The $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 1 at Del Mar was always going to be the marquee race of the 2025 World Championships, but this year the stakes seem just a bit bigger.

That happens when the prospective field includes the top three finishers from 2024 – Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Japanese star Forever Young – plus star 3-year-old Sovereignty riding a four-race winning streak and fellow Grade 1-winning 3-year-olds Journalism and Baeza. Add in Stephen Foster Stakes winner Mindframe, who in many years would be the race favorite, and you have the makings for an incredible Breeders’ Cup Classic field.

I’m as excited about this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic as I have been about any non-Triple Crown race since, well, probably the 1989 Classic rematch between Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. This is going to be fun!

Every year, I review the history of the race to try to identify some key trends to use to help pick the winner, and this year we’ll analyze the data from the last 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic from 2000 through 2024. Let’s get right to it.

Repeating Ain’t Easy

Sierra Leone (Eclipse Sportswire)

Sierra Leone has his work cut out for him in his bid for a repeat victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Cat Thief was fourth in his bid for a repeat win in the 2000 Classic won by Tiznow and five others also failed in attempts to secure back-to-back Classic wins since then. We’re talking some elite racehorses, too, like Curlin (4^th in 2008), Zenyatta (2^nd in 2010), and Arrogate (5^th in 2017). Tiznow is the only horse – not just in the last 25 years but in the history of the race – who has succeeded in winning back-to-back editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Top of the Class

Twenty-three of the last 25 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic were Grade 1 winners entering the race, including the last 21 in a row. Only Volponi in 2002 and Pleasantly Perfect in 2003 had not won at the Grade 1 level; both were Grade 2 winners entering the race. It probably won’t matter this year because all of the main candidates are established Grade/Group 1 winners, but if you are thinking about getting cute this year (or in future years) with a longshot … this is not the spot. Bank on class!

Quality Prep

Thinking about overlooking a clunker in a Classic contender’s most recent start? Well, don’t! Each of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Classic winners finished in the top three in their final prep race. Sixteen of them won their final prep and it would be 17 if you count Vino Rosso, who finished first but was disqualified and placed second in the 2019 Jockey Club Gold Cup before winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Of the most recent 25 winners, 22 finished first or second in their final prep race.

Beware the Big Apple

More Breeders’ Cup Classic winners have come out of final prep races in New York than all other states combined, with 13 of the last 25 winners making their final prep in the Big Apple. Seven have come via Southern California, with five emerging from the Goodwood (Awesome Again) Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

Incredible Form

Looking at the last 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, one thing you do not want to see on the past performances is an unplaced finish from June through the final prep race. Breeders’ Cup Classic winners won a combined 45 of their 78 prep races in this timeframe for a 57.7% win percentage and finished in the top three in 74 of those starts (95%). In fact, over the last 10 years only one Breeders’ Cup Classic winner had an unplaced finish from June through their final prep: Knicks Go. He finished fourth in the Met Mile June 5, 2021, and then ripped off wins in the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap, Whitney Stakes, and Lukas Classic Stakes before cementing Horse of the Year honors with a Breeders’ Cup Classic win.

They’ve Gotta Figure

The average winning Equibase Speed Figure for the Breeders’ Cup Classic has been 120.9 over the last 25 years with a median of 119. The figures range from a 113 winning figure for Bayern in 2014 to a 130 for Gun Runner in 2017 with 17 winners earning 119 or better. Look over the past performances: if a Classic prospect has never run a race nearly that fast, they very likely are not a viable win contender ... especially older horses with established track records.

Sophomore Standouts

Baeza (Nikki Sherman/EQUI-PHOTO)

Eight 3-year-olds have won the Breeders’ Cup Classic since 2000, and Cat Thief in 1999 was also 3, so make it nine of the last 26. Five of the last 11 winners were super sophomores and three of them did not win their final prep. The point is: 3-year-olds can and do improve significantly at this time of year, often enough to win this race. That bodes well for Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza’s chances in 2025. Sierra Leone’s best Equibase Speed Figure entering last year’s Classic was a 110, but he improved six points to post a 1 ½-length victory followed by fellow 3-year-olds Fierceness and Forever Young rounding out the trifecta. Sierra Leone entered last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic off a third-place finish, beaten by 1 ¾ lengths, in the Travers Stakes.

Classic Style

They say that styles make fights in boxing and, of course, we’ve all heard the old racing adage, “pace makes the race.” So what does recent history tell us about which running styles have been most effective in the 1 ¼-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic? Well, 10 of the 25 winners were press the pace or pace horses and you could push that to 13 if you include the runners who were stalker/press-the-pace types. Eight winners between 2000 and 2024 were on the lead after the first point of call. Of course, five dedicated closers also won (most recently Sierra Leone last year) along with two others who were closer/stalker types, and six Breeders’ Cup Classic winners were 10 lengths back or more after the first half-mile. So, there is no clearly defined preferred style. Focusing on the 10 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic held on dirt tracks in Southern California since 2000, four of the 10 were won by runners who set the pace including Gun Runner in 2017 and Knicks Go in 2021 at Del Mar. It’s worth giving a slight edge to speed horses.

