The Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve in Florida begins this weekend with the 37th running of the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, a key Derby prep offering 42 qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale. The 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull has proven to be an important early-season indicator, producing three Kentucky Derby winners since its inception. Go for Gin captured the race in 1994 before going on to win the 120th running of the Kentucky Derby, Funny Cide finished fifth in the Holy Bull prior to his run for the roses victory in 2003, and most recently in 2006, Barbaro won the Holy Bull before sweeping the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby in his next two starts. Nine 3-year-olds were entered in the Holy Bull Stakes, but Buetane was withdrawn earlier this week and trainer and co-owner Chad Summers told reporters that there was a high chance Game for It would also be scratched.
Here’s a look at the field from the inside (rail) post position out:
Incredibolt, a Bolt d’Oro colt for the Riley Mott barn, makes his 3-year-old debut with 10 Kentucky Derby points already on his résumé following a 1 ¾ length win in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs in late October. Regular rider Jaime Torres remains aboard. Roger That Dana will be making his fourth career start, all at Gulfstream Park, for trainer Luis Ramirez. The Awesome Slew ridgling finished runner up last time out in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at odds of 23.90-1 with Renzo Rojas, who retains the mount. Project Ace drew post three for trainer Dale Romans. The War of Will colt has a first, second and third at the maiden auction level at Churchill Downs and Keeneland all with Corey Lanerie aboard, who will back in the irons on Saturday. Global Aviator will be making his second career start after winning his debut in a dirt sprint on career debut at Gulfstream Park at the end of November with a last to first rally. Joe Bravo retains the mount for trainer and owner Rohan Crichton. Cannoneer, a $1.75 million yearling purchase, drew post five for trainer Brad Cox. The Into Mischief colt is the 2-1 second betting choice on the morning line and romped by 7 ¼ lengths in his second career start last time out at Churchill Downs, scoring his first win and earning a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, the highest of any horse entered in this field. Nearly, the 9-5 morning-line favorite, has won his last two starts by a combined margin of 14 ¼ lengths on Gulfstream Park’s dirt main track for the Hall of Fame duo of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. Bravaro is undefeated from two starts and is fresh off a win in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes last time out at Belmont at the Big A in late October. Tyler Gaffalione will ride the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee for the first time.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
With morning-line odds of 8-1, Bravaro offers appealing value as an undefeated colt with a stakes victory already on his résumé. The son of Upstart trained sharply over the summer at Saratoga before taking his career debut in a dirt sprint at Belmont at the Big A in late September, earning an 84 Equibase Speed Figure. One month later, Bravaro stretched out to a one-turn mile in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont at the Big A, driving clear in the final three-sixteenths to win by 2 ½ lengths while improving to a 90 Equibase figure. The Sleepy Hollow was an especially notable victory as the third- and fifth-place finishers both returned to dominate their next starts. Bravaro shipped to Palm Meadows following that effort and has trained well since, setting up his return in the Holy Bull following a 98-day layoff. Horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more have been successful in graded stakes races over the past six months, winning at 21% with a 40% return on investment. That group includes Skippylongstocking, who captured last Saturday’s Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes at Gulfstream Park for these same connections. Saffie Joseph Jr. and Tyler Gaffalione have been particularly effective together in dirt routes at Gulfstream Park, winning at a 31% clip over the past three years while finishing in the top three 69% of the time. While Bravaro faces his first two-turn test on Saturday, he has already demonstrated versatility, progression, and the ability to finish strong, making him an intriguing contender at a great price.
Nearly has been highly effective over the Gulfstream Park main track, showing steady improvement with each start. The son of Not This Time finished a distant sixth on career debut at Belmont at the Big A on Oct. 26 before shipping south and winning start number two by a commanding 9 ¼ lengths at Gulfstream Park roughly one month later, jumping from a 58 to an 86 Equibase Speed Figure. He took another step forward in his next outing, stretching out one furlong to seven furlongs in an open allowance optional claiming company at Gulfstream on Jan. 2. Nearly drew clear to win by five lengths over odds-on favorite Confessional, earning a career-best 92 Equibase Figure and continuing a clear progression. The Todd Pletcher trainee currently ranks first in late pace with a 112.5 rating, a meaningful metric given that horses with the top late pace rating in graded stakes on dirt over the past year have won at a 27% clip and finished in the top three 59% from 293 starts. John Velazquez, who was aboard for Nearly’s last two victories, retains the mount and adds another positive to the colt’s profile given their affinity together. Nearly has continued to train sharply since his allowance optional claiming win, including a bullet four-furlong work Jan. 24. While Saturday’s Holy Bull represents this colt’s first attempt at a two-turn route while moving up in class, he has shown both talent and progression, and his pedigree suggests the added distance should be within reach.
Incredibolt is a strong win candidate at fair 9-2 morning-line odds, as he enters the Holy Bull with a clear pattern of improvement. The dark bay or brown colt disappointing fourth, beaten eight lengths, in a dirt sprint at Ellis Park on debut in August, but took a significant step forward when stretched out to a one-turn mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs in September. In that start, he drove clear in the stretch to score by two lengths, improving from a 73 to an 86 Equibase figure. Incredibolt continued his upward progression roughly one month later when stretching out to two turns for the first time in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense Stakes. He rallied strong to win by 1 ¾ lengths over Universe, who returned in his next start to finish second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes behind highly-rated Further Ado. Incredibolt earned a career-best 94 Equibase Speed Figure in the Street Sense, further reinforcing his steady development. The Street Sense has proven to be a productive steppingstone on the Derby trail, as last year’s winner Sovereignty shipped to Gulfstream following a layoff and captured the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in his subsequent start, followed by wins in the Kentucky Derby and other marquee races in a Horse of the Year campaign. Incredibolt has posted a series of sharp workouts at Palm Meadows since the Street Sense and enters as one of only two runners in the field with a prior two-turn victory. While trainer Riley Mott has yet to heat up at Gulfstream this meet, Incredibolt’s form and trajectory suggest he is capable of delivering a strong performance on Saturday and further position himself on the road to the 152nd Kentucky Derby.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is Roger That Dana, Project Ace (83), Global Aviator (80), Cannoneer (99), and Game for It (71).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Bravaro
Nearly
Incredibolt
