
Ron Turcotte: Secretariat’s Hall of Fame Rider
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
Six Beginner Betting Tools
The rich Kentucky Downs meet is short and sweet, so let’s jump right in and make some money on two of the all-turf meet’s opening Saturday stakes races. For this weekend’s winners, we’ll take a closer look at the Grade 2 Mint Kentucky Turf Sprint Stakes and the DK Horse Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes. The former will serve as a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” race for entry into the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and the latter will be the richest race run in North America outside of the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup. If we can pick these winners, we will be well on our way to a big Saturday at Kentucky Downs. Best of luck.
Saturday, Aug. 30
Kentucky Downs, Race 9, $2,000,000 Mint Kentucky Turf Sprint Stakes, post time 4:52 p.m. ET
The Grade 2 Kentucky Turf Sprint has drawn a full field of 12 horses plus also-eligibles set to compete at six furlongs. #7 Arrest Me Red seems ideally suited for this six-furlong distance at Kentucky Downs based on his allowance win over this course last year when he successfully stretched his speed to 6 ½ furlongs for the victory. He’s a 10-time winner that can be effective at turf or all-weather distances between five furlongs and 6 ½ furlongs, but five might be shorter than his wheelhouse and 6 ½ may be a bit longer than he’d prefer. This race’s six furlongs on this course where he’s already proven looks just right. Turf sprint ace trainer Wesley Ward and jockey Junior Alvarado form a lethal jockey/trainer combination as the pair has won with eight of the 14 (57%) of the horses they’ve teamed up with dating back to last year. Another horse that’s proven on this turf course is #2 Howard Wolowitz, who won the Grade 1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs last year with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. His big losses have come in high-level international races, but returning to this layout against this field he will have an excellent chance to rebound with Ortiz back for the mount. Ellis Park hosted a Kentucky Downs Preview Day earlier this month and the winner of that $250,000 Turf Sprint was #5 Bear River. Those Ellis Preview winners often get overlooked when they come back to run at Kentucky Downs and that seems to be the case with Bear River who is listed at 20-1 on the morning line, but Bear River beat a legit field in that race that included heavy-hitters Coppola and #11 Nobals and he should not be ignored.
The Play: Bet on #7 Arrest Me Red (5-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #2 Howard Wolowitz (7-2) and #5 Bear River (20-1).
Kentucky Downs, Race 10, $3,500,000 DK Horse Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes, post time 5:46 p.m. ET
A full field of 3-year-olds has been assembled for the Grade 3 Nashville Derby going 1 5/16 miles and they’ll be running for the huge purse of $3.5 million including Kentucky-bred funds. It’s a fascinating race that includes several high-profile graduates from the Triple Crown trail including #1 Hill Road (won the Peter Pan Stakes), #5 Burnham Square (won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes), #7 Tiztastic (won the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby),#8 Sandman (won the Arkansas Derby), and #11 Final Gambit (won the Jeff Ruby Steaks). What a race! The real trick to picking the winner and top finishers will be to guess which horses will best handle the grass, and will best be able to handle the distance which is a half a furlong longer than the Kentucky Derby. Of the horses mentioned above, Sandman is perhaps the biggest question mark on the turf but seems to have the biggest upside. His connections have been telling us all year that he wants to run all day, and this race will be a good opportunity for him to prove it. Hill Road is another excellent candidate back on the turf. He won his career debut outing on the grass in Ireland and finally gets some class relief after losing to the likes of Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza in his last two outings. Finally, if you’re a looking for a horse that has already proven his turf credentials, #2 Test Score is the horse for you. He won the Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes two races ago to go along with his win in Keeneland’s Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes Presented by Keeneland Select earlier this year.
The Play: Bet on #8 Sandman (5-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #1 Hill Road (6-1) and #2 Test Score (4-1).