Handicapping the $2 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff isn’t an easy task. The 1 1/8-mile race for fillies and mares annually draws a deep field, packed with proven Grade 1 winners.

2023 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Idiomatic

The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Distaff on Nov. 2 at Del Mar is adhering to the usual standard. The prospective field includes a rising star filly (Thorpedo Anna), a few other Grade 1 winners, and a couple of challengers from Japan.

How can we narrow down the contenders to find the most likely winner? Reviewing the recent history of the Distaff can help. The following six trends can help guide you toward the filly or mare with the best chance to visit the Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner’s circle:

Don’t be afraid to bet late runners

If you’re thinking, “the Distaff is a dirt race, so it probably favors horses with early speed,” think again. While many North American dirt races play favorably toward horses with tactical speed, the Distaff is an exception. Did you know 14 of the last 20 Distaff winners (70%) were racing outside the top three after the opening half-mile, including nine (45%) who were positioned no closer than sixth place?

Just as striking, in the last 20 years only one Distaff winner has led after the opening half-mile. Don’t be afraid to beat on late runners in the Distaff — midpack and deep closers regularly outperform speed horses.

Favorites have a strong record

Once in a while you’ll see a longshot win the Distaff, like 49-1 Marche Lorraine in 2021. But it’s far more common to see short-priced horses visit the winner’s circle. Favorites have won 17 out of 40 editions of the Distaff (42.5%), while horses starting at less than 5-1 odds have won 29 out of 40 editions (72.5%). Furthermore, 37 of the last 48 horses (77%) to finish in the Distaff top three started at less than 10-1 odds.

Don’t underestimate horses exiting defeats

While it can be reassuring to bet on Distaff contenders who won their previous start, it’s not uncommon for horses to win the Distaff following a prep race defeat. Over the last 20 years, 11 Distaff winners exited a victory and nine entered off a defeat.

Established Grade 1 winners are tough to beat

Monomoy Girl was a proven Grade 1 winner ahead of her Distaff wins. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Proven Grade 1 winners are tough to beat in the Distaff. They’ve won 17 of the last 20 editions, and two of the horses who defied this trend (Unrivaled Belle and Pleasant Home) had placed second multiple times against Grade 1 company.

Older mares have an edge, but don’t dismiss 3-year-olds

It’s more common for fillies and mares ages 3 and older to win the Distaff; they’ve won 29 out of 40 editions. But 11 wins for 3-year-olds is respectable given how they’re typically outnumbered in the entries by older horses. At least one 3-year-old filly has finished in the Distaff top three in 12 of the last 14 years, so don’t count the youngsters out, especially when betting trifectas.

Bet on horses who ran at Saratoga

Some of the best summer racing takes place at Saratoga Race Course in New York, and it’s common for fillies and mares who competed at Saratoga to win the Distaff in the fall. To be specific, 12 of the last 20 Distaff champs (60%) competed at Saratoga in the year of their Breeders’ Cup triumph.

The Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes is one of Saratoga’s most important Distaff preps. In the last dozen years, Idiomatic (2023), Malathaat (2022), Forever Unbridled (2017), Stopchargingmaria (2015), and Royal Delta (2012) have all used the Personal Ensign as a steppingstone to Distaff success.

Conclusions

As mentioned in the introduction, a deep field is expected to compete in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Key win threats initially included defending Distaff winner Idiomatic, a 5-year-old mare fresh off a romping victory in the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes, but her Oct. 25 retirement ended a bid for a repeat win. That leaves Thorpedo Anna, a sensational 3-year-old filly with four Grade 1 wins under her belt this year, as the expected short-priced favorite, and there’s a lot to like about her from a historical perspective.

But there’s also one problem: Thorpedo Anna is a speed horse who routinely presses the early pace. History suggests that running style is not ideal for the Distaff, and that could be especially true if Thorpedo Anna engages Japanese front-runner Alice Verite too early in the race, setting up a taxing pace battle.

Raging Sea defeated Idiomatic in Personal Ensign. (Eclipse Sportswire)

That’s why bettors should consider Raging Sea as an alternative. During the summer at Saratoga, the 4-year-old filly rallied from behind a speed duel in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes to defeat Idiomatic by a head.

Raging Sea followed up with a late-running triumph in the Grade 2 Beldame Stakes, her third consecutive graded stakes win. Raging Sea’s running style is suitable for the Distaff, and the fact she’s a proven Grade 1 winner (at Saratoga no less) adds to her appeal from a historical perspective. If she starts at under 5-1 in the betting, and with the scratch of Idiomatic that might now be a foregone conclusion, then history suggests Raging Sea is the most likely winner of the Distaff.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!