A difficult question faces horseplayers betting Saturday’s $300,000 Woodward Stakes at Aqueduct’s Belmont at the Big A autumn meet: Will #7 Locked bring his “A” game or run below his best?
Locked is the most accomplished horse in the Woodward field. He’s a two-time Grade 1 winner best known for dominating the Santa Anita Handicap Presented by Yaamava’ Resort & Casino by 8 1/2 lengths over a Grade 1 field that included next-out Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show.
If Locked runs to that level in the Woodward, he’ll be tough to beat.
But Locked hasn’t been as sharp in his last two starts. In the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes Presented by Sentient Jet, he trailed for much of the race and passed only a couple of rivals to finish fourth. Most recently in the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes, he lost ground in the homestretch to finish a distant third behind #6 Phileas Fogg.
Locked has taken nearly three months off since the Suburban. Perhaps the rest will help him rebound in the Woodward, but Phileas Fogg is a formidable opponent in their rematch.
Phileas Fogg rarely runs a bad race, especially on the Aqueduct dirt surface, on which he’s a neck away from being undefeated in four starts.
A speed horse who routinely sets or tracks the pace, Phileas Fogg has been in strong form of late. After leading all the way to win the Suburban by a head over Antiquarian, Phileas Fogg put up a good fight in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. He settled in second place behind a runaway pacesetter, led clearly in the stretch, and then tired late to finish third (disqualified to seventh place for interference) behind Antiquarian and 2024 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone.
Phileas Fogg isn’t as accomplished as Locked … at least not yet … but his strong recent efforts and his affinity for Aqueduct suggest he’s the most likely winner of the Woodward.
We suggest betting Phileas Fogg to win and playing him on top of exacta and even trifecta tickets. Underneath, use Locked alongside #2 Post Time and #4 Film Star.
Post Time has placed multiple times at the Grade 1 level, including when second in the 2024 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. As for Film Star, he comes into the race off back-to-back wins in $100,000 allowance-optional claiming races at Saratoga.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$8 to win on #6 Phileas Fogg
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 6, $8 to win on 6
$2 exacta: 6 with 7
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 6, $2 exacta 6 with 7
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$12 to win on #6 Phileas Fogg
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 6, $12 to win on 6
$8 exacta: 6 with 7
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 6, $8 exacta 6 with 7
$2.50 trifecta: 6 with 7 with 2,4 (total cost: $5)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 6, $2.50 trifecta 6 with 7 with 2,4
$2.50 trifecta: 6 with 2,4 with 7 (total cost: $5)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 6, $2.50 trifecta 6 with 2,4 with 7
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Silver Charm: As Tenacious as They Come
Silver Charm: As Tenacious as They Come
