A full field of 14 was entered in the Grade 3, $250,000 Lecomte Stakes Jan. 18 at Fair Grounds. It is the steppingstone to the Risen Star Stakes in February, the Louisiana Derby in March and hopefully the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on the first Saturday in May.

Built won the Gun Runner Stakes at this track and distance four weeks ago, with Magnitude second, so those two may be the ones bettors look to first when deciding favoritism in this race. Tough Catch won the Sugar Bowl Stakes at six furlongs on the same day as the Gun Runner and stretches out to two turns for the first time. Prior to finishing fifth in the Remington Park Springboard Mile last month, Jolly Samurai won the seven-furlong Clever Trevor Stakes. Golden Afternoon finished second in the Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes last fall at this distance, but on turf, then won on turf, and races on dirt for the first time. Innovator, who finished second in the Advent Stakes in early December, led from start to finish in a sprint three weeks ago and stretches out to two turns for the first time, making it very likely he will be in front from the start. Admiral Dennis was the 4-5 favorite in the Gun Runner but stumbled at the start and was never a threat thereafter. Disco Time has won both starts to date and could be a contender. Dapper Moon is in winning form off a sprint victory at Fair Grounds and prior to that finished fourth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Recent maiden winners stepping up in class include Maximum Promise, Mobetterthangood, and Seattle Road. Optical won a one-turn mile race in allowance company when last seen. Calling Card won at that distance one before last but regressed to finish third in first start versus winners in December.

Top contenders:

Innovator winning Dec. 29 race at Oaklawn Park. (Coady Media)

Innovator is the horse the rest of the field will most likely have to catch to win this year’s Lecomte Stakes. The son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic has won just one of seven races to date but has finished second in four others. Last summer when he was still a maiden and coming off a pair of runner-up efforts, Innovator ran in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes but was bumped hard at the break and did not get a good early position, losing any chance he had. Moved back to the maiden ranks in late November, Innovator ran too good to lose, coming up a head short at the finish line and earning a strong 97 Equibase Speed Figure. The winner of that race was the highly regarded Barnes, who won the San Vicente Stakes on Jan. 4 in only the second start of his career. Still very highly regarded by his Hall of Fame trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, who won the 2013 Lecomte with Oxbow, Innovator ran in the Advent Stakes on Dec. 6, leading from the start and finishing second with a 95 figure. Returning three weeks later on Dec. 29 and returned to the maiden ranks, Innovator sailed along on an easy early lead and held on by a neck to win, earning a career-best 101 figure, which is the highest figure earned by any horse in this field. Drawing the ground-saving rail for the Lecomte, Innovator probably will be sent to the front as usual and could establish an easy early lead. Based on his pedigree, Innovator should have no problem running as well at this distance as he did in the shorter race last time out, because not only is he a son of a Derby winner, but his dam produced Carmel Road, who won at a mile then was second at this distance in the 2022 Los Alamitos Futurity. Given all of the above, Innovator is the one to catch — and to beat — in this year’s Lecomte.

Disco Time is unbeaten and untested in two races to date, the most recent of which earned a 96  Equibase Speed Figure. That effort, in a one-turn mile race at Churchill Downs at the end of November, is very likely to be improved upon as he makes his third career start. Disco Time has drawn post-position 11 for the Lecomte, which might be disadvantageous, but he appears to have enough tactical speed to get a decent position before the first turn without losing too much ground. Per a Race Lens query, trainer Brad Cox has an extremely good record in dirt route stakes races for 3-year-old males the past five years, winning 49 of 146 (34%). With the number one jockey for the barn, Florent Geroux, in the saddle, Disco Time appears to be a strong contender in this field.

Dapper Moon shipped in from Kentucky to prep for this race last month. In his first start over the track on Dec. 19, Dapper Moon relaxed in third in the early stages of a six-furlong sprint then moved to lead easily, earning a career-best 98 speed figure in the process. Prior to that, he finished fourth in three straight top races for 2-year-olds, including the Street Sense Stakes at this distance. In that race, Dapper Moon began fifth then moved up aggressively to lead by a half-length with an eighth of a mile to go, before tiring. Now that he’s in winning form, and with a 98 last race figure very close to the 101 top contender Innovator earned in his most recent start, Dapper Moon must be respected when considering our wagers in this race.

Built's Keeneland maiden win. (Candice Chavez/Eclipse Sportswire)

Built took advantage of the fact betting favorite Admiral Dennis stumbled at the start in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds four weeks ago, establishing an easy lead in a field of five and extending his margin throughout the race. The 95 Equibase Speed Figure was a career-best and a nice improvement off the 88 figure earned two months earlier, so that race can be improved upon again, which makes the colt a contender. On the other hand, Built appears unlikely to be anywhere near the early lead in this race on fractions of :24.64, :49.23 and 1:13.77 as he set in the Gun Runner. Built drew the rail in the Gun Runner and gets post-position 13 for the Lecomte, which could be disadvantageous as he will very likely try for a good early position before the first time but will find himself going wide. However, if he is able to establish a mid-pack position without losing too much ground, Built could be competitive once again.

The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Admiral Dennis (97), Calling Card (96), Golden Afternoon (94), Jolly Samurai (83), Magnitude (89), Maximum Promise (77), Mobetterthangood (79), Optical (92), Seattle Road (82), and Tough Catch (96).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:

Innovator

Disco Time

Dapper Moon

Built