What do you think of when you hear the term turf miler? I think of pure Thoroughbred athletes with explosive finishing speed. It’s my favorite type of race and it’s why I love races like the Coolmore Turf Mile, Woodbine Mile, and of course the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

With the 2025 FanDuel Breeders Cup Mile Presented by PDJF fast approaching, let’s take a deep dive into the history of this race and what the last 25 years of data from 2000 to 2024 tell us about the profile of a race winner. I’ll close by taking a look at the leading contenders for the Nov. 1 race at Del Mar.

Don’t Bet Pacesetters to Win

Tepin in 2015. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Betting a pacesetter in the Breeders’ Cup Mile is akin to lighting your hard-earned cash ablaze. Front-runners have won zero editions of this race over the last 25 years. In fact, the last winner to lead in the Mile from start to finish was Lure in 1992. That’s 32 straight editions of the Mile without a front-running winner for those counting at home. If you absolutely love a pacesetter, consider keying them in second or third.

Yep, It’s a Closers Race

Sixteen of the last 25 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Mile were positioned in seventh place or farther back after the opening quarter-mile and 20 of the 25 were fourth or worse with a median of eighth place. The data is pretty similar after the second point of call: at the halfway mark of the Breeders’ Cup Mile 19 of 25 winners were fifth or worse and 14 were seventh or worse with only four winners among the top three (none in front).

Breeders’ Cup Mile winners have been on average 5.65 lengths back after the first quarter-mile and 5 ¼ lengths back after a half-mile. Only one winner (Tepin in 2015) was within a length of the lead after a half-mile while 15 winners were at least 4 ½ lengths back at that point in the race.

Only TWO winners in the last 25 editions were even in front at the early stretch point of call.

The Origin Story

The two most productive paths to Breeders’ Cup success over the last 25 years have been Europe (10 winners) and Keeneland (eight winners). If you add in Canada, the international pathway jumps to 13 with eight prepping in France, three in Canada, and one each in England and Ireland. The Southern California route through Santa Anita Park has produced three Breeders’ Cup Mile winners in the last quarter-century, but it’s been a long time since the most recent one: Singletary in 2004. Seven of the last 13 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners prepped at Keeneland in either the Turf Mile Stakes or the First Lady Stakes.

The Super Sophs

Three-year-olds have won seven of the last 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but only one was a U.S.-based horse and that was 25 years ago when War Chant won the 2000 edition at Churchill Downs. The last six 3-year-old winners have all been European shippers with three coming in the last seven years. Expert Eye in 2018, Order of Australia in 2020, and Modern Games in 2022 were recent Europe-based 3-year-olds who shipped across the Atlantic to win.

Proven Class vs. Recent Class

Order of Australia shocks in 2020. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Twenty-three of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners had won at the Grade/Group 2 level or above entering the race with 16 established at the top level as Grade/Group 1 winners. The two exceptions were 73.20-1 upset winner Order of Australia in 2020 at Keeneland for legendary Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien and More Than Looks in last year’s edition. The former had never won a stakes race of any sort but had shown some ability when winning back-to-back weight-for-age races in September 2020, while the latter was a Grade 3 winner coming off two straight runner-up finishes in Grade 1 stakes.

Contrast that clear pattern of established class versus recent form, with only 11 of the last 25 Mile winners entering the race off of a win and four coming into the race off an unplaced finish.

One-mile turf races typically feature a chaotic sprint to the finish after a strong early gallop, so don’t dismiss a contender coming out of a start that doesn’t look great on paper if they have proved capable of a big race against quality competition.

A Specialist Race

The Breeders’ Cup Mile is exactly what the name implies – a race for turf milers – and racehorses who excel at that distance dominate. The average distance raced by Breeders’ Cup Mile winners from 2000 to 2024 in the calendar year leading up to the World Championships is 8.25 furlongs, between one mile and 1 1/16 miles. The median is exactly the same.

Only one winner in the last 25 years raced an average distance longer than 8.8 furlongs and that was aforementioned longshot winner Order of Australia. Likewise, only one winner raced an average of less than 7.5 furlongs over the last 25 years, so look for established milers not turf sprinters stretching out to a mile or longer-distance runners cutting back to a mile.

Logical Winners …

Eleven of the last 25 winners (44%) of the Breeders’ Cup Mile left the starting gate at 3.60-1 odds (roughly 7-2) or less with nine favorites (36%) winning the race. Sixteen of the last 25 editions were won by runners at less than 6-1 odds, so in many years the Breeders’ Cup Mile winners is one of the obvious leading contenders. Twelve of the 16 winners at less than 6-1 odds had a Grade/Group 1 win to their credit and the other four were Grade/Group 2 winners. Ten won their final prep race, and the other six finished second (4) or third (2) and none was more than 1 ½ lengths behind the winner in their final prep. Logical Breeders’ Cup winners combine class and form.

… Plus Some Big Surprises

When things go sideways in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, they tend to really veer off track. There have been seven double-digit winners of the last 25 editions, including five that paid more than $50 for a $2 win bet. In other words, absolute shockers. The upsets inflate the average winning odds over the last 25 years of 12.50-1 with a median of 5.10-1, which perhaps illustrates there is a high variance from year to year in terms of predictability. The double-digit longshot winners in the past 25 editions were: Domedriver, 26-1 in 2002; Singletary, 16.50-1 in 2004; Miesque’s Approval, 24.30-1 in 2006; Court Vision, 64.80-1 in 2011; Karakontie, 30-1 in 2014; Tourist, 12.40-1 in 2016; and Order of Australia, 73.20-1 in 2020.

