The 13th running of the $3 million 1/ST Bet Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes at Kentucky Downs, one of the richest races in North America, drew a full field of a dozen 3-year-old males. In the last two years, the Nashville Derby has been won by horses making their first start in North America with Bellum Justum winning in 2024 and Wimbledon Hawkeye in 2025, both of whom had Frankie Dettori in the irons. Group 2 winners Causeway and Gostam as well as Nil Bua Gan Dua will be shipping in for their first start on this side of the pond for the 2026 edition. Glacius, who won the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Presented by Qatar Racing on Aug. 8, also is based in Europe and will be making his second start in North America. The field of 12 presents many wagering options with value potential across the board.
Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:
Royal Causeway, one of the longest prices on the board at 20-1 morning-line odds, enters off a runner-up finish by a length to fellow Nashville Derby entrant Fancy Sailor in the Water Tower Stakes Presented by Sterling Industrial at Ellis Park. The Not This Time ridgling is trained by Dallas Stewart and will have Cristian Torres in the irons. Royal Guard, an Essential Quality colt trained by Brad Cox, broke his maiden by 4 ¾ lengths at Churchill Downs in June going 1 ½ miles on the turf. He most recently won an allowance at Ellis Park turning back in distance to 1 ¼ miles. Royal Guard has improved his Equibase Speed Figure in every start of his career and will have Florent Geroux back aboard. Saratoga Derby winner Glacius went led from start to finish last time out and represents one of the only horses with early speed in the Nashville Derby for trainer Hugo Palmer. Luis Saez, who was aboard for the Saratoga Derby win, retains the mount on Saturday. Caroline St. Beat will be making his first start outside the state of New York and first start in an open stakes race for trainer Miguel Clement. The Tiz the Law colt is fresh off a win at Saratoga in a state-bred allowance race on Aug. 29 and returns on short rest. Tyler Gaffalione replaces regular rider Manny Franco, who will ride at Saratoga this weekend. Versailles Road, who gave trainer Todd Pletcher his 6,000th career win last time out, ships in from Saratoga and has the highest late pace figure of any horse in this field that has made a start in North America. The Quality Road colt will have John Velazquez aboard for the first time since a maiden race at Keeneland last October. Causeway amassed five straight victories before an unsuccessful bid in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp in France July 14. The streak included a pair of group stakes wins for trainer Aidan O’Brien, who will have just his second starter at Kentucky Downs in the last five years. Ryan Moore makes the trip from Europe to ride Causeway for the first time and has two scheduled mounts on Saturday at Kentucky Downs. Fuzzbuster is cross-entered in two other races over Labor Day weekend, one at Kentucky Downs Sept. 7 and the other at Colonial Downs Sept. 7. He finished fourth by two lengths last time out in the Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes for trainer Victoria Oliver. Mario Gutierrez is named to ride. Fancy Sailor is fresh off a one-length victory in the Water Tower Stakes at Ellis over Nashville Derby contenders Royal Causeway (second) and Blackmail (third). The Justify colt has three wins on the turf, including back-to-back wins under Brian Hernandez Jr., who retains the mount. Trainer Brian Lynch won the Nashville Derby (then Dueling Grounds Derby) in 2023 with Anglophile. Gostam ships in from Germany for trainer Andreas Wohler, who will have his second starter at Kentucky Downs. Gostam started his career with four straight wins, including three group stakes, before he finished eighth in the Group 1 Qatar Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly in France and 10th in the Group 1 Deutsches Derby in Germany in his most recent two starts. Antonio Fresu has been named to ride. Go Grey was claimed by Mike Maker for $100,000 last time out when finishing second at Saratoga in an allowance-optional claiming race going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Jose Ortiz retains the mount for the new barn. The Knicks Go gelding is listed at 20-1 on the morning line for Maker, who won the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Invitational Stakes last year with Ole Crazy Bone in his second start off the claim. Nil Bua Gan Dua ships in from Ireland for trainer Joseph O’Brien and won the Marble City Stakes last time out at Gowran Park at this 1 ½-mile distance. Ben Curtis picks up the mount on the American Pharoah colt. Blackmail rounds out the field for trainer Mark Casse with Javier Castellano aboard. The Not This Time gelding set a pressured pace in the Water Tower Stakes at Ellis Park Aug. 2 but faded to third.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
