Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

The fall racing season at Churchill Downs is in full swing and the track has put together a stellar 11-race card for the Saturday before Thanksgiving. The card is topped by the $300,000, Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes and complimented by several other highly bettable races with full fields. For this weekend’s winners, let’s take a closer look at the Commonwealth Turf Stakes and the preceding claiming race that will offer some good opportunities in the daily double. If we can put together the winners of these two races late in the day, we should close out a winning Saturday at Churchill Downs. Best of luck.

Saturday, Nov. 22

Churchill Downs, Race 9, $76,000 purse claiming race, post time 4:55 p.m. ET

Race 9 is a $50,000 non-winners of two claiming race that will offer good daily double chances when combined with the featured Commonwealth Turf Stakes in race 10. It’s also a good betting race on its own with a field of 12 challengers set to race seven furlongs. The thing that makes this race so attractive for bettors is that the standout contender is being overlooked in the morning line at odds at 6-1. No matter what the tote board says, #9 Timing Difference is the horse to beat in this field. He ran a promising third two starts ago when needing a race in his return from a four-month layoff and earned a speed figure that stands tall over today’s competition. He lost last time when switched to turf and stretched out to a mile in an allowance race where he had no chance at Keeneland, but Saturday he is back on the dirt and back in a spot where he belongs for an unheralded trainer who wins at a high percentage with a small stable. For exactas and trifectas, you can round out your tickets with #8 Good Lord and #10 Colonel Caliente. Good Lord has earned comparatively solid and consistent speed figures at or near this class level while knocking on the door for quite some time, and Colonel Caliente raced within three-quarters of a length of Good Lord two races ago in a race at this distance at Churchill Downs following a solid maiden win at seven furlongs in his previous outing. Keep him in your bets despite the claim away from trainer Mike Maker last time out.

The Play: Bet on #9 Timing Difference (6-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #8 Good Lord (5-1), and #10 Colonel Caliente (8-1). Start a daily double going to the Commonwealth Turf by keying #9 Timing Difference in this race with #2 Troubleshooting, #3 Montador, #6 Mansetti, and #9 Flying Mohawk in race 10.

Churchill Downs, Race 10, $300,000 Commonwealth Turf Stakes, post time 5:25 p.m. ET

Troubleshooting (Eclipse Sportswire)

This year’s Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes has drawn a fascinating 11-horse field of 3-year-old turf horses set to race 1 1/16 miles on the Churchill grass course. The field is loaded with contenders and a couple of X-factors who will make this race more than a little interesting to watch and to wager on. The lukewarm 7-2 favorite is #2 Troubleshooting who is beginning to look like the real deal coming off back-to-back graded stakes wins in the Grade 1 Ainsworth Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs and the Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes at Keeneland. This former turf sprinter successfully stretched out to a mile in the Bryan Station to beat a field that included some of the same challengers he’ll face in this race. Let’s see if he can handle today’s additional half-furlong in what will be his longest race to date. If Troubleshooting can’t manage the added distance, #3 Montador certainly should. Montador has been no worse than second in three turf route starts in a row and even the one loss was only by a head. He’s stepping up versus stakes company for the first time for owner-breeder Godolphin but clearly is on an upwardly mobile career path and should not be overlooked based on solid speed figures and his up-close stalking running style that fits this race perfectly. The big X-factor in this field who you have to include on your tickets is #6 Mansetti, the winner of this year’s King’s Plate at Woodbine, the first leg of Canada’s Triple Crown. He has put together a quality season racing on dirt and all-weather surfaces, but this will be his first-ever race on grass. Can he do it on turf? Well, he’s certainly capable based on speed, form, and ability, and form on Woodbine’s all-weather surface often holds up when horses switch to the grass. Finally, one more X-factor we’ll use for the purposes of the daily doubles will be #9 Flying Mohawk, who will be returning from a six-month layoff and is rated at 8-1 odds on the morning line. Fans might remember him as the runner-up in this spring’s Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, but actually both of his career wins so far came on turf.

The Play: Bet on #2 Troubleshooting (7-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #3 Montador (5-1) and #6 Mansetti (6-1).