A field of 11 talented 3-year-old colts and geldings is set for the 20th running of the $300,000, Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes Saturday at Churchill Downs, with more than half the entrants already boasting a stakes win on their résumé. The lineup includes two Godolphin homebreds, multiple graded stakes winners, and even a Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve contender from last spring, making this one of the most appealing betting races of the weekend.
California Burrito drew the rail post position with Brian Hernandez Jr. riding for the first time. Troubleshooting, the 7-2 morning-line favorite, enters off back-to-back graded stakes wins, both with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, who retains the mount. Montador, a Godolphin homebred Nyquist colt, enters fresh off a two-length victory in an allowance race over Churchill Downs’ turf Nov. 2 for trainer Michael Stidham. Stidham already has tallied two wins from three starts this meet. Anegada drew post 4 for trainer Mike Maker and is coming off a half-length win in the Hawthorne Derby in Chicago. The longest shot on the morning line is Outrunner at 30-1, who be trying to find the winner’s circle for the first time since his career debut at Laurel Park in October 2024. 2025 King’s Plate winner Mansetti ships down from Canada for his first try over turf with regular rider Pietro Moran also making the trip to Kentucky.
Giocoso finished third recently to Troubleshooting in the Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes at Keeneland after starting slow, and gets a jockey switch to Jose Ortiz who will ride for the first time. The second Godolphin homebred in the field, Chapman’s Peak, won his last two starts over turf and earned a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure last time out at Keeneland. Kentucky Derby contender Flying Mohawk will be making his first start since the first Saturday in May for trainer Whit Beckman. This Karakontie colt started his career on the turf and scored his first win on Churchill’s turf course by 5 ¼ lengths last October. He returns to grass for the first time since January. Simulate, a Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider homebred by Kitten’s Joy, is 2-for-3 at the Commonwealth Turf’s 1 1/16-mile distance on turf and will be making his fourth consecutive graded stakes start for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Plensa drew the far outside post for the red-hot Rusty Arnold stable and has won once and finished second once in two career starts at Churchill Downs.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
The two Godolphin horses entered in this race both look tough, with little separation in their running lines on paper – however, Chapman’s Peak gets a slight edge as he has continued to improve with every start. Chapman’s Peak made two starts on turf in 2024, finishing seventh in his debut and a much better fourth in his second start – but after coming back from a nearly nine-month layoff, he has been a different horse at age 3. The son of Quality Road returned in July as a first-time gelding and finished third off the layoff on a sloppy track at Ellis Park in a maiden special weight race that had been taken off the turf. Then, on closing weekend at Kentucky Downs, he scored his first career win racing 1 5/16 miles on that track’s European-style course. Chapman’s Peak then delivered his best effort yet, going gate-to-wire and drawing clear to win a 1 3/16-mile allowance race on turf at Keeneland by 2 ¼ lengths and earning a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure. Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard for both of recent his wins and retains the mount in the Commonwealth Turf. This is a significant advantage considering Ortiz Jr. has been dominating the jockey standings at this Churchill meet, winning at 30% over the last month from 47 starts. Trainer Brad Cox is also having a strong meet, leading Churchill’s standings with 13 wins at a 28% clip. Cox and Ortiz Jr. win at a solid 24% over the past three years, and when focusing solely on turf routes, they have been exceptional, winning at 41% and finishing 65% in the money from 17 starts together with a positive 12% return on investment. Although drawing post 8 is not ideal for Chapman’s Peak given his front-running style, in his race at Kentucky Downs he showed he could win from a stalking position. He was visually impressive in his next race at Keeneland and has every opportunity to improve again here. Considering the strength of his connections (including Cox winning 32% in graded stakes races with Godolphin-owned horses over the past five years), Chapman’s Peak offers solid value at odds of 9-2 on the morning line and could very well steal this competitive race.
Montador, the other Godolphin homebred, also has a strong opportunity to excel in the Commonwealth Turf. Like Chapman’s Peak, Montador shows a lengthy layoff on his running lines, having debuted in August 2024 before returning in July of this year. He finished second on debut in a dirt sprint, then resurfaced at Colonial Downs in a turf sprint where he finished first but was disqualified to seventh, earning a 77 Equibase Speed Figure first off the 11-month layoff. The Nyquist colt made a big step forward a month later at Kentucky Downs, posting his first career win by 3 ¼ lengths in a one-mile turf race and massively improving to a 101 Equibase Speed Figure. On opening weekend of the Keeneland meet in October, Montador returned to narrowly miss by a head in a 1 1/16-mile turf allowance to Tenacious Leader, who then came back to run second by just a neck in the Bryan Station Stakes to Troubleshooting. Despite the runner-up finish, Montador earned a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure in that allowance effort, and he then returned in early November at Churchill Downs to score by two lengths at the same level while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. Montador’s running style fits this race well, as he should be able to settle midpack and launch a well-timed run on the far turn. His numbers support that approach as he ranks second in this field by average speed with an 89 Equibase Speed Figure, including posting back-to-back triple-digit figures this year. Trainer Michael Stidham has had limited starters at Churchill Downs over the past two years, but from 15 runners he has posted four wins (27%) and eight in-the-money finishes (53%) while generating a positive 31% return on investment. It is also worth noting that Stidham has been dominant in turf stakes races at all tracks this year, winning at 38% from sixteen starts, including his lone turf stakes starter at Churchill back in May. Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard Montador last time out, opts to ride Troubleshooting in the Commonwealth Turf, which is slightly concerning, but Luis Saez is a more than capable replacement. Saez has won 23% in turf routes at Churchill over the past year from 74 mounts. Both Godolphin runners could very well finish 1-2, and it will be intriguing to see how the early pace unfolds and which of them secures the best position turning for home.
Troubleshooting is a vulnerable favorite in this race despite his back-to-back graded stakes wins in the Grade 1 Ainsworth Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs and the aforementioned Bryan Station Stakes at Keeneland. The Not This Time colt has spent nearly his entire career sprinting on both dirt and turf, with the latter clearly emerging as his preferred surface. Troubleshooting won his turf debut in his fourth career start, taking a maiden special weight going 5 ½ furlongs at Keeneland back in April. In his next two starts, he ran in allowance company at Churchill Downs at the same distance, finishing second and fourth before scoring his second career win – and first stakes victory – by 2 ¼ lengths in the Dade Park Dash Stakes at Ellis Park on July 4. He returned a month later at Ellis Park and was narrowly caught late in another turf sprint allowance before going on to win the Franklin-Simpson while earning a 109 Equibase figure, the best in the Commonwealth Turf field. Last time out, Troubleshooting faced his biggest test when stretching out around two turns for the first time, and he handled it well, holding on to win the Bryan Station by a neck. However, despite that route victory, it is still questionable whether this colt can stretch out an additional half-furlong in the Commonwealth Turf, especially with proven stakes winners drawn to both his inside and outside. Trainer Greg Foley won three races at the Churchill September meet but is winless (0-for-13) so far in the November meet. One positive, though, is that Tyler Gaffalione stays aboard. Troubleshooting ranks first in this field in average speed with a 92 Equibase Speed Figure and second in average class with a 96. Since he’s collected two graded stakes wins this season, it is tough to leave Troubleshooting out of exotic wagers, but the added distance could prove challenging for this colt.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is California Burrito (98), Anegada (102), Outrunner (97), Mansetti (100), Giocoso (101), Flying Mohawk (97), Simulate (102), and Plensa (102).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Chapman’s Peak
Montador
Troubleshooting
