The $500,000, Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes Saturday at Fair Grounds is the first Championship Series qualifying race in Churchill Downs’ Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule, offering a boost in points distribution whereby 105 total points for the May 2 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are allotted to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale.
The Risen Star drew a field of eight, including three who have won stakes races. Paladin won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes in December, while Golden Tempo won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January. The final stakes winner is Chip Honcho, who won the Gun Runner Stakes in December before posting a fourth-place finish in the Lecomte. Colt Forty Seven is the only one among the other five that has two wins - a sprint and a turf route, both of which were claiming races.
The other four other entrants are maiden winners: Universe won his debut last summer at Saratoga and finished second in both the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes in October and the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, but in his most recent start, the Smarty Jones Stakes in January, he finished seventh. Carson Street notched his first win in December at Fair Grounds, and he then had the lead in the stretch but finished third in the Lecomte. Courting won in New York last fall and then finished fourth in the Remsen, and Quality Mischief scored his maiden win last October at Horseshoe Indianapolis and more recently finished fourth in the Gun Runner and fifth in the Lecomte.
Win contenders and analysis: Golden Tempo and Paladin are the only recent stakes winners in the Risen Star field, and I think that Golden Tempo will likely be a better value as a win bet, whereas Paladin is likely to be the post-time favorite. Golden Tempo has won both of his career starts, and both were run at Fair Grounds. He took a maiden race sprinting on Dec. 20 before his victory in the Lecomte on Jan. 17. In both races, Golden Tempo started in 10th and rallied to fourth at the eighth pole, and in the Lecomte, he inhaled the three horses in front of him, earning an 85 Equibase Speed Figure.
Paladin has also won both of his two career races, although in his first career start, he actually finished second but was awarded the win when first-place finisher Renegade was disqualified. In his second race, Paladin earned a 96 Equibase Speed Figure, winning the Remsen Stakes over Renegade on Dec. 6. Renegade came back for his 3-year-old debut last Saturday and won the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Paladin is trained by Chad Brown, who has had recent success in the Risen Star with 2024 winner Sierra Leone.
Carson Street has improved over his last two races, winning at Fair Grounds on Dec. 4 and earning an 80 Equibase figure, and then earning an 84 in the Lecomte. In the Lecomte, Carson Street stalked in third early before moving to second and taking the lead at the three-quarters pole, where he extended his lead by a half-length at the start of the final eighth, but he could not maintain it, finishing third to Golden Tempo but only a length behind. This colt should improve again Saturday, and if his odds get close to the 15-1 that they were in the Lecomte, he could be a good win wager and should also be used in exactas and trifectas.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, are: Chip Honcho (87), Colt Forty Seven (75), Courting (85), Quality Mischief (86), and Universe (91).
Win contenders in preference order:
Golden Tempo
Paladin
Carson Street