Royal Causeway offers tremendous value at 20-1 odds on the morning line for trainer Stewart, who won the Untapable Stakes at Kentucky Downs Aug. 30. Royal Causeway began his career last August at Kentucky Downs, finishing fourth in a maiden special weight race while rallying late after trailing the field. This colt is the only contender in this field who has made a start on the Kentucky Downs turf course, which could be key. Royal Causeway took some time to find his groove, failing to win in his first eight starts. However, he has been steadily improving as a 3-year-old and has posted five consecutive improving Equibase Speed Figures going into this race. Royal Causeway broke his maiden in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Churchill on the grass in June in his ninth start, surging past the group in the final strides to earn a 94 speed figure. A month later, he made it back-to-back wins with a similar run, driving past opponents in the final strides while turning back in distance to 1 1/16 miles at Ellis Park in an allowance-optional claiming race, again improving to a 100. Making his stakes debut in the Watch Tower back at Ellis, Royal Causeway stuck to his similar running style, rallying late while steadily moving forward around the final turn. With a slow opening half-mile, the Watch Tower was a tough task for closers at the 1 1/8-mile distance, and he finished second by a length to Fancy Sailor. Despite the runner-up finish, Royal Causeway again improved his speed figure to a 101. He could benefit greatly by stretching out three-sixteenths of a mile and his sire, Not This Time, has five progeny wins from five different horses in the past three years in turf routes at 1 ¼ miles or longer. Royal Causeway certainly faces a class challenge but has a wonderful opportunity to beat the favorites considering his pattern of improvement, experience on this track, and ability to win in the sweltering western Kentucky heat on firm turf, which could prove important against the foreign imports. At 20-1, Royal Causeway is worth a shot.
The Coolmore team is certainly not bringing Causeway from across the pond for no reason, especially considering Aidan O’Brien only has one starter at Kentucky Downs in the past five years. That paired with the fact regular rider Moore will be at Kentucky Downs for just two mounts indicate Causeway could be the real deal. The Wootton Bassett colt was simply spectacular in late 2025 and early 2026, winning five consecutive turf races after a fourth-place finish on debut last September. Causeway won a seven-furlong sprint in October to end his 2-year-old campaign and returned five months later to win a handicap race in his March 3-year-old debut. Causeway then stretched out to a mile at the stakes level at the Curragh in May and was ridden out to a two-length victory under Moore. He then jumped up in class again just 19 days later to the group stakes level in the Grade 3 Gallinule Stakes at the Curragh and won by a head after taking command in the final eighth of a mile. In June, Causeway delivered the best performance of his career, winning the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot when stretching out to 1 ½ miles. Last time out, again at the 1 ½-mile distance, Causeway didn’t fire in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp, finishing last and beaten by 11 ¾ lengths. While it certainly wasn’t a promising performance, Causeway is no doubt a talented colt who could run well on this European-style turf course. He’s a group stakes winner at 1 ½ miles and 1 ¼ miles, with this 1 5/16-mile distance in the Nashville Derby falling in between. Over the past three years, O’Brien and Moore have won at 56% in turf route races in North America with five wins from nine starts, so it is safe to say they make the trip overseas with intent. Causeway’s 5-2 morning-line odds offer little in terms of value, especially at Kentucky Downs, which makes it more appealing to go with a price play on top.
Glacius put on a brilliant front-running performance in the Saratoga Derby going 1 3/16 miles in his stateside debut under Saez, earning a 109 Equibase Speed Figure for that 1 ¼-length victory, which is the highest last out speed figure for any contender in this field. Over the past year, horses in turf route graded stakes races with the highest last out Equibase Speed Figure win at 26% from 226 starts. Glacius shipped to North America in late July for the Saratoga Derby and was coming off three consecutive third-place finishes, leading to his 9.62-1 odds in the Saratoga Derby. The colt certainly turned some heads with that performance after setting solid fractions of :23.02 for the first quarter-mile and :47.29 for the half-mile. A meaningful positive is Saez staying aboard, considering their affinity together and Saez’s ability to be aggressive and win on the front end. With Blackmail and Nil Bua Gan Dua on the far outside as the only other horses to show early speed, Glacius could be alone in front and should definitely be able to finish well and hit the board.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure in a similar race): Royal Guard (95), Caroline St. Beat (92), Versailles Road (98), Fuzzbuster (94), Fancy Sailor (102), Gostam (NA), Go Grey (96), Nil Bua Gan Dua (NA), and Blackmail (102).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Royal Causeway
Causeway
Glacius