Odds …

Seven favorites have won the Breeders’ Cup Classic over the last quarter-century, including Flightline (0.44-1) in 2022 and White Abarrio (2.6-1) in 2023, and 10 of the last 25 winners prevailed at odds of 3.2-1 or less. It makes sense given some of the data about stellar recent form. But there have also been six winners that paid $20 or more over the last 25 years, so there have been value opportunities: Tiznow paid $20.40 in 2000, Volponi rewarded bettors at $89 in 2002, Pleasantly Perfect paid $30.40 in 2003, Raven’s Pass returned $29 in 2008, Drosselmeyer paid $31.60 in 2011, and Fort Larned rewarded backers at $20.80 in 2012. Sierra Leone last year produced the biggest win payout ($15.80) for a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner since Fort Larned. Perhaps a stellar field could lead to another significant return on investment in 2025.

… and Ends

Twenty of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Classic winners were bred in Kentucky. Seven editions were decided by a margin of a half-length or less, including three by a nose: Tiznow (2001), Mucho Macho Man (2013), and Bayern (2014). Five editions were runaways wins by margins of 4 ¼ lengths or more, including Flightline’s 8 ¼-length romp in 2022. Bob Baffert has won four editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the last 25 years (and in total). No other trainer has more than two wins in the race’s history.

What Does All This Mean for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic?

Sovereignty (Angelo Lieto/NYRA)

Let’s start with the 3-year-olds. Sovereignty was dominant in winning the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, and DraftKings Travers Stakes this spring and summer. He enters the race out of a Grade 1 win in New York that earned a 112 Equibase Speed Figure, just a point off his career-best. He’ll need to run the fastest race of his career to win but appears poised to do so. Sovereignty ticks all the boxes. Preakness Stakes winner Journalism and Pennsylvania Derby winner Baeza also look like win candidates, but to a lesser extent. Journalism has the class and lots of 1s and 2s on his résumé but he would need to boost his Equibase Speed Figure by probably six to 10 points from his 110 top. Journalism was well-beaten by Fierceness at Del Mar at this 1 ¼-mile distance when second in the Pacific Classic Stakes in his final prep. Baeza won the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing, a path only Bayern used in 2014, but earned a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure for the win and looks like he is improving with each start. I prefer Baeza over Journalism.

Nevada Beach is another 3-year-old targeting the Classic. The Bob Baffert trainee won the Goodwood Stakes by 1 ½ lengths and earned a career-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure. He’ll have to run significantly faster but there is upside for a 3-year-old who has never been worse than second and is making his fifth career start for a trainer who knows how to win this race. The price should be right, too. He’s very interesting.

For the older horses, I don’t love seeing the fifth on Fierceness’s past performances in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes on Aug. 2 and only Flightline used the Pacific Classic as a final prep for Breeders’ Cup Classic success in the last 25 years. Still, Fierceness’s win at this track and distance in the Pacific Classic earned a 114 Equibase Speed Figure and he ran a monster race in the Classic a year ago.

Sierra Leone has a win and two seconds in three starts since June, all in Grade 1 races, and comes out of a prep race in New York. I think he’s poised to run a big race but I’m not expecting him to get a perfect setup like he did in this Classic last year when the opening half-mile was run in :44.96 to set up his closing rally. Forever Young won the Nippon TV Hai in his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That was his first start since finishing third in the Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline. He’s never been worse than third in his 12-race career and looks like a viable win candidate and certainly one to include in a trifecta. Mindframe unseated his rider in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes Aug. 31. It wasn’t his fault, but an unplaced finish in his final prep is two strikes against and he hasn’t actually competed in a race from start to finish since winning the Stephen Foster Stakes in June with a 118 Equibase Speed Figure. He’s fast enough to win, I just don’t love his pathway to this race.

Antiquarian won the Jockey Club Gold Cup in New York by 1 ½ lengths, beating Sierra Leone while earning a career-best 113 Equibase Speed Figure. He’s been first or second in his four starts this year and looks like a live longshot. He’ll need to run faster than he ever has, but it’s a small step forward to being a viable win candidate and he also ticks quite a few boxes. He might be a popular upset pick and I understand why.

Locked won the Woodward Stakes in New York in his final prep Sept. 27. That followed a distant third-place finish in the Suburban Stakes Presented by Subourbon in July. He’s a 4-year-old who has a career-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure and looks just a cut below a very talented group. In many years, he’s probably a top-three or -four contender, but I don’t see it this year.