Half a Dozen Trends to Consider When Betting the 2026 Louisiana Derby

March 16th, 2026 by J. Keeler Johnson

Epicenter, Joel Rosario, Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown, America's Best Racing, ABR, horse racing

Epicenter, ridden by Joel Rosario, wins the 2022 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. (Hodges Photography/Amanda Hodges Weir)

Before you place your bets for Saturday’s $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, we recommend reviewing the recent history of the 1 3/16-mile, Grade 2 Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier.

Analyzing the past 15 editions of the Louisiana Derby reveals recurring trends you can use to sort through the contenders and determine the most likely winner. Here are half a dozen handicapping angles to keep in mind:

Tactical speed is an advantage

Although the last two editions of the Louisiana Derby have been won by late runners, overall, horses with tactical speed perform best, with 11 of the last 15 winners racing first, second, third, or fourth after the opening half-mile.

Year	Winner	Position after first 1/2-mile	1/2-mile & 3/4-mile times
2025	Tiztastic	9^th by 9.5 lengths (10 starters)	:46.84, 1:11.03 (fast)
2024	Catching Freedom	11^th by 7.75 lengths (11 starters)	:48.33, 1:12.54 (fast)
2023	Kingsbarns	1^st by 1 length (12 starters)	:49.60, 1:14.69 (fast)
2022	Epicenter	3^rd by 1.5 lengths (9 starters)	:47.35, 1:11.69 (fast)
2021	Hot Rod Charlie	1^st by 0.5 lengths (8 starters)	:47.04, 1:11.25 (fast)
2020	Wells Bayou	1^st by 1.5 lengths (14 starters)	:48.00, 1:12.42 (fast)
2019	By My Standards	4^th by 3.5 lengths (11 starters)	:47.68, 1:11.54 (fast)
2018	Noble Indy	2^nd by 1 length (10 starters)	:46.61, 1:11.47 (fast)
2017	Girvin	4^th by 6.5 lengths (9 starters)	:47.00, 1:11.15 (fast)
2016	Gun Runner	3^rd by 2 lengths (10 starters)	:48.24, 1:12.94 (fast)
2015	International Star	7^th by 7 lengths (9 starters)	:48.59, 1:13.27 (fast)
2014	Vicar’s in Trouble	1^st by 0.5 lengths (10 starters)	:47.86, 1:12.14 (fast)
2013	Revolutionary	12^th by 12.25 lengths (14 starters)	:46.34, 1:11.84 (fast)
2012	Hero of Order	2^nd by 1.5 lengths (13 starters)	:47.27, 1:11.55 (fast)
2011	Pants On Fire	2^nd by 1 length (12 starters)	:47.53, 1:12.02 (fast)

Favor horses starting at 9-2 or less

Short-priced horses perform well in the Louisiana Derby. Six of the last 15 winners (40%) were favored, and 11 of the last 15 winners (73.3%) started at 9-2 or less.

Bet horses with graded stakes experience

Horses who previously recorded a top-four finish in a graded stakes have won 13 of the last 15 editions of the Louisiana Derby (86.7%). Six of the last 15 winners (40%) had previously won a graded stakes.

Rosario and Prat are the hot jockeys

Catching Freedom, Flavien Prat, Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown, America's Best Racing, ABR, horse racing

Prat winning 2024 Louisiana Derby on Catching Freedom (Eclipse Sportswire)

Jockeys Joel Rosario and Flavien Prat have combined to win the last five editions of the Louisiana Derby.

Rosario scored aboard Hot Rod Charlie (2021), Epicenter (2022), and Tiztastic (2025), and in between he finished second on Disarm (2023) and fourth aboard Track Phantom (2024).

Prat didn’t ride in the Louisiana Derby in 2021 or 2022, but he won two in a row aboard Kingsbarns (2023) and Catching Freedom (2024) before finishing fourth aboard John Hancock in 2025.

Asmussen, Pletcher are the key trainers

Hall of Fame trainers Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher have recorded five wins apiece in the Louisiana Derby.

Asmussen has struck with Fifty Stars (2001), Pyro (2008), Gun Runner (2016), Epicenter (2022), and Tiztastic (2025). Pletcher has won with Circular Quay (2007), Mission Impazible (2010), Revolutionary (2013), Noble Indy (2018), and Kingsbarns (2023).

Respect horses exiting the Risen Star Stakes

The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds has produced nine of the last 15 Louisiana Derby winners (60%), though only four horses managed to win both races.

Conclusions

History is clear: the most likely winner of the 2026 Louisiana Derby is #3 Chip Honcho, a Steve Asmussen trainee exiting a runner-up finish in the Risen Star Stakes.

Chip Honcho has lots of early speed, so his running style suits the Louisiana Derby. He’s competed twice in graded stakes races and appears very likely to start at odds of 9-2 or less. As a result, Chip Honcho matches five of the six historical angles we’ve outlined, making him a compelling win candidate.

Enjoy the race!