Welcome to Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we take a look each week at a recent winner on the Road to the Derby schedule from which racehorses earn points toward qualifying for the 1 ¼-mile classic race May 2, 2026, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we take a closer look at Ted Noffey, the one-length winner of the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Oct. 31 at Del Mar. The de facto champion 2-year-old male leads the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 40 points.

Racing Résumé: Ted Noffey has simply been perfect to date. He’s won all four of his starts by a length or more and cemented the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male with his third straight Grade 1 win in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar.

The one-length Breeders’ Cup win followed an 8 ½-length romp in the seven-furlong Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes and a 2 ¾-length triumph in the 1 1/16-mile Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity.

Ted Noffey stalked second betting choice Brant from second as the 4-5 favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was within a half-length of the Del Mar Futurity winner through a half-mile in :46.99. He took command under regular rider John Velazquez entering the stretch and finished with a final quarter-mile in :25.23 to post a clear win over runner-up Mr. A. P.

“I was very confident,” Velazquez said. “He’s an easy horse to ride, really, that’s it. Just let him do his thing and he’s happy, as he’s done every single race.”

Speed Figures: Ted Noffey earned a new career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win, a 10-point improvement from his previous best earned in the Hopeful. Daily Racing Form’s Beyer Speed Figures viewed the Juvenile as in line with his two previous Grade 1 wins as he’s earned a 98 for the Hopeful and a 97 for both the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Those are fast speed figures for a 2-year-old in the fall.

Running Style: Ted Noffey has terrific tactical speed that allows him to stalk or press the pace and pounce when given his cue by Velazquez. That’s a running style that should help keep him out of trouble in prep races on the Kentucky Derby trail and his high cruising speed would also be a big positive in the Kentucky Derby in a 20-horse field.

Pedigree Notes: Ted Noffey is by Spendthrift Farm’s standout stallion Into Mischief, who has been the leading sire in North America every year since 2019. Into Mischief leads Not This Time by more than $7.7 million in progeny earnings in 2025 and is for a seventh straight year in the top slot.

Into Mischief is the sire of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner and Horse of the Year Authentic, 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Mandaloun, and 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, and DraftKings Travers Stakes winner Sovereignty. Sovereignty stands a very good chance to give Into Mischief his second Horse of the Year winner as a sire and both Ted Noffey and Sovereignty should win the Eclipse Award for the 2-year-old male and 3-year-old male divisions, respectively.

Ted Noffey’s dam (mother) is Grade 2-placed stakes winner Streak of Luck, by Old Fashioned. Streak of Luck’s stakes win came at one mile on the grass as did her two graded stakes-placings.

A two-time winner at 1 1/16 miles, Ted Noffey should be able to excel at 1 1/8 miles and then, as for many others, the true distance test will come when he tries 1 ¼ miles for the first time.

Derby Potential: Only two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners (Street Sense in 2006 and Nyquist in 2015) have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. It speaks to how difficult it is to be an elite 2-year-old and carry that form all the way through the first Saturday in May, but also just how hard it is to win the Kentucky Derby. It’s a massive field with the potential for much adversity – a slow start, inclement weather, traffic, pace, 150,000 screaming fans – that makes winning the first jewel of the Triple Crown a combination of having a perfectly tuned 3-year-old Thoroughbred and a roll of the dice.

Ted Noffey has all the ingredients you’d look for in a long-term prospect, but six months is an eternity in horse racing and simply getting a horse to the race in peak condition is a monumental challenge. Can Ted Noffey become the third horse to sweep the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby? Of course … but as always, the contrary opinion is a far, far more likely outcome.