The Saturday forecast for Jamaica, N.Y., calls for an 84% chance of rain with the precipitation expected to begin at about 10 a.m. ET in the vicinity of Aqueduct, which hosts the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino card.

The featured Wood Memorial Stakes is a 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifying race that offers points to the top five finishers on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale. That means the results on what could be a rain-soaked dirt surface will impact which runners compete in the first jewel of the Triple Crown May 3 in Louisville.

The key part of this blog will be predicting which runners might benefit from some moisture in the track and identifying whose win chances might be compromised, but let’s start with the basics: what is an “off” track?  

In the simplest terms, an “off” is a racing surface rated anything other than fast.

We have previously used the quick explanation below of dirt track conditions you might see/hear on Wood Memorial day:

• good (track): a dirt track that is almost fast.
• wet fast (track): a track that has moisture on the surface that has not had time to impact the base of the surface.
• muddy (track): condition of a racetrack that is wet but has no standing water.
• sloppy (track): a racing surface that is saturated with water and has standing water visible.
• sealed (track): a dirt track that has been floated (packed down) and not subsequently harrowed.

The best predictor for which runners will handle an “off” track is past success. A racehorse who has won or run fast on a wet track is more likely to excel than a horse who has performed poorly, especially if the track is the same one they will be competing on.

Only two runners in the field have ever raced on a dirt track that was not listed as fast. #2 Captain Cook romped by 9 ¼ lengths on a sloppy track at Aqueduct in December 2024 in his second start. It was a maiden race, so the level of competition was not what the subsequent Withers Stakes winner will face in the Wood Memorial, bit it is a very good sign that he seemed to relish the sloppy Aqueduct surface and dominated.

#12 Omaha Omaha, third behind Captain Cook in the Withers and third in the Virginia Derby, also has experience on an “off” track having won an allowance-optional claiming race in November 2024 by seven lengths on a track labeled muddy at Laurel Park. That also is a positive indicator that Omaha Omaha will not be adversely affected by a wet surface, and it might even improve his chances.

Another useful tool for predicting whether or not horses will thrive on an “off” track is the Tomlinson rating, especially in a race like the Wood Memorial in which 10 of the 12 entrants have no experience on an “off” track. Daily Racing Form uses Tomlinson ratings to make an educated guess how racehorses will handle wet tracks based on performance of the horse’s sire and broodmare sire’s progeny on wet tracks. For the Wood Memorial field, the table below lists the contenders from high (best for a wet track) to low:

Most of the runners in the field have a Tomlinson rating that indicates they should handle a wet track, but I might think twice about using #8 Passion Rules and #10 McAfee if I was looking for a longshot. Omaha Omaha, of course, is a reminder that ratings like this are not as strong an indicator of aptitude as previous experience.

From among the favorites, I would be further encouraged if my analysis led me to back any of #7 Grande, #2 Captain Cook, or #1 Rodriguez. Captain Cook has success on an “off” track at Aqueduct and a strong Tomlinson rating. I also think stretch runners like #6 Hill Road, #11 Statesman, and #12 Omaha Omaha (based on past performance) might take a small step forward on an “off” track provided there is enough pace.