A deep, competitive field has assembled for the 2026 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf Oct. 31 at Keeneland. History can help us narrow down the contenders and identify the most likely winner.

The Breeders’ Cup Turf dates back to 1984. Reviewing the history of the 1 ½-mile grass race reveals a number of recurring trends bettors can use to gauge the strongest win candidates in the 2026 edition.

Keep the following eight historical trends in mind as your handicap the Breeders’ Cup Turf:

Late runners perform best

Horses rallying from off the pace enjoy the strongest success in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Since 2010, 12 out of 16 winners (75%) were positioned no closer than fifth place after the opening half-mile.

Count on the favorite to finish in the top four

The betting favorite has recorded a top-four finish in 15 of the last 18 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. They’ve been especially effective in recent years, taking first place four times since 2018.

International raiders are dominant

No fewer than 23 of the last 28 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (82%) were international challengers based outside of North America. Foreign runners have been especially formidable since 2015, winning 10 of the last 11 editions of the Turf.

Favor horses bred outside of North America

Did you know 27 of the 43 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (63%) were bred outside of North America? This tally includes 10 of the last 11 winners.

Horses bred in Ireland have been especially successful in the Turf, winning 18 editions.

O’Brien and Appleby are formidable trainers

Aidan O'Brien (Eclipse Sportswire)

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Turf a record seven times, all with Irish-breds. He’s scored five wins in the last 15 years with Auguste Rodin, Highland Reel, Found, Magician, and St. Nicholas Abbey. All told, O’Brien has saddled 37 horses in the Turf, and 18 of them (49%) have finished third or better.

Charlie Appleby is another top trainer in the Turf. He’s started eight horses in five editions of the Turf, and he’s secured three wins courtesy of Yibir and Rebel’s Romance. Last year, two Appleby runners finished second and third in the Turf.

Consider horses ridden by Buick and Moore

Two active jockeys have compiled strong records in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

William Buick has ridden seven times in the Turf, recording two wins and two seconds for a 29% win rate and a 57% in-the-money rate.

Ryan Moore’s record is even stronger. From 15 mounts in the Turf, he’s compiled five wins, four seconds, three thirds, and two fourths. His win rate is 33%, and 80% of his mounts have finished in the top three.

Bet proven Grade/Group 1 winners

Since the turn of the century, 22 out of 27 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (81%) had previously won at least one race at the Grade 1 or Group 1 level.

Don’t underestimate fillies and mares

Although only 16 fillies and mares have started in the Breeders’ Cup Turf since 2015, three of them (Found, Enable, and Tarnawa) have finished first. In both 2018 and 2020, females ran 1-2 in the Turf.

Conclusions

Diamond Necklace (Eclipse Sportswire)

History suggests #12 Diamond Necklace (3-1) is a strong threat to win the 2026 Breeders’ Cup Turf.

An Irish-bred filly trained by Aidan O’Brien, Diamond Necklace has won four Group 1 races in Europe. She often rallies from midfield and exits a strong third-place finish against males in the prestigious Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in France.

The morning-line odds list Diamond Necklace as the favorite, so the only knock against her historical profile is the fact she won’t be ridden by Moore or Buick. However, it’s encouraging to note her jockey – Christophe Soumillon – won the 2005 Breeders’ Cup Turf aboard Shirocco.

Another formidable Irish-bred trained by O’Brien is #2 Benvenuto Cellini (6-1). Winner of the Group 1 Irish Derby, Benvenuto Cellini exits a ninth-place finish in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, but during the summer he finished a solid third against a deep field of older rivals in the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Benvenuto Cellini is a late closer, so he has the right running style for the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s a bigger price than Diamond Necklace on the morning line, but he’ll be ridden by Ryan Moore, so that’s a positive, especially since three of O’Brien’s last four Turf winners were guided by Moore.

Considering how well fillies and mares have performed in the Turf since 2015, Diamond Necklace might hold a slight historical advantage over Benvenuto Cellini. But either would be an unsurprising winner from a historical perspective.

Enjoy the race!