The NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Oct. 31 at Del Mar is expected to draw a competitive field of talented 2-year-old fillies, and determining the most likely winner is not an easy task.

Fortunately, history can help us. The following seven historical trends can be used to sort through the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies contenders and determine which filly has the best chance to claim top prize:

Favor Horses With Early Speed

While it’s not impossible for late runners to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, 10 of the last 15 winners (67%) were racing first, second, or third after the opening half-mile.

Rosario and Smith are the Most Successful Jockeys

Rosario after winning 2021 Juvenile Fillies on Echo Zulu (Eclipse Sportswire)

The winningest jockeys in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies history are Mike Smith and Joel Rosario. Each boasts three wins from 13 rides. All three of Rosario’s triumphs have come since 2018.

Favorites Have a Phenomenal Success Rate

Favorites have won 20 out of 41 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (49%). That’s significantly higher than the usual winning percentage for favorites.

Mid-range Longshots Should be Avoided for Win Purposes

Only one filly in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies history has won the race at odds between 8-1 and 16-1, that being Tempera (11.90-1) in 2001.

If you’re going to play against the favorite and other short-priced runners, it’s better to look for big longshots. Fillies starting at 17-1 or higher have won eight editions of the Juvenile Fillies (19.5%), including four since 2013.

Support Proven Grade 1 Performers

Fillies with experience competing at the Grade 1 level have won 22 of the last 24 editions of the Juvenile Fillies. Furthermore, the two runners who defied this trend (Dreaming of Anna, 2006; Awesome Feather, 2010) were undefeated winners of multiple non-Grade 1 stakes, so it takes a special filly to win the Juvenile Fillies without prior Grade 1 experience.

Favor Fillies From the Frizette

The Grade 1 Frizette Stakes is the most influential prep race for the Juvenile Fillies, producing seven of the last 15 winners (47%).

The Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes (four winners, 27%) and Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante (three winners, 20%) are other productive preps.

Experience Running Long is Important

Fillies with experience racing one mile or longer have won 14 of the last 15 editions of the Juvenile Fillies (93%). During this timeframe, only eventual four-time champion Beholder managed to win the Juvenile Fillies in her first start running one mile or farther.

Conclusions

Frizette Stakes winner Iron Orchard. (Eclipse Sportswire)

History suggests the most likely winner of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is Iron Orchard.

Iron Orchard has speed, and she won her first two starts sprinting in gate-to-wire fashion. Then she rallied from less than three lengths behind a fast pace to win the one-mile Frizette, bringing her career record to a perfect 3-for-3.

Iron Orchard’s regular jockey is Joel Rosario, who will remain aboard for the Breeders’ Cup. Throw in the fact Iron Orchard will almost surely start at odds lower than 8-1 — avoiding the pitfall of being a midrange longshot — and she’s a near-perfect match for the profile of a typical Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!