The $1 million Pennsylvania Derby drew a field of 10, five of whom faced the tough test of running against Sovereignty and/or Journalism during the Triple Crown or subsequent graded stakes races.
Without arguably the two best 3-year-olds in the country entered, this year’s Pennsylvania Derby adds the intrigue of value from a betting perspective with a very talented field, nonetheless. So Sandy is coming off a career-best performance, earning a 101 Equibase Speed Figure in his narrow loss to Chancer McPatrick in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. Altobelli has a hefty morning line of 50-1, making an ambitious jump in class after finishing last in his two most recent starts at the optional claiming and starter-optional claiming levels. Magnitude was sidelined with an injury after his 9 ¾ length domination in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes in February and came back from surgery to repair a bone chip to again dominate by 9 ¼ lengths in the Iowa Derby. He finished third to Sovereignty in the Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes last time out and looks to repeat his career-best 111 speed figure he earned in the Iowa Derby in July. David of Athens is the most lightly raced of the group, having just three career starts, all with increasing Equibase Speed Figures. He won an allowance race at Ellis Park last time out by 7 ¼ lengths. Happily Delusional comes in with one win from 11 career starts and looks to post an upset for the hometown connections of Louis Linder Jr. and Paco Lopez. Goal Oriented has three consecutive triple-digit Equibase Speed Figures, finishing behind Gosger in both the Preakness Stakes and NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes, and looks to give trainer Bob Baffert his record-extending fifth Pennsylvania Derby win. Baffet has five wins from just 13 starts all-time at Parx/Philadelphia Park. Big Truzz is fresh off a huge effort last time out, powering home to win the Ellis Park Derby by seven lengths while earning a career-best 105 speed figure. Baeza is the 2-1 morning-line favorite coming off three solid performances finishing behind dual classic winner Sovereignty. He earned a career-best 111 Equibase Speed Figure — co-highest figure with Magnitude in the field — for his second-place finish in the Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun at Saratoga July 26. Gosger looms large in post-position nine, coming off two ginormous efforts finishing second by just a half-length to Journalism, earning a 108 Equibase Speed Figure in both the Preakness and Haskell. Mo Plex rounds out the field and is also coming out of the Jim Dandy Stakes.
Analysis and Main Contenders:
Gosger, a Nyquist colt trained by Brendan Walsh, comes into the Pennsylvania Derby in top form after firing a sharp five-furlong bullet workout in :59.60, the fastest of 40 timed workouts at that distance Sept. 12 at Churchill Downs. The Harvey A. Clark Racing Stables homebred has been a model of consistency with two wins and three seconds from five career starts. After breaking his maiden going a mile on the dirt at Gulfstream Park in February, Gosger immediately proved himself at the graded-stakes level with a win in the Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in April. In the Preakness a month later, Gosger certainly turned some heads at odds of 15.50-1 when narrowly getting caught at the finish line when second by a half-length to Journalism. Gosger most recently silenced any remaining doubts about his ability by repeating his Preakness performance in the Haskell Stakes, again running second to Journalism by a half-length and earning a second consecutive 108 speed figure. Walsh has enjoyed some success at Parx over the years as well, with three wins from 12 career starts and eight top-three finishes. Luis Saez, who piloted Gosger in his two previous starts, retains the mount on Saturday. Over the past year, Saez and Walsh are winning at a 27% clip in all races together, posting 10 wins from 37 starts. With his steady progression, sharp recent form, and the absence of Journalism and Sovereignty, Gosger finally has the stage set for a Grade 1 victory.
Baeza has proved one of the most consistent 3-year-olds in an exceptionally talented crop. After breaking his maiden in his third career start at Santa Anita by 4 ¾ lengths with a sharp 104 Equibase Speed Figure, Baeza has faced nothing but the toughest competition. He finished second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, just three-quarters of a length behind Journalism, before running third in both the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets behind the formidable duo of Sovereignty and Journalism. Baeza most recently ran perhaps the best race of his career in the Jim Dandy, finishing just a length behind Sovereignty while posting a career-high 111 speed figure. Sovereignty came back to dominate the Travers by 10 lengths. Over the past year, horses in graded stakes races on the dirt with the highest last-race Equibase Speed Figure in the field are winning at 30% from 308 starts. Notably, there was a jockey switch from Flavien Prat to Hector Berrios from the Belmont to the Jim Dandy and Berrios will be back aboard on Saturday. Regardless of Prat’s incredible talent, Berrios seems to get the best out of Baeza. A half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, Baeza has the pedigree, class, and speed figures to justify his role as the 2-1 morning line favorite.
Mo Plex adds some intriguing value on the outside for trainer Jeremiah Englehart with a jockey switch back to Joe Ramos. A bay colt by Complexity, Mo Plex has been ultra-consistent, posting five wins, a second, and two thirds from nine career starts with his only out-of-the-money finish coming in his most recent start, running fourth behind Sovereignty and Baeza in the Jim Dandy. Originally a sprinter, Mo Plex burst onto the scene with a 10-length romp in his career debut at Belmont at the Big A before sweeping the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes and Funny Cide Stakes at Saratoga during his juvenile campaign. He followed with three straight to-three finishes at the stakes level before winning the Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct in his second race at age 3 while earning a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure. Mo Plex then added the Grade 3 Ohio Derby to his resume, defeating Chunk of Gold, who came back to win the West Virginia Derby by 4 ¼ lengths in his next start. Training sharply into this race, Mo Plex posted a bullet four-furlong drill in :48.00 flat, the fastest of 99 timed workouts at the distance at Saratoga Sept. 13. Proven at the graded stakes level and coming in with strong current form, Mo Plex is a legitimate contender to hit the board at a nice price on Saturday.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure in similar races): So Sandy (101), Altobelli (96), Magnitude (111), David of Athens (103), Happily Delusional (87), Goal Oriented (109), and Big Truzz (105).
Win Contenders in Preference Order:
Gosger
Baeza
Mo Plex
