Three horses have won the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF over the last 15 editions at 30-1 odds or higher and all 15 winners had one trait in common. Let’s explore what recent history tells bettors to look for when evaluating one of the most exciting races of the 14 World Championship races.

For the last few years, I used a 25-year sample of data as the source for these trends, but for the 2026 Breeders’ Cup I’ve narrowed the focus to 15 years. I did this for two reasons.

1. So much has changed in 25 years. Training methods and philosophies have evolved multiple times in a quarter-century, some of the tracks that horses prepped at don’t even exist anymore, and I just didn’t think Wilko’s 2004 Juvenile win or Volponi’s 2002 Classic at Arlington International (which no longer exists) are especially relevant.
2. The second reason is simply that these blogs felt stale – adding one winner from the previous year to a 25-year data set and subtracting one often didn’t change much from year to year.

Let’s start fresh with a 15-year sample and try to find some key trends that will be useful for evaluating this year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile Oct. 31 at Keeneland Race Course and then take a look at the prospective field and evaluate how the runners fit these trends.

Fade the Speed

Deep closer Uni in 2019. (Eclipse Sportswire)

No Breeders’ Cup race tilts more heavily toward off-the-pace runners than the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The last winner to lead in the Mile from start to finish was Lure in 1992. That’s 33 straight editions of the Mile without a front-running winner.

Over the last 15 editions from 2011 to 2025, 12 of the 15 winners raced outside the top three after opening quarter-mile while six winners raced in 10th or worse. Fourteen of the last 15 winners raced third or farther back off the pace after the opening half-mile and 10 were more than three lengths off the pace. There was only one winner who led in early stretch — Tepin, a stalker/press the pace runner, at Keeneland in 2015 — and only World Approval in 2017 won as a press-the-pace type.

Combine these 15-year trends with the fact that the Keeneland turf typically favors closers, as outlined by Noel Michaels before the start of the fall meet, and it’s tough to endorse a pacesetter in this spot. If you really like a speedy entrant, consider keying them for second or third. This is a race that has been won by horses from off the pace for 33 years in a row.

Look No Further

When evaluating the field for the 2026 Breeders’ Cup Mile, there is no need to look beyond runners coming out of a Keeneland or Woodbine prep or runners shipping in from Europe. Seven of the last 15 winners prepped for the Mile at Keeneland — five in the Coolmore Turf Mile and two in the First Lady Stakes — and three made their previous start in the Woodbine Mile. The other five were international shippers who prepped in races in Europe.

But the international angle is even stronger than that 33% strike rate as two of the last three winners, Master of The Seas in 2023 and Notable Speech last year, were based in Europe with Charlie Appleby but prepped for the Breeders’ Cup in North America. Master of The Seas was second by a nose in the Turf Mile at Keeneland before winning by the same margin at the Breeders’ Cup; Notable Speech used a win in the Woodbine Mile as a springboard to success in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Seven of the last 15 winners (including five of the last six) were based in England, Ireland, or France, with Appleby winning the race four times in the last five years (2021, 2022, 2023, and 2025).

Class Over Current Form

Established class has been more impactful over the last 15 years than recent form. Twelve of 15 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners (and 15 of last 18) were proven winners at the Grade or Group 1 level, but only six of the last 15 won their final prep race for the World Championships and three of the last 15 were unplaced in their final start before the race.

The trio that entered off an unplaced finish also provided the biggest upsets in this timeframe ...

The Upsets

30-1 shot Karakontie in 2014. (Eclipse Sportswire)

While the Breeders’ Cup Mile has been a somewhat formful race over the last 15 editions, with six winning favorites, eight winners at 3.6-1 or less, and median winning odds of 5.1-1, the race has produced some truly shocking outcomes.

Court Vision lit up the tote board at 64.80-1 odds in his 2011 victory; Karakontie prevailed as a 30-1 longshot in 2014; and Order of Australia authored the second biggest upset in Breeders’ Cup history when he pulled off a stunner at 73.20-1 at Keeneland in 2020. Tourist at 12.40-1 also produced a double-digit-odds victory in this 15-race sample in 2016.

