The 150th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve at Churchill Downs is less than two weeks away. The field for the historic 1 1/4-mile contest is more or less set, and handicappers are already analyzing the prospective entries in search of the Derby winner.

The Kentucky Derby has accumulated a storied history since its inaugural running in 1875, but the past 10-20 years are the most important for horseplayers hoping to cash big betting payoffs. Reviewing recent editions of the Kentucky Derby reveals trends and tendencies that recur year after year, helping us sort through the 20-plus contenders and identify horses who best fit the historical profile of a typical Kentucky Derby winner.

With this in mind, we’ve assembled a list of 14 historical trends to aid you in handicapping the run for the roses:

Please note: For the purpose of analyzing historically productive betting angles, we are counting Medina Spirit as the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Although he was later disqualified due to a positive drug test, he remains the winner for determining betting payoffs.

Favor horses with tactical speed

Generally speaking, early speed has been an advantage in recent editions of the Kentucky Derby. Seven of the last 10 winners for betting purposes were racing first, second, or third after the opening half-mile, and that stat would read eight out of 10 if 2019 Kentucky Derby pacesetter Maximum Security hadn’t been disqualified for causing interference on the far turn.

We did see stretch runners prevail in the last two editions of the Kentucky Derby, but it’s worth noting that 2022 featured the fastest half-mile pace fraction in our 10-year sample and 2023 yielded the fastest time for three-quarters of a mile. A damagingly fast pace can give closers a chance to shine, but in years with a normal or slow pace, speed horses are formidable.

Fast finishers prevail more often than not

Since it’s extremely rare for any Kentucky Derby contender to run a race at the 1 ¼-mile distance prior to the first Saturday in May, favoring horses who have shown the ability to finish fast at slightly shorter distances is a sound strategy for identifying horses who can shine at the Derby distance.

Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product (SV Photography)

Specifically, analyzing how fast each Derby contender ran the final three-eighths of a mile of their final prep race has been productive. Horses who negotiated that distance in :38 seconds or less have won 19 of the last 26 Kentucky Derbys (read more detailed information here about this betting angle).

Derby contenders who finished the final three furlongs of their final prep in :38 seconds or less: Domestic Product, Endlessly, Catching Freedom, Forever Young, Fierceness, Honor Marie, Just Steel, Seize the Grey, West Saratoga, Mystik Dan, Resilience, and Track Phantom.

Respect Florida Derby competitors and California shippers

California has been the best place to train for the Kentucky Derby in recent years. Seven of the last 12 horses who crossed the finish line first in the Derby (Medina Spirit, Authentic, Justify, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome, and I’ll Have Another) spent the winter in California and completed the majority of their training at Santa Anita Park, though Authentic, Nyquist and American Pharoah did race outside of California prior to the Derby. Five of those seven competed in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.

During the same timeframe, California has also churned out Kentucky Derby runners-up Exaggerator (2016), Firing Line (2015), and Bodemeister (2012), plus third-place finishers Battle of Midway (2017) and Dortmund (2015).

But the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa at Gulfstream Park has also been an important steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby. Since 2006, Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), Always Dreaming (2017), and Mage (2023) have all used the Florida Derby as a springboard to Kentucky Derby glory, and Maximum Security (2019) would have done the same if not for his Kentucky Derby disqualification.

Derby contenders who trained and/or raced in California during the winter: Stronghold and Endlessly.

Derby contenders exiting the Florida Derby: Fierceness, Catalytic, and Grand Mo the First.

Blue Grass and Wood Memorial alumni have struggled

Blue Grass and Risen Star Stakes winner Sierra Leone. (Coady Photography)

Two of the most historically productive Kentucky Derby prep races are the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct, but it’s been a while since either race produced a Kentucky Derby victor.

The Blue Grass hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner since 2007, when runner-up Street Sense improved to prevail on the first Saturday in May. The last horse to win both races was Strike the Gold in 1991.

The last Wood Memorial runner to take home the roses was runner-up Funny Cide in 2003, and only one Wood Memorial winner in the last 42 years—Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000—managed to complete the Wood Memorial/-Kentucky Derby double.

It’s possible these trends are statistical anomalies overdue to be broken, but the downgrading of the Wood Memorial from Grade 1 to Grade 2 in 2017 is unlikely to help its productivity. In contrast, the Blue Grass has been gaining in importance since returning to dirt after being held on an all-weather track from 2007-2014. But a strict interpretation of the historical data suggests Blue Grass and Wood Memorial alumni shouldn’t be played on top in the Kentucky Derby.

Derby contenders exiting the Blue Grass: Sierra Leone, Just a Touch, Epic Ride, Dornoch.

Derby contenders exiting the Wood Memorial: Resilience, Society Man, Uncle Heavy, and Deterministic.

