stakes with the filly Swiss Skydiver and the 2002 Belmont Stakes with 70.25-1 longshot Sarava. McPeek, whose best Kentucky Derby finish was a second in 1995 with Tejano Run, has also trained Grade 1 winners such as Take Charge Lady, Rattle N Roll, Harlan’s Holiday, Golden Ticket, Daddys Lil Darling, Noble’s Promise, Classic Causeway, Restless Rider, and Defining Purpose.

Horse and rider before the race. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Brian Hernandez Jr. has ridden Mystik Dan in four of his five races so far and is first-call jockey for McPeek. Hernandez took out his jockey’s license in 2003 and won the 2004 Eclipse Award as outstanding apprentice jockey. He has won more than 2,500 career races, including the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic riding Fort Larned and Grade 1s aboard the aforementioned Rattle N Roll, Restless Rider, and Defining Purpose for McPeek.

Pedigree Notes: Mystik Dan is from the sixth crop of two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents, who proved capable of carrying his speed 1 1/8 miles in the 2013 Santa Anita Derby. He is one of Goldencents’ 31 stakes winners, including multiple Grade 1-winning turf runner Going to Vegas and 2019 Louisiana Derby winner By My Standards.

The aforementioned Ma’am, by Colonel John, is the dam (mother) of Mystik Dan, her first foal and lone starter to date. Ma’am’s four wins came at distances ranging from a mile to 1 1/16 miles and she hails from a family that has produced Grade 1 winners Laragh, Siphonic, and Smooth Like Strait, in addition to promising young sire Summer Front.

Derby Potential: In evaluating Mystik Dan, I can see reasonable cause for concern. His breakout stakes win came on an off track and he got a dream trip, and prior to Southwest win he had finished fifth in back-to-back starts.

However, those two defeats look like they have valid excuses. The first, an allowance-optional claiming race on Nov. 25, came just 13 days after his dominant maiden win, a quick turnaround especially after a big effort. My guess is that it was too much too quickly. In the Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 1, Mystik Dan was second and within a head of the lead in deep stretch before fading late in a race that he probably needed in terms of building stamina.

I would like to see Mystik Dan repeat his Southwest effort in a two-turn race facing stakes competition on a fast (dry) main track, but it’s difficult to ignore some impressive speed figures and how strongly he finished Feb. 3 at Oaklawn. He also owns a win at Churchill Downs and has shown he is versatile in terms of running style and handling both fast and muddy surfaces. I think the positives outweigh the questions at this point for Mystik Dan.