None of the four entered the race off a victory, with Court Vision, Karakontie, and Order of Australia seventh or worse in their final pre-Breeders’ Cup start. Court Vision, Karakontie, and Tourist were established winners at the Group/Grade 1 level and true milers, although Karakontie had been tested at longer distances without success after winning a French classic at one mile.

Karakontie and Order of Australia both were 3-year-olds when they pulled off their Breeders’ Cup Mile upsets. Order of Australia was the true head-scratcher even though he came from the barn of legendary Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien. Order of Australia had never won a stakes race, had been beaten by more than 47 lengths at the Group 3 level in his previous race (although he won his two starts before that), and his six starts that year had come at an average distance of 10.74 furlongs (a little less than 1 3/8 miles). He’s the only winner of this race in the last 15 years who did not profile as a true miler.

Combined, the quartet won only four of 19 starts before the Breeders’ Cup Mile in the year of their upset win. All were dedicated off-the-pace runners.

Analyzing the 2026 Field

Notable Speech (Eclipse Sportswire)

Let’s begin with the leading U.S.-based contenders: Rhetorical enters off a front-running 2 ¼-length win at Keeneland in the Coolmore Turf Mile; Deterministic set the pace and faded to second in the Woodbine Mile; Cabo Spirit led from start to finish to win the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita Park; Zulu Kingdom pressed the pace and faded to fifth in the Turf Mile at Keeneland; and Lush Lips was nipped at the wire in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland.

Cabo Spirit is a pacesetter who has never won a Grade 1 and ships in from California, which is not a recipe for success. The other four all are established Grade 1 winners coming out of prep races at Keeneland or Woodbine, but all of them have set or pressed the pace on multiple occasions throughout their careers and it probably is the preferred running style for Rhetorical and Deterministic, who profile as the best U.S. contenders. Rhetorical, Zulu Kingdom, and Lush Lips all own Grade 1 wins on the Keeneland turf and should run well, but it will be a monumental challenge to try to control the pace and win this race. While none of Rhetorical, Zulu Kingdom, and Lush Lips is a “need-the-lead” type, I prefer that trio in the second and third spots on exacta and trifecta tickets.

Notable Speech won this race a year ago at Del Mar and enters the race off a 1 ¼-length win in the Woodbine Mile for Appleby, who is seeking his fifth win in this race in six years. The 5-year-old by Dubawi ticks every box, but one blemish is he was unplaced in the spring in the Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes in his lone previous try on this turf course at Keeneland. That came after a five-month layoff, however, and he enters off back-to-back Group/Grade 1 wins.

Should Notable Speech fail in his repeat bid, multiple international contenders look capable of winning this race depending upon which runners wind up shipping across the Atlantic. Juddmonte homebred 4-year-old filly Blue Bolt is unbeaten in six starts with four in a row coming in Group 1 races in England and Ireland for trainer Andrew Balding. She also is reportedly under consideration for the Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf and would be a leading contender in either race. Trainer Aidan O’Brien’s classic-winning 3-year-old filly True Love earned her third career Group 1 win in the Qatar Prix de la Foret Oct. 4 at Longchamp and O’Brien’s dual Grade 1-winning 3-year-old Constitution River could cut back in distance for the Breeders’ Cup Mile after running fifth Oct. 17 in the Champion Stakes at Ascot. Of the duo, True Love fits the profile of a true miler. Order of Australia (trained by O’Brien) really is the only winner cutting back from consistently running in route races to a mile over the last 15 years, so Constitution River is not necessarily as neat a fit. Lake Forest enters off a runner-up finish in the Turf Mile Oct. 3 at Keeneland for trainer William Haggas but has never won at the Group/Grade 1 level; Ten Bob Tony could fly under the radar after a couple of seconds in Group 1 races, but he won the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in June (and he’s named Ten Bob Tony!); and Hotazhell was a Group 1 winner at one mile in 2024, but has been racing primarily at 1 ¼ miles this season.