Through the decades, turf sprints have risen in prominence across the United States racing landscape. Some of the most fascinating, both from a sporting and handicapping perspective, take place over the downhill turf course at Santa Anita Park.

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The downhill turf course is most famously used for sprints measuring about 6 1/2 furlongs in distance. The course starts on a hill and makes a right-hand turn before sweeping to the left. It briefly crosses the dirt track before joining the homestretch of the regular turf course. According to altitude data from Google Earth, the start of the downhill turf course sits nearly 40 feet higher than the finish line.

The unique nature of Santa Anita’s downhill turf sprints suggests they warrant special handicapping attention. Which jockeys ride best on the course? Which running styles excel dashing down the hill? And do horses stretching out or cutting back in distance perform better?

We’ll seek to answer all these questions and more using Equibase Race Lens, an excellent tool for crunching data and uncovering favorable betting angles. All data encompasses the past five years.

Morning-line favorites

Do morning-line favorites run well in downhill turf sprints? Or does the unique configuration trigger more non-favored winners than usual?

Using Race Lens, we’ve analyzed the performances of morning-line favorites in downhill turf sprints versus all turf races at Santa Anita in an effort to glean any differences.

It turns out the win, place, and show percentages of morning-line favorites in downhill turf sprints are almost identical to those of favorites in all Santa Anita grass races. From a return-on-investment perspective, the two categories are likewise similar (-16% vs. -20%).

Post positions

Race Lens can be used to study the performance of individual post positions, or groups of post positions. We analyzed how post positions influence the results of downhill turf sprints by dividing the post positions into four categories: posts 1-3, posts 4-6, posts 7-9, and posts 10+. The results are enlightening.

Betting all horses breaking from double-digit post positions is a profitable endeavor, producing an impressive 75% ROI. Over the past five years, 11 out of 16 winners breaking from posts 10+ started at odds between 7-1 and 40-1, suggesting bettors may be underestimating the chances of these runners.

Cut back or stretch out?

The about 6 1/2-furlong distance of Santa Anita’s downhill turf sprints is longer than many grass dashes, but still much shorter than a route race. So is it better to bet horses stretching out in distance or cutting back in trip? Or, alternatively, should you favor distance specialists exiting a race over 6 1/2 furlongs?

Here’s what the Race Lens data reveals:

Horses exiting races shorter than 6 1/2 furlongs and horses exiting races longer than 6 1/2 furlongs compile similar win percentages (12% vs. 11%) in downhill turf sprints. However, you’ll lose less money (-12% ROI vs. -25% ROI) betting the runners who are cutting back in distance.

Horses exiting a race at 6 1/2 furlongs (or about 6 1/2 furlongs) achieve a somewhat higher win percentage (14%), but they also generate the poorest ROI (-27%), suggesting they’re a bit overbet.

Running styles

Race Lens groups horses into a number of different running style categories: early, early/presser, presser, sustained/presser, and sustained. There’s also the projected leader (the horse that Race Lens predicts will lead at the first call) and "unknown" horses without an assigned running style.

Do any of these running styles outperform the others in downhill turf sprints? Let’s find out.

Impressively, betting Race Lens projected leaders in downhill sprints has been a profitable exercise, generating a 20% win rate and +6% ROI. The angle has produced a few lucrative longshots in the past five years, with winners starting at 12-1, 20-1, and 31-1.

Otherwise, pressers perform best with a 17% win rate and a nearly break-even -6% ROI.

Jockeys

Over the last five years, five jockeys have won more than 100 turf races at Santa Anita: Juan Hernandez, Umberto Rispoli, Hector Berrios, Antonio Fresu, and Flavien Prat.

First, we’ll use StatsMaster (powered by TrackMaster, an Equibase company) to detail how these jockeys have performed in all turf races at Santa Anita. Then we’ll use Race Lens to single out their records in downhill turf sprints and compare the two results:

All Santa Anita turf races

Downhill turf sprints

All five jockeys we studied compiled lower win percentages in downhill turf sprints than in all turf races at Santa Anita.

The smallest dip came from Hernandez, who went from a 19% win rate in all turf races to an 18% rate in downhill turf sprints. The biggest drop came from Flavien Prat, whose win rate decreased from 26% to 19%, though his 19% win rate is still the highest in downhill turf sprints among the five jockeys we analyzed.

Hernandez came out on top from an ROI perspective. His -15% ROI is slightly better than his -16% ROI in all Santa Anita turf races.

Conclusions

After analyzing the data, here are our main handicapping takeaways:

Bet the horse that Race Lens projects will be the early leader. It’s been a profitable betting angle over the last five years, generating a +6% ROI.

Horses prepare to cross over dirt onto the turf homestretch (Eclipse Sportswire)

Post positions 10+ are advantageous. This group produced the highest win percentage among post position groups we studied, and betting all horses breaking from posts 10+ yielded a +75% ROI.

Horses cutting back in distance tend to be underestimated in downhill turf sprints. Blindly betting all of them yields a respectable -12% ROI.

Based on the performances of morning-line favorites, downhill turf sprints aren’t any more or less predictable than other turf races at Santa Anita.

Juan Hernandez is one of the top jockeys riding in downhill turf sprints. Whereas several of Santa Anita’s other leading grass riders post lower win rates and ROIs when riding in downhill turf sprints, Hernandez’s numbers (18% win rate, -15% ROI) hardly shift at all from his overall Santa Anita grass stats.

The Santa Anita autumn meet runs from Sept. 25 through Nov. 1. Armed with these Race Lens statistics and takeaways, you’re ready to hit the downhill turf sprints hard. Good luck!

Special thanks to Equibase, which provided me with a free subscription to Race Lens in exchange for product promotion. All opinions remain my own.