The two innermost post positions are a disadvantage

It’s hard for horses starting from posts 1 and 2 to work out clean trips in the Kentucky Derby. If they don’t break quickly and race to the front or take back to rally from behind, they run the risk of getting buried inside as their wide-drawn rivals try to save ground around the first turn.

Post 1 is notoriously tricky, and the rail-drawn runner hasn’t taken home first prize since Ferdinand in 1986. But post 2 has experienced an even longer dry spell, going winless since Triple Crown winner Affirmed took the 1978 Derby.

Overall, the data suggests outside posts are preferable, with nine of the last 16 Kentucky Derby winners starting from post-position 13 or wider. That includes Rich Strike (2022) and Big Brown (2008), two runners who broke from the far outside post (20) in their respective races.

A recent victory is beneficial

Sometimes, horses entering the Kentucky Derby off defeats manage to rebound in the run for the roses—Rich Strike and Mage are two recent examples. But on the whole, horses entering off victories have performed best in recent editions of the Kentucky Derby, with last-out winners taking home the roses in nine of the last 13 years. That stat would read 10 of the last 13 if not for the disqualification of Maximum Security.

Almost as impressively, eight of the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners arrived at Churchill Downs undefeated for the season, so it routinely pays to support horses who enter in winning form.

Derby contenders who won their final prep race: Catching Freedom, Domestic Product, Encino, Endlessly, Fierceness, Forever Young, Resilience, Sierra Leone, Stronghold, and T O Password.

Derby contenders undefeated in 2024: Encino, Endlessly, Forever Young, Sierra Leone, Stronghold, and T O Password.

Heavily raced horses are at a disadvantage

Arkansas Derby runner-up Just Steel. (Coady Photography)

Horses who race heavily before the Kentucky Derby have been at a disadvantage in recent years. Since 2005, 17 out of 19 Kentucky Derby winners for betting purposes raced in only two or three races between January and April of their 3-year-old year. The two horses to defy this trend were Country House (who was awarded first place via the disqualification of Maximum Security, who ran three times between January and April) and Medina Spirit.

Along similar lines, horses who competed in three or more Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races and/or graded stakes between January and April have largely struggled in the Kentucky Derby. Only two horses since 2007 (again, Country House and Medina Spirit) have managed to pay off Kentucky Derby win bets after such a busy stakes schedule.

Derby contenders who ran four or more races between January and April: Just Steel, Common Defense, and Epic Ride.

Derby contenders who contested three or more Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races and/or graded stakes between January and April: Catching Freedom, Track Phantom, Just Steel, Mystik Dan, Common Defense, and Hades.

Avoid betting horses with fewer than three lifetime starts

It’s uncommon for horses with only one or two lifetime starts under their belts to qualify to the Kentucky Derby, and you have to go back to Leonatus in 1883 to find the last horse who won the Derby off such a light racing schedule. Leonatus ran only twice before taking home first prize in the Derby.

Derby contenders who have only run once or twice: T O Password.

Give preference to horses who raced at age 2

Between 1883 and 2017, no horse managed to win the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. This powerful angle has taken a couple of hits in recent years, with Justify (2018) and Mage (2023) successfully winning the roses after going unraced as juveniles, but on the whole it remains difficult to win the Kentucky Derby without gaining some racing experience at age 2.

Derby contenders who did not race at age 2: Just a Touch and T O Password.

A race within five weeks or so is beneficial

It’s important for horses to prep for the Kentucky Derby by running within five weeks or so of the first Saturday in May. Since 1956, only two horses (Animal Kingdom and Authentic) have managed to win the Derby off layoffs of six weeks or more, and Authentic’s victory came in a year when the Derby was delayed until September due to COVID-19, which threw traditional prep schedules into disarray.

Derby contenders entering off layoffs of five weeks or less: Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Stronghold, Resilience, Forever Young, Dornoch, Just a Touch, Just Steel, Catalytic, Deterministic, Society Man, Mystik Dan, Encino, Grand Mo the First, Epic Ride, Hades, Uncle Heavy, and Seize the Grey.

Derby contenders entering off layoffs of six weeks or more: Catching Freedom, Endlessly, Track Phantom, West Saratoga, Honor Marie, Domestic Product, T O Password, and Common Defense.

Beware horses who missed the board in the final prep race

Since 1958, without exception, every horse who generated a win payoff in the Kentucky Derby finished on the board (fourth or better) in their final prep race. You have to go back to Iron Liege (fifth in the 1957 Derby Trial Stakes) to find the last horse won the Kentucky Derby after missing the board in his or her final prep run.

Derby contenders who finished off the board in their final prep: Deterministic, Common Defense, Hades, Uncle Heavy, and Seize the Grey.

