The field for Saturday’s $1 million. Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs is loaded with quality, as six of the seven horses entered have earned more than $1 million in their careers. The Foster is a Win and You’re In qualifying race for the 2025 $7 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic held Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
In total, the leading six contenders have won 38 races and earned nearly $26 million to date. Hit Show ($8.4 million) enters the race off a win in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline. Last year’s Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner, Sierra Leone ($6 million), was last seen finishing third in the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard in his 2025 debut but won the Classic last fall following a similar third-place effort. Mystik Dan ($4.4 million) won the Grade 3 Blame Stakes last month over Churchill’s track and at the mile-and-an-eighth distance of the Stephen Foster. That was Mystik Dan’s first victory since taking the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve last year, a race that Sierra Leone finished second in. Skippylongstocking, a fan favorite who has earned $3.6 million in his career, just won the Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes. First Mission ($2 million) enters the Stephen Foster off a win in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. Mindframe won the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes Presented by Ford on the Kentucky Derby undercard this year at the shorter distance of seven furlongs. Ashcroft rounds out the field, having won two of 12 career races and with fifth- and sixth-place efforts in stakes in his two most recent races.
Analysis of the top contenders:
Trainer Brad Cox has a pair of runners in this year’s Stephen Foster Stakes in Hit Show and First Mission. Combined, these two superb Thoroughbreds have won 15 of their 30 races but have never faced each other until now. Of the pair, I will give First Mission slight preference, and it may be that he will likely offer better odds for a win bet than his stablemate. Why? Because Flavien Prat, who rode First Mission to victory in the Oaklawn Handicap in his most recent start, chooses Sierra Leone as his mount, while Florent Geroux, who rode First Mission in five straight races before that, including three wins, chooses Hit Show. I have absolutely no problem with Luis Saez taking the mount on First Mission in this race, not only because (per Race Lens) Saez and Cox have teamed up to win 16 graded stakes dirt routes in the past five years (from 38 races), but also because Saez rode First Mission to victory in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes in the spring of 2023 and was in the saddle when First Mission finished second by a nose in the 2023 Clark Stakes Presented by Norton Healthcare, the fall equivalent of the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs.
First Mission ran the best race of his career last year when winning the Alysheba Stakes Presented by TwinSpires over Churchill’s track, earning a 115 Equibase Speed Figure. Returning to the races this past February following six months off, First Mission returned to top form with a 114 figure in the Razorback Handicap, finishing third by a neck. Then, in the Oaklawn Handicap on April 19, at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Foster, First Mission ran even more impressively when drawing off late to win by two lengths, equaling his career-best figure of 115. Breaking from the rail in the Foster, Luis Saez can use the horse’s excellent tactical speed to get to the lead, or if another horse wants to have the lead, First Mission can sit in second in the early stages, which is exactly what he did in the 2023 Clark under Saez when he took over with a quarter mile to go and nearly held on to win.
Mystik Dan ran the race of his career 13 months ago when victorious in the Kentucky Derby by a nose over Sierra Leone and Forever Young. That effort earned him a then career-best 109 figure. After a runner-up effort in the Preakness Stakes, Mystik Dan never could get back to that kind of form, ending his 3-year-old campaign with eighth- and sixth-place efforts. Even in his 2025 debut as a more mature 4-year-old, Mystik Dan didn’t appear to be competitive, as he faded to ninth in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes after racing in third for the first three quarters of a mile. Given a little more than three months off, when he returned in May, Mystik Dan found his old form, first losing by a neck in the Lake Ouachita Stakes and earning a new career-best 116 figure, and then easily winning the local prep for the Foster, the Blame Stakes, last month at Churchill Downs. The 112 figure he earned in the Blame can be improved upon in his third start off the layoff, and if Mystik Dan can repeat the 116 (figure) effort from one race before last, this could result in an epic finish Saturday if both First Mission and Hit Show run as expected.
Hit Show won the Lukas Classic Stakes at the 1 1/8-mile distance and at Churchill last fall, earning a solid 108 figure, and then he won the Hagyard Fayette Stakes, also at the distance. Following that, in last year’s Clark Stakes (the same race First Mission nearly won the previous year), Hit Show finished third as the favorite with no visible excuse. In his 2025 debut, Hit Show won the Louisiana Stakes Presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard, but regressed to finish third in the Santa Anita Handicap Presented by Yaamava’ Resort & Casino. Trainer Brad Cox had a lot of confidence in the colt when shipping him to run in the Dubai World Cup in April and was rewarded when Hit Show ran the best race of his career, beating 10 other horses including last year’s Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Forever Young. With that effort, Hit Show earned a stunning 127 Equibase Speed Figure, which if repeated would make him more than formidable in this race. Jockey Florent Geroux has been aboard for the horse’s last six wins including five in stakes races. On June 21 at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Stephen Foster, Hit Show (along with First Mission) put in a very strong workout timed in 59.2 seconds for five furlongs, which was the third-fastest of the day at the distance, so he’s sending all the right signals for another “A” effort.
Three of the other four Foster entrants have all run well enough to win this race in the past, but each has slight knocks in my opinion. Sierra Leone earned a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure when he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November, but prior to that he put in less than stellar efforts in major stakes races when finishing third, second and third. Although he redeemed himself last fall in the Classic, Sierra Leone once again underperformed in his only start so far this year when he finished third as the prohibitive favorite in the New Orleans Classic Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. Since there’s no way to adequately estimate which Sierra Leone is going to show up for the Foster – the Breeders’ Cup version or the one from his other four most recent races – I am taking a stand against him. Skippylongstocking earned a career-best 115 figure winning the Charles Town Classic Stakes last August and he won the Hollywood Gold Cup in his most recent race. The knock on him is that he’s never finished better than third in any of his 10 tries in Grade 1 stakes races, and it appears based on the strength of the top three contenders in this field that record is likely to be zero for 10 when the Stephen Foster is concluded. Mindframe was very impressive winning the Churchill Downs Stakes on May 3 with a 105 figure, but that race was run at seven furlongs. He may be better around one turn as evidenced by the fact he led with an eighth of a mile to go the last two times he ran around two turns, but ended up finishing second both times.
Ashcroft rounds out the field and appears overmatched, with his best effort coming in April 2024 in an allowance race where he earned a 110 figure. Since then, Ashcroft has finished fifth, fifth and sixth and was never in contention in any of those three efforts.
Top Three Win Contenders:
First Mission
Mystik Dan
Hit Show
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