On Oct. 16 of last year, Confessional turned heads in his career debut at Keeneland Race Course, rewarding bettors who backed him at odds of 12.68-1 by winning a seven-furlong maiden race by three lengths. Another 3 ¼ lengths behind runner-up Grand Slam Sam was a Dallas Stewart-trained colt with 16.38-1 odds named Corona de Oro, who was making his second career start after finishing seventh at Churchill Downs in September.

Fast forward nearly six months, and #1 Corona de Oro and #10 Confessional are two of 11 entrants in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes April 11 at Keeneland. The $400,000, Grade 3 Lexington, held at 1 1/16 miles on Keeneland’s dirt main track, is the final qualifying points race on Churchill Downs’ Road to the Kentucky Derby prep schedule, offering 20 points to the winner to help reserve a spot in the May 2 starting gate. However, neither Confessional nor Corona de Oro – nor any other Lexington entrant – will run in this year’s Derby.

Instead, this year’s Lexington shapes up more as a possible prep for the Preakness Stakes, and it’s a wide-open betting race. My approach to wagering on the Lexington will favor both of last fall’s Keeneland runners whom I’ll use in trifecta bets with four other contenders.

After his first-out win, Confessional competed against some of the top Derby prospects over the winter under Brad Cox’s guidance, finishing second to Nearly in a seven-furlong allowance-optional claiming race held at Gulfstream Park and then a fading seventh in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in February. The Sam F. Davis has turned out to be very productive, as winner Renegade romped in the Arkansas Derby and third-place The Puma subsequently won the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby and then finished second by a nose in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa. In his most recent start, Confessional rebounded to finish third in the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County held around one turn. He was outrun late by winner Incredibolt but finished only a neck behind the runner-up.

Now, he’ll move back to two turns and shorten up in distance. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. gets back aboard after two races off and should have Confessional sitting in a good stalking position and ready to move up on the far turn in order to finish strong through Keeneland’s short stretch run for their 1 1/16-mile races.

Corona de Oro appears to be a colt that is finally figuring it out on the track, and might be ready to handle a class jump in the Lexington. After his third last fall to Confessional, he was off for over two months and then returned at Fair Grounds in late January, where he ran well but finished second by a half-length in a six-furlong sprint. Then in early March, the Bold ‘d Oro colt was stretched out to two turns in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Fair Grounds, and he set a pressured pace before drawing away to win by a comfortable 4 ½ lengths. His speed figures this year are among the best in this 11-horse field, and Brian Hernandez Jr., aboard for both of his Fair Grounds races, retains the mount. I expect him to tuck Corona de Oro right behind the early pace and save ground before angling out at the top of the stretch and ideally getting the jump on Confessional.

Limited to a $40 budget, I’ll use these two horses in $1 trifecta boxes with:

• #4 Enforced Agenda, a New York-based stalker who finished third in January’s Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct;
• #7 The Hell We Did, a colt shipping in from Sunland Park who romped by 13 lengths sprinting last month and will try two turns for the first time;
• #9 Ezum, a colt also trained by Brad Cox who blitzed his foes by 19 ½ lengths in a one-mile Colonial Downs allowance on the Virginia Derby undercard; and
• #11 I Did I Did, a Curlin colt who kept good company as a juvenile and showed signs of improvement in his start last month at Colonial when second by a neck.

With my remaining bankroll, I’ll make one more trifecta bet using both Confessional and Corona de Oro first and second with the other four horses in third, and then bet on Corona de Oro to win. (Use ABR’s Gambling Calculator presented by NYRA Bets to construct your tickets.)

Betting strategy on a $40 budget:

$1 trifecta box: #1 Corona de Oro, #4 Enforced Agenda, #10 Confessional ($6)

$1 trifecta box: #1 Corona de Oro, #7 The Hell We Did, #10 Confessional ($6)

$1 trifecta box: #1 Corona de Oro, #9 Ezum, #10 Confessional ($6)

$1 trifecta box: #1 Corona de Oro, #10 Confessional, #11 I Did I Did ($6)

$1 trifecta: #1 Corona de Oro and #10 Confessional with #1 Corona de Oro and #10 Confessional with #4 Enforced Agenda, #7 The Hell We Did, #9 Ezum, and #11 I Did I Did ($8)

$8 win: #1 Corona de Oro

What to say at the betting window:

Keeneland, Race 10, $1 trifecta boxes: 1,4,10 – 1,7,10 – 1,9,10 – 1,10,11

Keeneland, Race 10, $1 trifecta: 1,10 with 1,10, with 4,7,9,11

Keenland, Race 10, $8 to win on 1