Grade 1-winning route racers routinely sire Derby winners

UAE Derby winner Forever Young, one of two Japanese-based Kentucky Derby contenders. (Coady Photography)

A horse needs stamina to win the Kentucky Derby, so it’s not surprising that stallions who won at the Grade 1 level racing 1 1/16 miles or farther have enjoyed the most success siring Derby winners in recent years. Twelve of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners (for betting purposes) were sired by Grade 1-winning route racers. The exceptions were Orb, California, Chrome, and Medina Spirit.

Derby contenders sired by stallions who won a Grade 1 stakes racing 1 1/16 miles or farther: Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Catching Freedom, Stronghold, Resilience, Forever Young, Endlessly, Dornoch, Just a Touch, Track Phantom, West Saratoga, Just Steel, Honor Marie, Deterministic, Society Man, Mystik Dan, Encino, Grand Mo the First, Epic Ride, and Seize the Grey.

Derby contenders sired by stallions who did not win a Grade 1 stakes racing 1 1/16 miles or farther: Domestic Product, Catalytic, T O Password, Common Defense, Hades, and Uncle Heavy.

Horses born in January struggle to shine

Between 1983 and 2023, only one horse born in January managed to win the Kentucky Derby, that being Grindstone in 1996. February (11 winners) and March (14 winners) have been the most common birth months for Kentucky Derby winners during that timeframe.

While this data doesn’t account for the possibility of fewer Thoroughbreds being born in January than February and March, it’s also possible horses born in January are less likely to peak on the first Saturday in May than slightly younger horses.

Derby contenders born in January: Common Defense, Deterministic, and Stronghold.

Avoid horses who have raced outside the U.S. and Canada

Nearly 50 years have passed since Bold Forbes in 1976 became the last Kentucky Derby winner to race outside of the U.S. and Canada, having started his career in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico before prepping for the Derby in the U.S.

In the years since, horses who have raced outside of the U.S. and Canada have gone 0-for-46 in the Kentucky Derby. Horses without any racing experience in the U.S. and Canada have likewise struggled, going 0-for-14 since 1992. None of those 14 managed to record top-five finishes.

Derby contenders who have raced outside of the U.S. and Canada: Forever Young and T O Password.

Derby contenders who have raced exclusively outside of the U.S. and Canada: Forever Young and T O Password.

Conclusions

The data is in, and the results are conclusive. History suggests one horse is far and away the most likely winner of the 2024 Kentucky Derby, that being expected favorite Fierceness, the champion 2-year-old male of 2023 after posting a blowout victory in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA.

Champion Fierceness, winner of the Florida Derby. (Gulfstream Park/Janet Napolitano)

Pending the post-position draw (hopefully he doesn’t land in post #1 or #2), Fierceness fits every trend we’ve outlined. He has early speed. He exits a runaway victory in the Florida Derby five weeks ago, in which he ran his final three furlongs in a stellar :36.91. He’s started only twice this year, but started three times as a juvenile. He was born in March, counts 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup winner City of Light as his sire, and has raced exclusively in the U.S.

Bettors who wish to stack the historical trends in their favor have a clear-cut strategy for betting the 2024 Kentucky Derby: play Fierceness to win and key him on top in exotic wagers like the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta. The question is, which horses are most likely to round out the minor awards?

That’s tricky to determine, because many of the other logical contenders are facing multiple historical knocks. Sierra Leone figures to start as the second betting choice, but he came home in more than :38 seconds (:38.02, for the final three furlongs to be exact) when winning the Blue Grass last time out, and he’s a pure deep closer without any tactical speed. Catching Freedom impressed with a fast-finishing victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, but that deep-closing victory came six weeks ago, and it marked his third start in a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier this year. Stronghold exits victory in the Santa Anita Derby, but he came home in a slow :38.69 for his final three-eighths of a mile that day and is a January foal. Group 2 UAE Derby winner Forever Young is undefeated in five starts, but the Japanese-bred colt has raced exclusively outside of the U.S. and Canada and is more of a midpack closer than a speed horse.

This brings us to Resilience as a live longshot. A son of 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 CashCall Futurity winner Into Mischief, Resilience employed pace-tracking tactics to win the Wood Memorial four weeks ago. He finished up nicely that day, running the final three-eighths of a mile in :37.81.

Resilience has started three times this year, and only two of those efforts came in graded stakes or Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers. He was born in March, raced three times as a juvenile, and has competed exclusively in the U.S.

There aren’t many downsides to Resilience’s historical profile. He’s exiting the Wood Memorial and didn’t race in the Florida Derby or train in California, but if you’re willing to forgive those relatively minor shortcomings, there’s a lot to like about Resilience’s chances on the first Saturday in May.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the Kentucky Derby!