Live Longshots and Value Bets for Saturday’s King’s Plate Card

Gambling
King's Plate, Canadian Triple Crown, Woodbine, horse racing, America's Best Racing, ABR
Woodbine fans keep a close eye on the action on the racetrack in this file photo. The venue will host the 167th edition of the King's Plate on Saturday. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

Saturday is the biggest day of the year at Woodbine. The King’s Plate, Canada’s closest facsimile to the Kentucky Derby, headlines a 13-race program just outside Toronto, and we’ll go through the card looking for some value.

We’ll focus on horses with odds of 6-1 or greater on the morning line, and this includes a price in the main event. Let’s get to it …

weekend Television schedule

Friday, Aug. 14: 4:30-6:30 p.m. and 9-11:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Aug. 15: 12:30-2:30 p.m. on FS1; 2:30-3 p.m. and 6-7 p.m. on FS2; 3-6 p.m. on FOX; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Aug. 16: 1-7 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Race #4, $130,000 Maiden Allowance Race, 6 ½ furlongs, turf, 2:03 p.m. ET

#4 Bounce Back (8-1 morning-line odds): The #5 Cattrall is a 2-1 morning-line favorite here. While she wouldn’t be a huge shock, that hits me as a bit too short of a price. Yes, she showed speed last time out, but this is a significant uptick in distance and if trainer Kevin Attard is so bullish on her why does he also send out #1 Crazy Busy?

My preferred alternative is Bounce Back, who’s bred up and down for the grass. She’s by Hard Spun and out of the Twirling Candy mare Bouncy, who’s also produced a horse named Pounce. That one won first time out and went on to annex a pair of graded stakes races on turf. Bounce Back has also been working very, very well for trainer Mark Casse, who always merits respect on days like these.

Because of the pedigree, the connections, and the sharp drills leading up to her unveiling, I’m not sure we’ll get the juicy morning-line price. However, anything at or near those odds would be very, very attractive.

Race #7, $175,000 Bold Venture Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, all-weather surface, 3:46 p.m. ET

#5 G T Five Hundred (6-1 morning line): He sprang a 31-1 shocker in the Grade 2 bet365 Connaught Cup last time out. He won’t be that kind of price on Saturday, but I still think he may provide value.

Unlike several others in here who are stretching out, this gelding cuts back from 7 1/2 furlongs to run in this 6 1/2-furlong spot. That extra sixteenth of a mile makes a big difference, especially to horses that may have some stamina concerns. G T Five Hundred, though, is 4-for-5 at this trip, including a win in the Forego Stakes on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park in February. I also like his versatility. He can be on the lead or rate a few lengths off the top flight.

This is a classy individual with success at this level, and it certainly feels like the right spot for him. Again, we won’t get the price he was a few weeks ago, but there’s still a chance he’s an overlay … albeit less of one!

Race #10, $1 million King’s Plate, 1 ¼ miles, all-weather surface, 6:12 p.m. ET

#3 Baaeed Alynna (30-1 morning line): Let’s get one thing straight: #1 Luster is a formidable favorite. She’s done very little wrong, and John Velazquez takes the trip across the border to ride her against the boys. If she’s right, she’s going to be tough.

However, there’s a lot of speed signed on here, so I’m going fishing for closers. With that, I’ve landed on Baaeed Alynna, who didn’t run well last time out in the Plate Trial Stakes. However, I think that may have been a bounce off of a two-back win where he overcame quite a bit of trouble. He’s only run three times to date, but his lone start last season came against stakes company, and he ran well to be third that day after a tough break out of the gate.

Baaeed Alynna is bred to want every bit of this 1 ¼-mile distance, and I think he’ll get the race shape he wants. He certainly needs to improve but I think that’s a possibility. Given his probable price, I’ll gladly take a swing.


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