Five Key Trends to Know Before Betting the 2025 Louisiana Derby

March 17th, 2025 by J. Keeler Johnson

Hot Rod Charlie, Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR

Hot Rod Charlie, above winning the 2021 Louisiana Derby, was an experienced graded stakes horse with tactical speed and well-supported by bettors, thus he fit the profile of an ideal candidate to win the race. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Are you planning to bet Saturday’s $1 million, Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds? Reviewing the past 15 years of Louisiana Derby history can simplify your handicapping process. Here are five trends from the recent history of the race that you can use to identify the key contenders in this year’s edition:

Favor horses with tactical speed

Did you know 11 of the last 15 Louisiana Derby winners were positioned in the first four after the opening half-mile? The ability to race on or near the lead is advantageous in the Louisiana Derby.

Year	Winner	Position after first 1/2-mile	1/2-mile & 3/4-mile times
2024	Catching Freedom	11^th by 7.75 lengths (11 starters)	:48.33, 1:12.54 (fast)
2023	Kingsbarns	1^st by 1 length (12 starters)	:49.60, 1:14.69 (fast)
2022	Epicenter	3^rd by 1.5 lengths (9 starters)	:47.35, 1:11.69 (fast)
2021	Hot Rod Charlie	1^st by 0.5 lengths (8 starters)	:47.04, 1:11.25 (fast)
2020	Wells Bayou	1^st by 1.5 lengths (14 starters)	:48.00, 1:12.42 (fast)
2019	By My Standards	4^th by 3.5 lengths (11 starters)	:47.68, 1:11.54 (fast)
2018	Noble Indy	2^nd by 1 length (10 starters)	:46.61, 1:11.47 (fast)
2017	Girvin	4^th by 6.5 lengths (9 starters)	:47.00, 1:11.15 (fast)
2016	Gun Runner	3^rd by 2 lengths (10 starters)	:48.24, 1:12.94 (fast)
2015	International Star	7^th by 7 lengths (9 starters)	:48.59, 1:13.27 (fast)
2014	Vicar’s in Trouble	1^st by 0.5 lengths (10 starters)	:47.86, 1:12.14 (fast)
2013	Revolutionary	12^th by 12.25 lengths (14 starters)	:46.34, 1:11.84 (fast)
2012	Hero of Order	2^nd by 1.5 lengths (13 starters)	:47.27, 1:11.55 (fast)
2011	Pants On Fire	2^nd by 1 length (12 starters)	:47.53, 1:12.02 (fast)
2010	Mission Impazible	5^th by 1 3/4 lengths (13 starters)	:47.89, 1:12.07 (fast)

Short-priced horses perform well

While there have been exceptions, the Louisiana Derby is generally a predictable race. Eleven of the last 15 winners started at odds of 9-2 or less, including six winning favorites.

Graded stakes experience is important

The data is compelling: 13 of the last 15 Louisiana Derby winners had previously finished fourth or better in a graded stakes, including six Louisiana Derby winners who previously won at the graded stakes level. Horses with experience competing against tough competition have an edge over unproven up-and-comers.

Jockeys Joel Rosario, Flavien Prat warrant respect

Prat won 2024 edition on Catching Freedom. (Hodges Photography /Jamie Newell)

Joel Rosario and Flavien Prat have been the dominant Louisiana Derby jockeys in recent years. Rosario won aboard Hot Rod Charlie (2021) and Epicenter (2022) before finishing second on Disarm (2023) and fourth aboard Track Phantom (2024).

Prat didn’t ride in the Louisiana Derby prior to 2023, but he’s won the last two editions aboard Kingsbarns (2023) and Catching Freedom (2024).

Risen Star is the top prep race

The Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds is a pivotal steppingstone to the Louisiana Derby. Nine of the last 15 Louisiana Derby winners exited the Risen Star, though it’s worth noting only four managed to win both races.

Conclusions

History suggests #6 Built (9-2) is the most likely winner of the 2025 Louisiana Derby.

Built, Gun Runner Stakes, Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown, America's Best Racing, horse racing, ABR

Built winning Gun Runner Stakes. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Built has performed well in Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races at Fair Grounds. He led from start to finish in the Gun Runner Stakes to win by 6 3/4 lengths, then raced in the top four during the early stages of the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes and Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on his way to finishing second and third, respectively.

Built has tactical speed and graded stakes experience. He exits the Risen Star and figures to start at odds of 9-2 or less, so he matches four of our five historical trends. The only one he misses is the jockey angle, but he’s slated to be ridden by Jose Ortiz, the runaway leading jockey at Fair Grounds this meet. Look for Built to deliver a strong performance in the Louisiana Derby.

Enjoy the race!