Order of Australia is the lone Breeders’ Cup Mile winner since 2000 with nary a Grade/Group 2 win on his résumé. As noted above, he had only won at the allowance/weight-for-age level for elite European trainer Aidan O’Brien.

Six of these seven longshots entered the race off a defeat with only European 4-year-old Domedriver entering the 2002 Mile off of a Group 2 win in France. Singletary, Miesque’s Approval, Court Vision, and Tourist were U.S.-based runners who preferred to race off the pace and entered the Breeders’ Cup Mile off third-, fourth-, seventh-, and third-place finishes, respectively. The first two were Grade 2 winners and Court Vision and Tourist were Grade 1 winners. French invader Domedriver profiled as a deep closer with an electric turn of foot and Karakontie was a French classic winner at one mile who had fallen off form while trying to stretch out in distance. Four of the seven were dedicated closers with the other three fitting into a closer/stalker or stalker profile, and all were at least 2 ½ lengths back after the opening half-mile.

Which 2025 Contenders Fit the Profile?

Notable Speech (Eclipse Sportswire)

Notable Speech won the Rogers Woodbine Mile in his previous start for the Charlie Appleby-William Buick trainer-jockey tandem that won this race three straight year from 2021 to 2023 with Space Blues, Modern Games, and Master of The Seas. Ideal off-the-pace running style makes him a major player.

Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes upset winner Rhetorical rides a four-race winning streak into the Breeders’ Cup Mile and last year’s BC Mile runner-up Johannes enters off a Grade 2 win in the City of Hope Mile Stakes Presented by MyRacehorse. Rhetorical races a little too close to the pace for my liking in this race but he could factor if he can relax early in a stalking position. Johannes has proven Grade 1 class, rallies from off the pace, and obviously ran well here last year, but it’s been more than 20 years since the winner of this race came out of a California prep. Formidable Man faces the same challenge coming off a California prep win in the Del Mar Mile Stakes Aug. 30, but he’s a Grade 1 winner who is 6-for-6 on the Del Mar turf. That’s impossible to ignore. Coolmore Turf Mile runner-up Program Trading could be dangerous for Chad Brown and might be an appealing price for a Grade 1 winner from a big barn with a nice late turn of foot.

Several European 3-year-olds could be intriguing if they make the trip to Del Mar, starting with recent Prix du Moulin de Longchamp winner Sahlan. The Wooten Bassett colt followed his first group stakes win in August with the Group 1 score at Longchamp, he’s made five of his six starts at a mile, and he held off the talented multiple Group 1-winning 4-year-old Rosallion to win the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp. Henri Matisse finished fifth but only two lengths behind Sahlan at Longchamp on the good to soft turf. He relished the firm ground at Del Mar a year ago in rallying from 11^th of 12 to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf by a neck for Aidan O’Brien. As a 3-year-old in 2025, he won the French Two Thousand Guineas and performed admirably against elite competition. Jonquil lost by a head to Henri Matisse in the French Two Thousand Guineas. He won the Celebration Mile at Goodwood in August and closed willingly for fourth Oct. 4 at Keeneland in the Coolmore Turf Mile. Eight Breeders’ Cup Mile winners have come out of prep races in France like Sahlan and Henri Matisse while eight have prepped at Keeneland like Jonquil. They all look like real win candidates and could offer significant value.

Qirat (Eclipse Sportswire)

Qirat defeated Rosallion and Henri Matisse at 150-1 odds in Qatar Sussex Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’s unplaced in his two most recent starts, but it would be foolish to dismiss a proven Juddmonte Group 1 winner from the barn of trainer Ralph Beckett, especially at what figures to be a big price. 

Females have fared well in the Breeders’ Cup Mile with six wins in the last 25 editions, but that’s a bit skewed by Goldikova’s three straight wins from 2008 to 2010. The two most recent female winners were U.S.-based Tepin in 2015 and Uni in 2019, both of whom came out of the First Lady Stakes. That’s a positive sign for this year’s First Lady winner, deep closer Simply in Front. Possible Japan-based contender Argine is a wild card off her second Group 3 stakes win. Also under consideration for the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff, the 5-year-old mare has won four of her last seven and has not lost by more than a neck in the three defeats. The price could be right on Argine to take a swing.

Cabo Spirit and Almendares ran second and third, respectively, behind Johannes in the City of Hope Mile. The former is a speed horse coming out of a California prep and the latter has never won a graded stakes. They both are stakes winners on the grass at Del Mar, but this looks like a tough spot. Giocoso won the Secretariat Stakes in August at Colonial Downs and showed more speed when fading to finish second in the Gun Runner Stakes most recently. I’d prefer to back a European 3-year-old over a U.S.-based one and I worry that Giocoso might be too close to the pace. Gas Me Up won a Grade 2 in Canada before running third to Notable Speech in the Woodbine Mile. I’m not sure he’s fast enough to turn the tables on that rival and handle a stacked international field. Tough to endorse multiple South African Group 1 winner One Stripe off a fifth in the Woodbine Mile in his North American debut, but trainer Graham Motion has sprung a couple of notable upsets in Breeders’ Cup races on the grass.