Two Standouts as Top Win Contenders for 2024 Lecomte Stakes

January 16th, 2024 by Ellis Starr

Lecomte Stakes, Fair Grounds, Eclipse Sportswire

A racehorse circles the paddock before a race on Louisiana Derby day in 2023 at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes Saturday at Fair Grounds brings together a field of eight hoping to earn points on the Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, not to mention snag the $120,000 winner’s share of the purse.

Last month’s Gun Runner Stakes winner, Track Phantom, aims to continue to perform well on the Kentucky Derby trail, while Nash and Next Level need to improve off third- and seventh-place finishes, respectively, in that race. Can Group, who won the Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes on turf in October before a fourth-place effort in the Grade 1 Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, hopes to transfer his competitive form in top company on grass to the dirt. Ethan Energy romped home at Fair Grounds earlier on the same day Track Phantom won the Gun Runner and may be good enough to win the Lecomte, as might be impressive last-out winner Lat Long, noting both are stepping up from maiden wins into stakes ranks for the first time. Awesome Road won his debut last summer but has only seventh- and fifth-place finishes to show for his efforts since. Similarly, Tizzy Indy has won just once in six races, none in stakes or even allowance races. Editor’s Note: Awesome Road will be withdrawn from the Lecomte field per the Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh.

Top contenders

Trainer Brad Cox saddles Ethan Energy and Nash in the Lecomte (Awesome Road will scratch). A Race Lens query reveals how significant Cox has been in 3-year-old graded stakes routes like this one over the last five years, with 18 (of 41) different Cox trainees winning 31 times from in 113 races. Amazingly enough, betting every one of those 113 starters to win would have netted us a 12% profit ($2.24 for every $2 wagered). Included in that group of stakes winners is Instant Coffee, who won the 2021 Lecomte Stakes. Luis Saez rode Instant Coffee that day, and that is one of the reasons I think Ethan Energy may be capable of defeating probable favorite Track Phantom to win the race this year because Saez is coming in from Florida to ride the colt for the first time.

After an inauspicious debut when sixth of 11 in October in a sprint, Ethan Energy was given a couple of months off. Returning Dec. 23 and running at the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Lecomte and in a two-turn race for the first time, Ethan Energy was an entirely different horse than the one who ran in October. In that race, the colt raced in fifth, then fourth, for the first six furlongs. Then on the far turn and with a quarter mile to run, Ethan Energy moved four paths wide to go from fourth and two lengths behind the leader to lead by three lengths with an eighth of a mile to run. Coasting out to a 5 ¼-length win, Ethan Energy earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure. Put in perspective, later on the same day Track Phantom earned a 100 speed figure winning the Gun Runner Stakes at the same distance, with third-place finisher Nash earning a 95 figure. Keeping in mind Track Phantom was making his fourth start in the Gun Runner, all in routes, and that Track Phantom earned the same 94 figure breaking his maiden prior to the Gun Runner, Ethan Energy has enough upside to win this year’s Lecomte Stakes.

That being said, Track Phantom has done everything right to date. After finishing third in his debut at a mile in October, he then improved a lot four weeks later to a then-career-best 93 Equibase Speed Figure when beaten a half-length. Running in a two-turn race for the first time at the end of November, Track Phantom improved again to a 94 speed-figure effort before a 100 figure earned winning the Gun Runner Stakes four weeks ago. This being his second start at Fair Grounds, more improvement might be expected. Jockey Joel Rosario rode Track Phantom to victory in November and gets the return call as the colt looks to make his mark on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Certainly, if Ethan Energy doesn’t improve as expected, Track Phantom should be posing for pictures in the winner’s circle.

Can Group is a graded stakes winner at the distance of the Lecomte, but on turf, having captured the Bourbon Stakes last fall with a visually impressive rally from last of 12 to win by a nose. He wasn’t disgraced when last seen in November in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf as he rallied from 11th to fourth in the final eighth of a mile, beaten a half-length and a head at the finish line for the runner-up spot. That effort earned a strong 105 speed figure, which bodes well for his chances if he can run as well after nearly three months off and moving back to dirt. Trainer Mark Casse won the 2019 Lecomte with War of Will, who had also run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf the previous fall and who transitioned to dirt in a big way, so we can’t rule out the chances of Can Group running similarly well.

The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Awesome Road (81), Lat Long (88), Nash (101), Next Level (83), and Tizzy Indy (72).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:

Ethan Energy

Track Phantom

Can Group