Seven Trends to Know When Betting the 2026 Fountain of Youth Stakes

February 23rd, 2026 by J. Keeler Johnson

Fountain of Youth Stakes, Gulfstream Park, ABR, America's Best Racing, Triple Crown, horse racing

Code of Honor wins the 2019 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. (Coglianese Photos/Lauren King)

Recent history can help bettors handicap Saturday’s $250,000 Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Reviewing the last 14 editions of the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier in search of recurring trends common among past winners, the analysis revealed seven angles you can use to gauge the likelihood of any given entrant winning the 2026 Fountain of Youth:

Watch out for late runners

Since the Fountain of Youth adopted its current distance configuration in 2012, nine out of 14 winners (64%) raced outside the top three after the opening half-mile. Speed horses do win the Fountain of Youth on occasion, but overall, late runners perform better.

Year	Winner	Position after first 1/2-mile	½-mile & ¾-mile times (course condition)
2025	Sovereignty	6^th by 5.5 lengths (6 starters)	:47.07, 1:10.68 (fast)
2024	Dornoch	1^st by 1 length (5 starters)	:48.14, 1:11.43 (fast)
2023	Forte	5^th by 2.5 lengths (9 starters)	:47.65, 1:11.84 (fast)
2022	Simplification	7^th by 2.25 lengths (11 starters)	:48.27, 1:12.19 (fast)
2021	Greatest Honour	8^th by 6 lengths (10 starters)	:47.18, 1:11.51 (fast)
2020	Ete Indien	1^st by 0.5 lengths (10 starters)	:46.72, 1:11.30 (fast)
2019	Code of Honor	5^th by 8.5 lengths (11 starters)	:45.69, 1:10.42 (fast)
2018	Promises Fulfilled	1^st by 1 length (9 starters)	:48.39, 1:12.60 (fast)
2017	Gunnevera	7^th by 9 lengths (10 starters)	:47.18, 1:12.37 (fast)
2016	Mohaymen	3^rd by 1.5 lengths (6 starters)	:47.07, 1:11.02 (fast)
2015	Itsaknockout	4^th by 2 lengths (8 starters)	:47.87, 1:11.65 (fast)
2014	Wildcat Red	2^nd by a head (12 starters)	:46.25, 1:10.13 (fast)
2013	Orb	6^th by 8 lengths (9 starters)	:45.45, 1:08.85 (fast)
2012	Union Rags	4^th by 2 lengths (7 starters)	:48.11, 1:12.05 (fast)

Bet horses starting at 5-1 or less

Favorites and short-priced runners perform well in the Fountain of Youth. The top betting choice has prevailed in five of the last 14 editions (a 36% win rate), while horses starting at 5.40-1 or less have won 12 of the last 14 editions (86%).

Favor horses who have not raced this year

Since 2012, horses making their season debut in the Fountain of Youth have compiled a strong 5-for-24 (21%) record. Their win percentage is more than twice as high as horses who raced in January and/or February leading up to the Fountain of Youth, who have compiled a 9-for-99 (9%) tally since 2012.

Sprinters struggle to beat proven route racers

Horses with experience competing in route races (races at one mile or longer) outperform sprinters in the Fountain of Youth. Every winner since 2012 had previously competed in at least one route race, and 11 of the last 14 Fountain of Youth champs had won a route race.

John Velazquez is the top jockey

John Velazquez has a history of success in this race. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Since 2007, John Velazquez has won the Fountain of Youth five times, more than any other jockey this century. He’s also recorded several top-three finishes during the same timeframe.

Look for horses sired by stakes-winning juveniles

Nine of the last 15 Fountain of Youth winners (60%), including the last six in a row, were sired by stallions who won at the stakes level as juveniles. That includes eight stallions who won a graded stakes at age 2.

Favor horses with graded stakes experience

It’s uncommon for horses without graded stakes experience to win the Fountain of Youth. Twelve of the last 14 winners (86%) had previously contested a graded stakes. One of the exceptions was Itsaknockout, who won via the disqualification of graded stakes winner Upstart.

Conclusions

History suggests #3 Talkin is a serious threat to win the 2026 Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Talkin hasn’t raced since ending his 2-year-old season with a subpar ninth-place finish in the 1 1/8-mile Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. He’d previously run well against graded stakes competition when rallying from off the pace to finish second in the one-mile Grade 1 Champagne Stakes.

As a son of 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and champion 2-year-old male Good Magic, Talkin has the pedigree to excel from an early age.

Talkin matches five of our seven historical angles. He doesn’t have John Velazquez in the saddle, and he’s likely to start at odds higher than 5-1, but those are minor knocks. If you want to bet a longshot in the Fountain of Youth, Talkin has the credentials to challenge from a historical perspective.

Enjoy the race!