Saturday marks the first 100-point Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve prep of the season with the 113th running of the Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Nine 3-year-olds will line up for the $1 million purse with a total of 200 qualifying points distributed to the top five finishers on a 100-50-25-15-10-point scale. Since its inaugural running in 1894, the Louisiana Derby has produced five Kentucky Derby winners. Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996 are the only two horses to complete the Louisiana and Kentucky Derby double while Funny Cide in 2003, Country House in 2019 and Mandaloun in 2021 (the latter two being elevated to first after DQs), all ran in the Louisiana Derby prior to winning the Kentucky Derby. This year’s edition brings together an intriguing group from around the country.
Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:
California-bred Pavlovian is fresh off a hard-fought nose victory in the Sunland Park Derby for trainer Doug O’Neill, who ships into Fair Grounds for the first time in more than five years. Autobahn, one of two entries for trainer Brad Cox, broke his maiden last time out by 5 ¾ lengths when stretching out to a two-turn route. Chip Honcho, the 3-1 morning-line favorite, enters the Louisiana Derby off a runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes and will be making his fourth consecutive start at Fair Grounds for trainer Steve Asmussen. Universe has not visited the winner’s circle since his career debut and makes his sixth consecutive stakes appearance for the 2024 Kentucky Derby-winning tandem of trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. Golden Tempo will be making his fourth consecutive start at Fair Grounds and third at the graded stakes level for trainer Cherie DeVaux. Spirit of Royal was unplaced in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park last time for trainer Dallas Stewart. Blacksmith ships in from Santa Anita Park for trainer Bob Baffert after breaking his maiden last time out in his fifth career start. The Liam’s Map colt earned a career-best and best in this field 100 Equibase Speed Figure for that 3 ¾-length victory. Cox’s second entrant, Easterly, finished second behind eventual Grade 2 Rebel Stakes winner Class President in his career debut before breaking his maiden by 2 ¾ lengths last time out at Gulfstream when stretching out to two turns. Emerging Market rounds out the field for trainer Chad Brown, and the Candy Ride colt will be making his second career start after a two-turn debut win by Feb. 7 at Tampa Bay Downs.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
While he has just one career start, Emerging Market made a highly impressive debut and appears to have considerable potential. Sent off at odds of 3.20-1 at Tampa Bay Downs, he settled mid-pack along the rail before advancing on the far turn, angling out to the four path. He showed some immaturity at the top of the stretch while exchanging bumps with Powershift, but responded gamely, engaging in a thrilling stretch duel and prevailing by three-quarters of a length. Notably, the runner-up finished 13 ½ lengths clear of the third-place finisher, adding strength to the effort. Emerging Market covered one mile and 40 yards in 1:39.11, less than one second off the track record, and continued strongly through the finish line, suggesting additional distance should be well within his reach. He also benefits from retaining the services of Flavien Prat, who has been in top form in 2026, winning at 29% rate year and 47% over the past 10 days. Brown and Prat have been particularly effective together in dirt route graded stakes races, combining to win at a 31% clip from 45 starts over the past three years while finishing 76% in the money. Although Emerging Market faces a significant class test while stretching out against proven graded stakes company, his debut performance and strong connections suggest he has the talent to make a major impact at an appealing 6-1 odds on the morning line.
Golden Tempo began his career with back-to-back victories, rallying from last in both starts and displaying a powerful turn of foot. The son of Curlin debuted in late December at Fair Grounds in a six-furlong dirt sprint. He was last of 10 and seven lengths off the pace at the second point of call following a slow start before delivering a strong late run to win by 1 ½ lengths under Jose Ortiz. Golden Tempo earned an 85 Equinase Speed Figure for his debut. He repeated that figure in his next outing with another last-to-first rally, this time stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, where he steadily wore down the opposition through the stretch to remain unbeaten. Most recently in the Risen Star Stakes, Golden Tempo finished third while improving to a 90 speed figure, although he was unable to produce the same late punch while closing on a speed-favoring track. Since the Risen Star, Golden Tempo has trained forwardly for DeVaux, including a five-furlong breeze in 1:00.40 on March 6. Ortiz retains the mount for the fourth consecutive start, a positive given their familiarity. Additionally, the DeVaux and Ortiz are winning at 33% in all races at Fair Grounds together over the last three years (26-for-79) and finishing 56% in the money. The addition of blinkers for the first time adds another layer of intrigue, but with proven success at the route distance in graded company, Golden Tempo appears capable of rebounding with an improved effort in this spot.
Chip Honcho is a colt who could benefit significantly from the lack of early speed in this field. In the Risen Star, he was narrowly caught at the finish line after setting the pace throughout, posting quarter-mile fractions of :23.81, :47.49, and 1:11.53 in the 1 1/8-mile race. Heavy favorite Paladin had to work for the Risen Star victory, while Chip Honcho showed both class and stamina in that performance, earning a career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure. Prior to that effort, Chip Honcho broke his maiden with a front-running win on a muddy track at Churchill Downs in November. He subsequently was shipped to Fair Grounds and won the Gun Runner Stakes by three-quarters of a length while pressing the pace. In his 3-year-old debut, he ran a similar stalking style in the Lecomte, finishing fourth by 1 ¾ lengths behind fellow Louisiana Derby contender Golden Tempo. Despite settling for second last time out, Chip Honcho has established himself as a legitimate contender. If he can secure an uncontested lead and dictate moderate fractions, he could prove difficult to catch.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure in a similar race): Pavlovian (87), Autobahn (80), Universe (91), Spirit of Royal (92), Blacksmith (100), and Easterly (85).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Emerging Market
Golden Tempo
Chip Honcho
