BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his latest Derby Dozen Presented by Spendthrift, with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 6.

The final qualifying points prep for Derby 149 was held April 15: the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Now, final preparations are at hand for Derby contenders as they arrive at Churchill Downs, settle in, and conduct final workouts ahead of the big race.

Check out America’s Best Racing's Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Forte 

The Kentucky Derby favorite took his first laps around the Churchill Downs oval April 18 after arriving by van from Florida early the previous day. His mid-month arrival should give him two breezes beneath the Twin Spires in preparation for the May 6 classic. He will gain an opportunity to get accustomed to his surroundings – not that he has shown he needs it. Last year’s champion juvenile male won at Belmont Park, Saratoga Race Course, Keeneland and Gulfstream Park, taking the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa at the latter track after training off-site at Palm Beach Downs.

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2. Tapit Trice 

If one were to simply compare last-race Derby preps, his victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes was arguably better than Forte’s Florida Derby triumph. He was more responsive to his rider on the second turn – while Forte needed the stretch to find high gear – and the Blue Grass seemed to draw more quality, top to bottom. That noted, he still rates behind stablemate Forte due to the latter’s body of work and because this colt is still prone to tardy starts and dislike of kickback.

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3. Angel of Empire 

The Arkansas Derby and Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford winner breezed a half-mile in company with Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby seventh-place finisher Tapit’s Conquest at Churchill April 15 in :48.20. Though they crossed the wire and galloped out on relatively even terms, he appeared to travel the easier of the two. Trainer Brad Cox has raved about this colt’s stamina, suggesting he should relish the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Derby. Jockey Flavien Prat and Cox have connected at a 37% clip together in 2022-23, and Prat’s first pairing with Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby resulted in a 4 ¼-length victory.

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4. Practical Move 

Though middle or outside posts are typically preferred by the connections of horses in the Kentucky Derby, this colt seemingly would be fine with something toward the inside, an extreme post like the fence notwithstanding. He has come up the rail to win his last three starts in Southern California, most recently the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, and is not intimidated by such trips. He appears a bit more tactical than the three that lead him on this list, often making backstretch or early second-turn moves on his way to victory. While he may handle 1 ¼ miles, not convinced he will move up with the distance to the extent that those ranked ahead of him should.

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5. Two Phil’s  

He is a tricky horse to evaluate, having won the 1 1/8-mile Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park on Tapeta in fast time (1:49.03), but with the uncertainty of how that synthetic win will transfer to dirt in the Kentucky Derby. He is not a turf horse that figures to bomb on dirt, already being a graded winner on the main track at Churchill Downs. But his two attempts on dirt this year against graded company resulted in a second to Instant Coffee in the Lecomte Stakes and a third to Angel of Empire in the Risen Star.

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6. Verifying 

Of the horses that have yet to win a stakes race, he rates highest in the Derby Dozen. Second in the Blue Grass, he turned in a performance that would have been good enough to win many Kentucky Derby preps, running a 102 Equibase Speed Figure in a neck loss to Tapit Trice. He enjoyed a no-trouble, pace-pressing trip in the Blue Grass – an improvement upon his boxed-in fourth-place run in the slop in the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in his only other stakes outing of 2023.

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7. Derma Sotogake

Last year’s opening quarter-mile in :21.78 in the Kentucky Derby was the fastest in race history and ruined the chances of the early leaders. But the complexion of this year’s field appears much different, with a moderate or slow pace anticipated with few speed horses among the anticipated 20-horse lineup. Having won up front in the UAE Derby Sponsored by Atlantis the Royal at Meydan, this Japanese horse seems a logical candidate to try to take command early. Though some classy horses have won the UAE Derby, 18 participants from the race have competed in the Kentucky Derby, and not one has hit the board.

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8. Kingsbarns

Disarm, second to Kingsbarns last month in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, did not flatter the form with his third-place effort in last Saturday’s Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Disarm was 4 ¾ lengths behind victorious maiden riser First Mission in the Lexington, compared to 3 ½ lengths behind Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby. Perfect in three starts, having won a maiden and allowance race before the Louisiana Derby, Kingsbarns possesses tactical speed, an attribute in a Derby seemingly absent much pace.

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9. Confidence Game 

Bringing his colt in fresh into the Kentucky Derby, without a start since winning the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes, trainer Keith Desormeaux looked to ensure his 3-year-old’s fitness by giving him a mile workout April 14 at Churchill Downs in 1:38.20. Traditionalists are unlikely to care for this colt’s racing inactivity, though speed-figure players might view him as less likely to regress off a career-best effort in the Rebel with time between races. Confidence Game is a winner over the Churchill strip, notably defeating eventual Holy Bull Stakes winner Rocket Can in an allowance optional claiming route last fall.

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10. Mage 

He and Kingsbarns are the least experienced members of the Derby Dozen, having each started just three times. He is greener than that rival, having broken poorly in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Those tardy beginnings cost him positioning and forced wide rallies to catch up. Mage’s talent is undeniable. On the second turn of the Florida Derby, it was this colt, and not Forte, who was picking off rivals at the highest rate of speed. His catchup move resulted in a bit of late fatigue, and he settled for second, run down by Forte in the final sixteenth of a mile.

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11. Hit Show

His close second in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, following his win in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, suggests he is the top New York participant pointed to this year’s Kentucky Derby. Not since Funny Cide in 2003 has a Wood participant won the Derby, though the prep has produced 20 winners through Derby history. Last year, Mo Donegal, the Wood winner, ran fifth when starting from the fence in the Kentucky Derby before later taking the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, and Wood runner-up Early Voting  captured the Preakness Stakes after skipping the Derby.

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12. Skinner 

As of the morning of April 18, he needs two defections from the probable Derby lineup to gain entry, but it is not out of the ordinary for two horses to bow out – if not more – in the lead-up to the Run for the Roses. Derby upsetter Rich Strike worked his way into the starting gate last year after being multiple horses down on the alternate list a week out. He started when he drew in as an also-eligible following a scratch from the body of the field. Thrice graded stakes-placed and with quality performance figures, late-running Skinner has been compromised a bit by wide trips in his last two starts, though that more commonly occurs with a closer.