The Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve heads to Arkansas Saturday with the 19^th running of the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, the first of four qualifying points preps to be held in the coming weeks at Oaklawn Park. Nine newly turned 3-year-old colts will line up to compete for 21 Kentucky Derby points, distributed to the top five finishers on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale. The 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones has produced one Kentucky Derby winner – and that happened two years ago, as fifth-place finisher Mystik Dan trained on to post a memorable upset victory in the 150^th Kentucky Derby for trainer Kenny McPeek (Smarty Jones winner Catching Freedom was fourth).

Here's a look at the Smarty Jones field, starting with Kenny McPeek-trained Universe assigned to the inside (rail) post position. This colt comes into the Smarty Jones having finished third, second, and second in three consecutive graded stakes to close out his 2-year-old campaign. Universe will make his Oaklawn debut Saturday and is set to be ridden for the first time by Joel Rosario. Baytown Dreamer switches back to dirt after five consecutive turf starts and carries hefty morning-line odds of 30-1. Boca Beach Club earned the highest Equibase Speed Figure of any entrant in the race, posting a 98 last time while finishing second in Oaklawn Park’s Advent Stakes in mid-December. The Omaha Beach colt will make his first bid at a route distance with Luis Saez named to ride. Silent Tactic ships in from Woodbine for the Mark Casse stable following a narrow second-place finish in the Grade 3 bet365 Grey Stakes on an all-weather track. Morning-line 5-2 favorite Rancho Santa Fe is undefeated from two career starts for trainer Brad Cox, and Florent Geroux stays aboard after those wins which came at one mile and then 1 1/16 miles. Oscar’s Hope, who has finished first or second in all from career starts, enters fresh off a 2 ¾ length victory in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs in late November for the red-hot Tom Amoss stable. Mark Casse’s second entry, Strategic Risk, romped by nine lengths in Gulfstream Park’s FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at this same 1 1/16-mile distance last time out and retains Javier Castellano in the saddle. Scar Ship won his first race by 9 ½ lengths in career start number three at Delta Downs and then finished second by just a half-length in the six-furlong Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile Stakes at Fair Grounds. Sleepingonfreedom, another Kenny McPeek trainee, rounds out the field with back-to-back wins on the Kentucky circuit. Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount after piloting the Independence Hall colt in his late November victory going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs.  

Analysis and Main Contenders: 

Universe (Eclipse Sportswire)

Universe ranks first in this field by average class with a 94 following three consecutive graded stakes appearances. In his career debut last August at Saratoga, Universe endured significant adversity when he slammed the gate at the start, yet he still unleashed a powerful rally to draw off and win by 4 ½ lengths in a seven-furlong dirt race. That eye-catching debut set the tone for his subsequent strong campaign against top-level competition. The bay colt again encountered trouble in his next start, the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont at the Big A, where he was bumped hard at the break between horses but still finished a respectable third racing a one-turn mile. In October, Universe stretched out to 1 1/16 miles while racing with blinkers removed for the first time and finished runner-up in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs, earning a career-best 92 Equibase Speed Figure. Last time out in Churchill’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Universe delivered another solid effort, finishing second by 1 ¾ lengths to heavily-favored Further Ado. In that 1 1/16-mile race, he rallied late after sitting eight lengths off the pace through six furlongs. Universe faces easier competition in the Smarty Jones, moving from a 109 class rating in the Kentucky Jockey Club to a 93 on Saturday. Trainer Kenny McPeek has historically excelled in non-graded stakes at Oaklawn Park over the past three years, winning at a 27% clip and with a top-three mark of 56% from 41 starts, while returning a strong 85% return on investment. Another notable change is the jockey switch from Brian Hernandez Jr. to Joel Rosario. While McPeek and Rosario have teamed up just once over the past three years, that lone start resulted in a victory with Rattle N Roll in the Tinsel Stakes at Oaklawn on Dec. 20, which also followed a rider change from Hernandez Jr. Despite having just one win from four career starts, Universe has consistently delivered strong efforts against graded stakes company and owns two runner-up finishes at the Smarty Jones’ 1 1/16-mile distance. He fits the bill in this spot, and with a morning-line price of 3-1, offers appealing value while benefiting from meaningful class relief. 

With morning-line odds of 8-1, Oscar’s Hope brings tremendous value to this race for trainer Tom Amoss, who is winning at 44% over the last 10 days, posting four wins from nine starts. Oscar’s Hope has never finished worse than second in his career, taking three trips to the winner’s circle from five career starts. He debuted in August at Saratoga in a six-furlong dirt maiden special weight race and finished a respectable second before going on to dominate by 5 ¾ lengths at the same level, distance and track next time out. In October, Oscar’s Hope shipped to Keeneland and finished second at the allowance level to heavily favored Outfielder before going on to win an allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs, again at the six-furlong distance. Last time out, he stretched out to 7 ½ furlongs at Delta Downs and finished strong, drawing clear to win by 2 ¾ lengths while earning a career-best 93 Equibase figure. Not only does Oscar’s Hope know how to find the winner’s circle, but he also ranks first in late pace with a 107.0 rating. Over the past year, horses in dirt route non-graded stakes with the highest late pace rating in the race are winning at 33% from 417 starts and finishing in the top three  67% of the time. This colt should run well and has an opportunity to be a dangerous contender; however the question remains about his ability to handle two turns. 

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Rancho Santa Fe has been flawless through two career starts and enters the Smarty Jones as a major contender. The Tapit colt debuted last August at Ellis Park in a one-turn mile maiden special weight race and was much the best, winning by 1 ¾ lengths while earning an 86 Equibase figure. He took another step forward in his second start, stretching out to 1 1/16 miles around two turns at Keeneland and improving to earn an 88 figure when posting a narrow half-length victory at the allowance optional claiming level. Both Infiltrate, who finished second in that race, and Grand Mahogany, the third-place finisher, returned to win in their next starts. As noted above, Florent Geroux has been aboard for both of Rancho Santa Fe’s victories and retains the mount in the Smarty Jones, a positive given that Geroux is traveling to Oaklawn for this single mount on Saturday. Trainer Brad Cox, who won this race in 2024 with aforementioned Catching Freedom, has been successful in non-graded stakes at Oaklawn Park over the past three years, winning at a 35% clip and posting a top-three mark of 71% from 34 total starts. While the Smarty Jones represents a step up in class, Rancho Santa Fe has done everything asked of him so far and appears more than capable of delivering another winning performance as he makes his stakes debut. 

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Baytown Dreamer (82), Boca Beach Club (98), Silent Tactic (85), Strategic Risk (86), Scar Ship (90), and Sleepingonfreedom (88). 

Win Contenders in Preference Order: 

Universe  

Oscar’s Hope 

Rancho Santa Fe