Post positions have been drawn and morning-line odds assigned for a very competitive 152^nd Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 2 at Churchill Downs. The $5 million Derby is set to run at 6:57 p.m. ET and will be broadcast nationwide on NBC and streamed on Peacock.

Read on for Kentucky Derby trifecta betting strategies from the team at America’s Best Racing (use ABR’s handy Gambling Calculator Presented by NYRA Bets to construct your tickets):

Mike Curry

Danon Bourbon (Coady Media)

I left the last round of Kentucky Derby prep races thinking Arkansas Derby winner #1 Renegade was the best 3-year-old, but I’ve lost some enthusiasm with his dreaded inside post draw. The other two runners I really like are #7 Danon Bourbon, an unbeaten Japanese runner, and Santa Anita Derby winner #8 So Happy. Many of the top runners, including Renegade, are closers, and those two have the tactical speed to get a quality trip and get the jump on the opposition. I expect So Happy, because of the name and the many heart-wrenching stories associated with the colt, to be a very popular horse in the win pool. I expect better value in the trifecta pool. I’ll structure my ticket around one of Danon Bourbon or So Happy finishing either first or second.

I can’t eliminate Renegade. He’ll be part of my trifecta play. I loved the Florida races this year, so I’ll add #6 Commandment, #9 The Puma, and #12 Chief Wallabee along with Jeff Ruby Steaks winner #20 Fulleffort. Fulleffort was completely off my radar, but I’ve really liked the way he seems to have handled the dirt main track at Churchill Downs. He’ll be flying late.

Mike Curry’s Kentucky Derby Trifecta ($60 budget):

50-cent trifecta: 7,8 with 1,6,7,8,9,12,20 with 1,6,7,8,9,12,20 ($30)

50-cent trifecta: 1,6,7,8,9,12,20 with 7,8 with 1,6,7,8,9,12,20 ($30)

Noel Michaels

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Many of the major prep race winners on the road to this year’s run for the roses beat very subpar fields in my opinion, and to me the standout 3-year-old competition this winter and spring took place in Florida in races like the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa, Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, and even the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby. Therefore, for my Kentucky Derby selections, I am going to focus entirely on the horses exiting those races. #9 The Puma and #6 Commandment are standout contenders based on their performances in the best preps. Commandment was the most consistently good horse on the road to the Derby this season based three Gulfstream Park prep race wins in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby when he beat #12 Chief Wallabee twice with two gritty performances. The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby over a field that included #18 Further Ado and then came within a nose of holding off Commandment in the Florida Derby. The efforts of both The Puma and Commandment in the Florida Derby were legit. They sat last and next-to-last behind a moderate-to-slow pace, made big moves, and both finished fast separated by noses at the wire.

For the rest of the trifecta, Chief Wallabee should be considered a major danger to hit the top three because he still has loads of upside in what will be just his fourth career race. Further Ado also should be on all tickets too. He won a very subpar running of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes but did so with such authority by 11 lengths that he just can’t be ignored. Further Ado may do his best running at Keeneland, but he also was already a graded stakes winner at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old.

As for #1 Renegade, I like him a lot, but I just can’t bet on him based on the Kentucky Derby rail disadvantage. My plan is to pass on Renegade in the Kentucky Derby and no matter how good or bad he does, bet him back in the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets five weeks from now à la Dornoch two years ago ($37.40 to win in the Belmont).

I’ll stick to my plan of betting the top Florida horses along with Further Ado as outlined above in the trifecta, as follows:

Noel Michaels’ Kentucky Derby trifecta ($36 budget):

$1 trifecta box: 6,9,12,18 ($24)

$1 trifecta: 6,9 with 6,9,12,18 with 6,9,12,18 ($12)

Patrick Reed

Emerging Market (Coady Media)

In a Kentucky Derby with no superstar in the field, I’ll structure my trifecta bets around two colts I think are ready to take the next step in development at just the right time: #12 Chief Wallabee and #15 Emerging Market. Both carry double-digit odds on the Derby morning-line that will probably drop by post time but still be 8-1 or higher. Chief Wallabee has looked like a good one from his very first start, and hopefully Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott adding blinkers for this race will help him finish out his race stronger than in his two Florida stakes preps, where he seemed to dawdle a bit in the late stages.

Emerging Market is even less experienced than Chief Wallabee, but as my colleague Frank Angst pointed out in a recent Derby office chat, most of the contenders in this race have been brought along patiently and lack on-track foundation. That’s the preferred timeline these days for many trainers when preparing a Derby horse. Emerging Market showed a lot of grit in only his second career start to rally and win the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, and like Chief Wallabee he’s been training lights-out at Churchill.

I’ll key Chief Wallabee and Emerging Market on top of a 50-cent trifecta with a handful of other contenders in second and third including main players #1 Renegade, #6 Commandment, and#9 The Puma plus longshots #19 Golden Tempo and #20 Fulleffort. Then, I’ll put my two main horses in the second slot for 50 cents and make one final bet for $2 with Chief Wallabee and Emerging Market finishing first or second above the others.

Patrick Reed’s Kentucky Derby trifecta ($80 budget):

50-cent trifecta: 12,15 with 1,6,9,12,15,19,20 with 1,6,9,12,15,19,20 ($30)

50-cent trifecta: 1,6,9,12,15,19,20 with 12,15 with 1,6,9,12,15,19,20 ($30)

$2 trifecta: 12,15 with 12,15 with 1,6,9,19,20 ($20)

Dan Tordjman

Potente (Coady Media)

It's always fun to bet the Kentucky Derby, and this year's edition is giving us an especially interesting puzzle to solve. The challenge of picking a trifecta got even more complicated when the clear-cut best horse in the field, #1 Renegade, drew the dreaded rail (the inside post position), which is going to make his task significantly harder. It doesn't mean he can't win, I'm just not as locked in on him as I would've been before the draw. That said, I've got my eyes on several horses who are all very much in the trifecta conversation.

#14 Potente is super versatile and he’s got guts (just watch his replays). He can win on the front end or come from off the pace, and that kind of flexibility comes in handy in the Derby. #8 So Happy already beat Potente in their last race and looks set up perfectly to take another step forward. He’ll likely sit off of what figures to be a fast early pace and then pounce late. #19 Golden Tempo is my sneaky longshot pick. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but he has a real knack for showing up late and making noise when it counts. I'm still using Renegade because you don't just fade the most talented horse in the field, and I'll be sprinkling in #7 Danon Bourbon, #12 Chief Wallabee, and #20 Fulleffort across my tickets for some extra coverage and using #3 Intrepido, #6 Commandment, #9 The Puma, #11 Incredibolt, and #18 Further Ado in the third slot only on a backup ticket.

Dan Tordjman’s Kentucky Derby Trifecta ($125 budget):

Main Ticket:

$1 Trifecta, 1,8,14,19 with 1,8,14,19 with 1,7,8,12,14,19,20 ($60)

Backup Ticket:

$1 Trifecta, 8,14 with 8,14 with 1,3,6,7,9,11,12,18,19,20 ($20)

Saver Ticket: 

$1 Trifecta, 7,12,20 with 1,7,12,20 with 1,7,8,12,14,19,20 ($45)